2013 Milan-San Remo, 17 March (298km)

[kanari]

I suppose it's time we get a thread for la classica di Primavera - the longest race on the calendar and also one of the most beautiful IMO. It's probably one of the year's races with the best starting fields as it has both sprinters, classics men, puncheurs and GC men all with a chance of victory.

MAP:

PROFILES:

WINNERS:
2012: Gerrans
2011: Goss
2010: Freire
2009: Cavendish
2008: Cancellara
2007: Freire
2006: Pozzato
2005: Petacchi
2004: Freire
2003: Bettini

PRELIMINARY START LIST

FAVOURITES:

It's probably a long time since a major one day race had a bigger favourite than this edition of MSR. With the shape Sagan is in it's difficult to imagine a scenario where Sagan does not win this. Barring accidents I can only see it happening if it comes down to a large group sprint with all the fast sprinters involved, in that case Cav/Goss/Greipel could win it but even in such a scenario Sagan can still win. The last couple editions had some surprising winners however, not many had mentioned Goss and Gerrans as favourites so who knows, maybe this year will throw another surprise at us? The favourites as I see them:

***** Sagan
**** Cavendish, Goss
*** Cancellara, Nibali, Moser
** Pozzato, Hushovd, Greipel, Roelandts
* Gilbert, Boonen, Offredo, Albasini, Thomas

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Hard to looks past Sagan for this. He will take his first monument victory. I think he and Nibali will get to the finish alone together. Sagans biggest threats are Cavendish, Greipel and Degenkolb in that order.

 

[Gloin22]

Hard to looks past Sagan for this. He will take his first monument victory. I think he and Nibali will get to the finish alone together. Sagans biggest threats are Cavendish, Greipel and Degenkolb in that order.

Degenkolb shown absolutely nothing this season so far, no form so far yet.

I'd say Chava stands a really nice chance of good result, maybe even EBH with his first godo result in MSR ?

 

[The Hitch]

1 Sagan
2 Nibali
3 Cavendish

 

[del1962]

Hard to looks past Sagan for this. He will take his first monument victory. I think he and Nibali will get to the finish alone together. Sagans biggest threats are Cavendish, Greipel and Degenkolb in that order.

What makes you think these two will finish alone together, if Sagan wins then there will be a number of people who finish in the group with him

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Degenkolb shown absolutely nothing this season so far, no form so far yet.

No, I know and it's probably more wishful thinking that he will be able to challenge than it is a realistic prediction

What makes you think these two will finish alone together, if Sagan wins then there will be a number of people who finish in the group with him

Because they will be the strongest up Poggio and the strongest descending. I think Nibali and Sagan will get a gap up Poggio and extend it on the descend.

 

[Lanark]

Sagan is certainly the favorite by a mile, but Sanremo is so unpredictable, there could be a dozen things that could go wrong, or split second decisions that determine the result.

A bit of a weird edition though, because outside of Sagan most of the usual favorites for a race like this haven't shown a lot.

 

[Der Effe]

Hard, if not to say impossible, to look past Sagan but I give Roelandts a good chance as well.

 

[luckyboy]

Cannondale podium sweep!

edit: eh for a second I forgot about Nibali ahah :s

 

[King Boonen]

Sagan's form could play against him here. No-one will want to be in a break with him and teams are likely to work together to bring him back.

I'll take an outside bet on Hushovd...

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Hushovd or Cavendish.

BMC's team so far:
EVANS Cadel Australia
GILBERT Philippe Belgium
HUSHOVD Thor Norway
VAN AVERMAET Greg Belgium

They probably want the pace to be high.

 

[PedalCastro]

Love this race, one of my favorites.
Hard to look past Sagan but I wouldnt discount Pozzato

 

[Climbing]

How much flat this year, after the end of the descent?

 

[Ruudz0r]

1. Sagan
2. Thomas
3. GVA

 

[kanari]

How much flat this year, after the end of the descent?

Looks like 2.85km:

 

[SafeBet]

I'm trying to find a reason not to say Sagan. I really can't find one.

 

[l.Harm]

3 km according to the profile

 

[movingtarget]

Hushovd or Cavendish.

BMC's team so far:
EVANS Cadel Australia
GILBERT Philippe Belgium
HUSHOVD Thor Norway
VAN AVERMAET Greg Belgium

They probably want the pace to be high.

Evans ? I thought his next race was Criterium International. No one has mentioned last year's winner Gerrans but I think he has to be included amongst the possibles again.

 

[Pentacycle]

Sagan's form could play against him here. No-one will want to be in a break with him and teams are likely to work together to bring him back.

I'll take an outside bet on Hushovd...

And just because he doesn't even need to attack, he's by far the biggest favourite for this race.

 

[Parrulo]

Looks like 2.85km:

they really need to reduce that to give a lone attacker a better chance

 

[movingtarget]

Hushovd or Cavendish.

BMC's team so far:
EVANS Cadel Australia
GILBERT Philippe Belgium
HUSHOVD Thor Norway
VAN AVERMAET Greg Belgium

They probably want the pace to be high.

Evan's website confirms as of yesterday that he is not riding MSR. Cadel advised that he was having some family time at home before heading off for the Criterium International.

 

[Winterfold]

I think Gilbert will be there at the end. He looked good on the last road sage in P-N.

Difficult to see how to beat Sagan though. Unless a lot of teams work for a bunch sprint, and Cav or Greipel get to the finish very fresh. Even then Sagan could still win.

 

[Netserk]

they really need to reduce that to give a lone attacker a better chance

I think it's a fine distance. Sagan could very well solo from the Poggio.

 

[will10]

Pippo Pozzato.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Evan's website confirms as of yesterday that he is not riding MSR. Cadel advised that he was having some family time at home before heading off for the Criterium International.

thanks.

re Gerrans. He should be on the list as outsider, but he appears to be struggling a bit. Can he get in top shape?