Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[AmRacer]

I frankly have no idea why Evenepoel would think he can win the Tour this year but whatever. To me his biggest chance is outlasting the careers of Pogacar and Vingegaard and staying ahead of the rest.

New youngsters will come from time to time.

 

[Red Rick]

New youngsters will come from time to time.

But they keep telling me Pog is once in a lifetime.

 

[Berniece]

I frankly have no idea why Evenepoel would think he can win the Tour this year but whatever. To me his biggest chance is outlasting the careers of Pogacar and Vingegaard and staying ahead of the rest.

Well there are a couple of scenarios where he could win. Chances for those scenarios are extremely slim. 99% sure he isn't winning the TDF.

But does that mean he should just go for podium and focus on that? Is going to be a very boring TDF for him then. Just follow UAE/Visma until Pogacar/Vingegaard attack, and then ride your own pace. Done.

 

[AmRacer]

But they keep telling me Pog is once in a lifetime.

Yeah, but in 5 years when Pogi and Jonas declines. Remco may not be at his best either so new talents will win GTs.

 

[Red Rick]

Well there are a couple of scenarios where he could win. Chances for those scenarios are extremely slim. 99% sure he isn't winning the TDF.

But does that mean he should just go for podium and focus on that? Is going to be a very boring TDF for him then. Just follow UAE/Visma until Pogacar/Vingegaard attack, and then ride your own pace. Done.

He should go for the highest expected outcome decisions. So if he takes a shot at top 2, it should be shots with lower risk to lose 3rd. The main part of his expected value in this Tour is a 3rd place and the TT win.

And I don't think Evenepoel is at the stage of his career where a 3rd place in the Tour behind Pogacar and Vingegaard has major diminishing returns. In fact, if Roglic with his 4 Vuelta wins, a Giro win and a 2nd place in the Tour would get 3rd here I would consider that great for his palmares.

 

[Berniece]

He should go for the highest expected outcome decisions. So if he takes a shot at top 2, it should be shots with lower risk to lose 3rd. The main part of his expected value in this Tour is a 3rd place and the TT win.

And I don't think Evenepoel is at the stage of his career where a 3rd place in the Tour behind Pogacar and Vingegaard has major diminishing returns. In fact, if Roglic with his 4 Vuelta wins, a Giro win and a 2nd place in the Tour would get 3rd here I would consider that great for his palmares.

But that's so boring though

 

[Andre]

First order is to get rid of Tadej, so Visma and Remco and Bora must work together...then second order is to get rid of Vingo, so Remco and Bora must work together, then third order would be to get rid of whoever is still a threat, like Primoz or Lipowitz or whoever is left, then...wait a minut I didn't think this out all the way...

 

[Red Rick]

But that's so boring though

It is.

Blame the other 2 guys.

 

[Kedjan]

Remco meets the press and confesses that his punch is a bit weaker:

"My last few hundred meters are a bit weaker than in previous years. I'm missing that final punch. I tried to be in top form here, and everything's going well now. We'll see how it goes in the high mountains. But you could see in recent days that my punch is a bit less."

 

[dobrien]

Remco meets the press and confesses that his punch is a bit weaker:

"My last few hundred meters are a bit weaker than in previous years. I'm missing that final punch. I tried to be in top form here, and everything's going well now. We'll see how it goes in the high mountains. But you could see in recent days that my punch is a bit less."

I really hope he is not turning into the stereotypical "classics rider who tries to force himself to be a GT rider" and loses the very thing which makes his riding so exciting and great. Fine if his punch is a bit less and he loses a bit to Pog and Jonas, not so great if he is losing seconds to Lipowitz and Matteo.

Yes he won the TT; put that same TT at Stage 19 and imho no way he beats Pog.

I REALLY want to be wrong, as I am a big fan of Remco, but to me he's riding like a guy who is going to lose 3 minutes on Hautacam tomorrow. If I am (as I hope) wrong, I'll happily come back to this thread and eat all the crow anyone cares to serve me. We shall see; crossing my fingers.

 

[Berniece]

Remco meets the press and confesses that his punch is a bit weaker:

"My last few hundred meters are a bit weaker than in previous years. I'm missing that final punch. I tried to be in top form here, and everything's going well now. We'll see how it goes in the high mountains. But you could see in recent days that my punch is a bit less."

A bit less? Basically non-existent. Do Evenepoel and Roglic have the same trainer? Both have no punch anymore

 

[KoopaCycling]

Remco had a punch for the last 2 years, before that it was non-existant. Meaning he either needs to be in top form, or needs to work on it.

I think his interview today was very realistic. With hopeful ambition spruced in.

I'm not sure what to make about his soudal comments. Aside from that Jurgen Fore knows what's up. Reading between the lines he'll probably stay till 2026 after all. But can't be 100% sure.

