2013 Santos Tour Down Under Stage 1: Prospect -> Lobethal, 135km

Jun 16, 2009
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2013 Santos Tour Down Under Stage 1: Prospect -> Lobethal, 135km

Start time: 11am local time/11:30am AEDST/1:30am CET
Coverage start time: 1pm AEDST/3am CET on both GEM and ninemsn feed for those overseas.
Likely finish time: 3pm AEDST /5am CET

Map and Profile: http://www.tourdownunder.com.au/documents/2013-stage-1.pdf

http://www.tourdownunder.com.au/start-list.htm

What Stuart O'Grady says...

Checker Hill never gets any easier. It's a really steep climb and it's very early in the race. Many people will be trying to conserve energy as it's the first proper climb. A lot of guys haven't raced yet this year so the heart rate will be going and it hurts a lot.

It's quite a lumpy ride out to Lobethal. We've done some reconnaissance and it's a lot harder than what it looks on paper. It could be a real little surprise package that day. The final 10km of the circuit is really, really tough. Especially as it's the first main race of the year a lot of guys won't have much racing under the belt. It could come as a real shock to the system and come out with a surprise result.

There are plenty of opportunities for attacks and I don't think it's going to come down to a big bunch sprint. It's tough enough to split the field. Even the final sprint to the line is a slight drag uphill. For the first race of the year it's going to really hurt.
Video stage preview
 
I think a lot of the sprinters, maybe all of them, will be shut out today by either the break staying away or puncheurs going on the final climb, about 10 kms before the finish.
 
wirral said:
I think a lot of the sprinters, maybe all of them, will be shut out today by either the break staying away or puncheurs going on the final climb, about 10 kms before the finish.
I don't see all the sprinters being shut out. It's the first pro tour race of the season and everybody wants it.
Unless somebody without a sprinter like BMC are going to make it super hard all day and try to split it up on the little climbs I think the sprint teams will have enough firepower to bring it back together.
Somebody might make a break on the climb but I think they will get brought back in the lead up to the line.
Might make for a really messy sprint if the catch happens late which could really disrupt the trains. If the puncheurs go for it then it might be the best chance for a non sprint dominant teams sprinter, like Guardini or Ferrari

Most likely I see the attacks being nullified and having the big sprinters having a crack
 

iZnoGouD

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Feb 18, 2011
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Tigerion said:
I don't see all the sprinters being shut out. It's the first pro tour race of the season and everybody wants it.
Unless somebody without a sprinter like BMC are going to make it super hard all day and try to split it up on the little climbs I think the sprint teams will have enough firepower to bring it back together.
Somebody might make a break on the climb but I think they will get brought back in the lead up to the line.
Might make for a really messy sprint if the catch happens late which could really disrupt the trains. If the puncheurs go for it then it might be the best chance for a non sprint dominant teams sprinter, like Guardini or Ferrari

Most likely I see the attacks being nullified and having the big sprinters having a crack
This favours Machado, a lot :D
 
Tigerion said:
I don't see all the sprinters being shut out. It's the first pro tour race of the season and everybody wants it.
Might make for a really messy sprint if the catch happens late which could really disrupt the trains. If the puncheurs go for it then it might be the best chance for a non sprint dominant teams sprinter, like Guardini or Ferrari

Most likely I see the attacks being nullified and having the big sprinters having a crack
I agree with most of your post except for the idea of Guardini surviving to contest the finale, which i deem highly unlikely but if he does hopefully some CQ points can be scored.

I am hoping Goss can win, the finish will be complicated and he looks to have good sprinting legs (best of the rest). All he has to do is beat Greipel- easier said than done. Fenn and Demare could also surprise.
 
Jan 2, 2013
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it's very hard to see past a Greipel win unless the closing circuit is particularly hard. Anyone ridden it or know it well ? Seems lumpy but not ball breaking. Can a sprint train survive it?

Greipel can be good without the train and no concerns about him sprinting uphill, remember the Tour de France stage where he edged out Goss uphill also but I'd favour a very fit Edvald Boasson Hagen chasing early bonus seconds to give this a lash if it's a lumpy circuit

I agree with the poster who mentioned Andy Fenn, a very typical type finish for him on a lumpy circuit, would suit him no end.
 
Jun 16, 2009
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wheelie1977 said:
it's very hard to see past a Greipel win unless the closing circuit is particularly hard. Anyone ridden it or know it well ? Seems lumpy but not ball breaking. Can a sprint train survive it?

Greipel can be good without the train and no concerns about him sprinting uphill, remember the Tour de France stage where he edged out Goss uphill also but I'd favour a very fit Edvald Boasson Hagen chasing early bonus seconds to give this a lash if it's a lumpy circuit

I agree with the poster who mentioned Andy Fenn, a very typical type finish for him on a lumpy circuit, would suit him no end.
There is one short hill near the finish which is suppose to be difficult but there is down hill after that hill to the finish, according to the video preview in the opening post.

Ferminal, there are no times in AWST because I could not be bothered to do it for every single time zone in Australia, let alone the areas where the forum posters live.

Kwibus, as stated in the opening thread post, there will be a feed.
 
Jul 26, 2011
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I've ridden the circuit, it won't stress the pros. I think the only thing that will prevent a bunch sprint is if a large breakaway forms on Checkers Hill, and that's a long way from the finish.

See you out there!
 
Oct 21, 2012
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Vino attacks everyone said:
the time zone thingy confuses me, when does this start on the TV? :eek::p
TV coverage starts at 1 pm Australian time, or just under 11 hours from now ;).

Personally I'm delighted to see the season proper start, and even more so to watch it on HD. Most of the rest of the season, I'm stuck with streams of varying quality, so this is a bit of a novelty :D
 
Aug 16, 2011
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Greipel or Goss for the win, depending on which team implements the better leadout train.
Guardini to survive and score me some CQ points. :D
And I predict, with everyone hungry for that first win, we will see the first crash of the season.
 
Popchu said:
What about Guardini, Van Hummel and Hutarovich on that last climb? How hard is it?
Pretty much any climb could be hard enough to drop Guardini, depending on his shape. Guardini has made Van Hummel look like a natural climber on several occasions :p
 
Apr 10, 2011
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iZnoGouD said:
how many time left?
Look in the first post...

Start time: 11am local time/11:30am AEDST/1:30am CET
Coverage start time: 1pm AEDST/3am CET on both GEM and ninemsn feed for those overseas.
Likely finish time: 3pm AEDST /5am CET
 

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