2013 Milan-San Remo, 17 March (298km)

[spalco]

But he has to gamble. His previous strategy of just being the strongest rider in the peloton and hulking away from everybody isn't working anymore.

 

[Sleimas]

They'd just sit on his wheel, especially if he's faster than them. If he wins it will be solo, but for that to happen he'll need an insane amount of luck. I can't see it happening with teams like OPQS and Cannondale. Luigi's form isn't spectacular, either.

But there are riders like Nibali who can sit on the wheel ant still lose to Cancellara in a sprint. It just needs to be the right break.

 

[ILovecycling]

I'm sure we'll hear it here last as well, considering he doesn't start

LOL

10chars

 

[gruppeto993]

I was thinking the exact same thing since he has nothing to lose as people like Sagan will wheelsuck to the line if he tries a late attack like last year.

Yeah and the attacks on the poggio or the descent after that are too expected thus all the favourites will be ready and attentive at the front. If he attacks on the flat before the poggio it is unexpected and the favourites will not follow him since they would think its a big gamble. (which it is). It would be even better if one of his team mates, maybe Monfort, tries to go on the cipressa so that cancellara will have him at the front. If they stay away, Monfort can help him on the poggio since he is a good climber.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

But there are riders like Nibali who can sit on the wheel ant still lose to Cancellara in a sprint. It just needs to be the right break.

Nibali is the exception. The other podium contenders can all beat him in a sprint.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Besides, I think Nibali will drop him on the Poggio.

 

[BlenJones2]

I can see GT leading out Ebh... for the chasing group sprint.
OPQS's team is absolutely ridiculous as well

 

[King Boonen]

LOL

10chars

His name is on every list i can find. Does anyone have a link to where it says he isn't starting?

 

[will10]

But wouldn't it be even easier for everyone to sit on his wheel if he does that?

Don't get me wrong, I would love it if he won, but I just can't see a valid tactic for him, especially since it's very likely he'll have no help in the final kms.

See 2008. He was a big favourite then.

I'm not saying he'll pull it off. I'm saying it has happened and could happen again. Easy to say everyone will mark him out of it but it only takes one guy to let a wheel go...

 

[King Boonen]

See 2008. He was a big favourite then.

I'm not saying he'll pull it off. I'm saying it has happened and could happen again. Easy to say everyone will mark him out of it but it only takes one guy to let a wheel go...

Last year Gerrans said he could hardly hold Cancellara's wheel on the descent. If he's in better form this year anything is possible.

 

[gthx_gthx_]

Besides, I think Nibali will drop him on the Poggio.

Last year Nibali was struggling a lot to stay on Cancellara wheels , I am not so sure than Nibali can drop Cancellara so easily on the Poggio , perhaps if it was steeper , but i don't think than Nibbles will be able to drop Cancellara on the Poggio. If fact I see more Cancellara dropping Nibali on the Poggio.

 

[Miburo]

EBH will destroy Sagan creating an upset in this forum

 

[gruppeto993]

does anyone agree that an attack on the flat before the poggio is cancellara's best chance for a win?

 

[spalco]

does anyone agree that an attack on the flat before the poggio is cancellara's best chance for a win?

I would excited if he tries that whether it works or not.

 

[Lanark]

does anyone agree that an attack on the flat before the poggio is cancellara's best chance for a win?

That would be a certain lose. It's even unlikely you can attack on that part of the race, with every team riding as hard as they can to keep their leader in front.

 

[King Boonen]

does anyone agree that an attack on the flat before the poggio is cancellara's best chance for a win?

The descent of the Cipressa for me. If it sticks great, if not he can have another go on the Poggio. Too many strong riders to attack on the climbs, let someone else try that, but on these descents I can see him maybe taking a bit of time.

 

[CraZyCaLL]

His name is on every list i can find. Does anyone have a link to where it says he isn't starting?

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/bouhanni-to-miss-milan-san-remo

 

[King Boonen]

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/bouhanni-to-miss-milan-san-remo

10 char.

 

[will10]

does anyone agree that an attack on the flat before the poggio is cancellara's best chance for a win?

When everybody is doing 60kph? This isn't PCM ;-)

 

[Tom T.]

does anyone agree that an attack on the flat before the poggio is cancellara's best chance for a win?

Not me. I think his best chance is getting away on the descent of the Poggio with another ace descender like Nibali, who is also someone he can outsprint. Or how he won it before, getting away from a small group in the last 2-3 km when everyone starts looking at each other.

Attacking on the flats before the Poggio would be throwing away all of his chances to win.

 

[iZnoGouD]

OK, I see all the discussion...but who are the serious dark horses? Like last year, Canc was supposedly unbeatable right? Sagan is a beast, but, he can be beaten like anyone else.

You never know....

Haussler?

I'm sure the list of "You never knows" can surprise.

In MSR no one is unbeatable

 

[iZnoGouD]

it definately sagan's race to loose, but in sports like cycling it's always very difficult to win something if you're such big favourite as he is. Even more in on day races. I think Moser attacking on cipresa or on poggio very soon would be good defensive strategy for cannondale. I can't wait for the race to begin.

yes but it's easier to be Sagan than to be Cancellara

 

[iZnoGouD]

Besides, I think Nibali will drop him on the Poggio.

no way, poggio is the perfect climb for a rider like cancellara
i dont think anyone can ride it faster than him

 

[cineteq]

*****
Peter Sagan

****

***
Cavendish, Goss

**
Cancellara, Greipel, Gilbert, Pozzato, Moser, Hushovd

*
Bennati, Roelandts, Boeckmans, Santambrogio, Nibali, Boasson Hagen (?), Van Avermaet, ...

Why is Tommeke not a favorite, I mean not only on this list but on the cycling sites? What am I missing here?

 

[jens_attacks]

Why is Tommeke not a favorite, I mean not only on this list but on the cycling sites? What am I missing here?

his history with san remo. not good