 

[pelotonIQ]

That crash in Lombardia set Remco's potential back by a lot. Before that crash he was destroying every stage race he set foot in.

 

[Extinction]

View: https://youtu.be/P-zYs4v8wng?si=VuMvtXxBFNaLkWEd

 

[Berniece]

I'm not sure what to make about his soudal comments. Aside from that Jurgen Fore knows what's up. Reading between the lines he'll probably stay till 2026 after all. But can't be 100% sure.

I read it more as: "If Bora and you can't come to an agreement, I'm staying at SOQ". He's loyal and fair towards SOQ, as he always has been.

 

[houtdffan]

he also needs to stop looking around when he attacks.

The team should have the Koko B. Ware music all cued up to blast into his race radio every time he starts flapping his wings

 

[AmRacer]

he also needs to stop looking around when he attacks.

The team should have the Koko B. Ware music all cued up to blast into his race radio every time he starts flapping his wings

Training for joining Redbull 😁

 

[Keldergoat]

That crash in Lombardia set Remco's potential back by a lot. Before that crash he was destroying every stage race he set foot in.

Before that crash he won some second tier races like Algarve and Burgos. After his crash he became GT winner, multiple monument winner, multiple WC winner and double Olympic champion. There is absolutely no way of ascertaining that statement. He reached insane levels in 2022 - 2024, this year I haven't seen him at that level yet, but not surprising giving his hard crash in the winter.

 

[AmRacer]

Before that crash he won some second tier races like Algarve and Burgos. After his crash he became GT winner, multiple monument winner, multiple WC winner and double Olympic champion. There is absolutely no way of ascertaining that statement. He reached insane levels in 2022 - 2024, this year I haven't seen him at that level yet, but not surprising giving his hard crash in the winter.

A motivated Mathieu in form, Jonas and Tadej, and also Rogla during those years, have always been to much for Remco.

Remco could still win the same races against the rest of the peloton.

 

[pelotonIQ]

Before that crash he won some second tier races like Algarve and Burgos. After his crash he became GT winner, multiple monument winner, multiple WC winner and double Olympic champion. There is absolutely no way of ascertaining that statement. He reached insane levels in 2022 - 2024, this year I haven't seen him at that level yet, but not surprising giving his hard crash in the winter.

Instead of looking at the race names, I suggest you look at who he beat on GC in 2020 (he was 20 years old) and you will find names such as S. Yates, Almeida, Vingegaard and Landa. Him winning Vuelta 2 years later despite the crash shows how much better he could have been, he was called the next Merckx and the next Belgian hope to win TdF.

 

[TrekCyclist]

But they keep telling me Pog is once in a lifetime.

yeah but maybe not for Gianetti...(?)

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I really hope he is not turning into the stereotypical "classics rider who tries to force himself to be a GT rider" and loses the very thing which makes his riding so exciting and great. Fine if his punch is a bit less and he loses a bit to Pog and Jonas, not so great if he is losing seconds to Lipowitz and Matteo.

In his junior years and throughout his first year at the pros, he had zero punch. He had to work hard for it and maybe you remember the story that he did those training sessions until he had to puke. Then in his 2nd pro year, he started the season by beating Schachmann in the sprint in Algarve.

If anything, it's the other way around.

 

[Keldergoat]

Instead of looking at the race names, I suggest you look at who he beat on GC in 2020 (he was 20 years old) and you will find names such as S. Yates, Almeida, Vingegaard and Landa. Him winning Vuelta 2 years later despite the crash shows how much better he could have been, he was called the next Merckx and the next Belgian hope to win TdF.

For all of these guys the races in which Evenepoel beat them were not even second tier goals of that season. Winning against the big guys is one thing, but winning against the big guys when it is one of their main goals of the season is a completely different ballgame.

 

[AlpRaid]

Odds are you are correct in that he is in a tight battle for third. However i still want to see his performance in the big mountains before making that final conclusion. I would wait for Hautacam and his performance during the mountain TT before deciding how to ride the remainder of the tour. I think it's a perfect time to make up a bilan after stage 13.

Decide after that stage to ride tactically for third (if he hasn't fallen through the ice by then) or continue to ride to the max of my capablilties so as to measure myself against Tadej and Jonas.

that makes a great deal of sense.

 

[Oldman]

Remco is feeling confident: “I think I'm going to let them play their game. When I attacked yesterday, they did not react. That's a good sign. I'll have to choose my moment when my legs feel right. It's good for us that they're focused on each other..."

Remco: it doesn't mean what you think it does. The guys going for the first two podium spots consider the threats to them at this point. Who did react? Look at the group catching up to Tadej and Jonas at the line. All of those guys want 3rd place, badly. They are all hoping you get the gap...