2013 Santos Tour Down Under Stage 5: McLaren Vale -> Old Wilunga Hill, 151.5km

[Leonardus]

Talking about betting...

I have 50€ in Machado for GC ^^

Money well spent.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Thomas is clearly the best climber in the race and he has the best form, so why bet against him? I predict Slagter to fall out of the top 5, as he's somewhat overrated on the longer climbs. The guys putting money on him are betting purely on gut feelings, they're probably gonna end up disappointed.

1. QUINTANA ROJAS Nairo Alexander CEP 5h44'31" 8
2. TALANSKY Andrew - 39" 4
3. LANDA MEANA Mikel ORB 39" 2
4. ATAPUMA HURTADO John Darwin CEP 41" 0
5. SLAGTER Tom Jelte RB3 43" 0

this was a longer climb (and way longer than 3km willunga hill)

Hell, remember Asisi, Giro last year? That was 3+km as well, the stage where Slagter made all the moves up until the final 200m (where rodriguez made his obviously).
I'm not saying Slagter will win or anything, because I expect Thomas as well. But to say Slagter can't handle anything longer than 1km is utter bs...

 

[Telmisartan new]

I have always felt Thomas is somewhat overrated.People wax lyrical about him constantly,i've yet to be convinced.

 

[Pentacycle]

1. QUINTANA ROJAS Nairo Alexander CEP 5h44'31" 8
2. TALANSKY Andrew - 39" 4
3. LANDA MEANA Mikel ORB 39" 2
4. ATAPUMA HURTADO John Darwin CEP 41" 0
5. SLAGTER Tom Jelte RB3 43" 0

this was a longer climb (and way longer than 3km willunga hill)

Hell, remember Asisi, Giro last year? That was 3+km as well, the stage where Slagter made all the moves up until the final 200m (where rodriguez made his obviously).
I'm not saying Slagter will win or anything, because I expect Thomas as well. But to say Slagter can't handle anything longer than 1km is utter bs...

In GT's he's never done well on the longer climbs except when he was doing domestique work, so I don't expect Slagter to suddenly drop everyone or not get dropped himself.
Edit: Assisi was 1200m, no way that was more than 3 kms.

The time gaps in GC are very small, so if he loses 20+ seconds tomorrow he could be out of the top 5. I think he'll have to limit his losses to stay on the podium, instead of trying to attack Thomas like us Dutch guys hope for.

 

[iZnoGouD]

Money well spent.

 

[Red Rick]

Megalol at people talking about willunga hill like if it was a long climb. The name says it all, it's a hill and the butcher can still improve at all the aspects of racing

 

[barmaher]

Yeah what's going on? Willunga a long climb? have they lengthened it? it will suit Slagter just fine.

 

[Pentacycle]

Megalol at people talking about willunga hill like if it was a long climb. The name says it all, it's a hill and the butcher can still improve at all the aspects of racing

It all depends on form, and it's still January. Riders like Gilbert or Gerrans, who aren't real climbers, can only do well on this kind of hills when they're in good form. For now I'd put Slagter in the same category, as was shown by his stage 2 performance. Do you really expect him to dominate tomorrow's stage?

 

[postmanhat]

Maybe the other teams will let Sky try to chase down the breakaways all day, leaving G on his own at the end. Not sure he's got enough left in the tank at this stage of the season, so anyone else from the top ten

 

[petiagos]

And Matthew Lloyd for a breakaway ?

 

[manafana]

Any thoughts on what way Visconti will ride? Surely work hard for team now?

I think we will see a mix of what you needed for stage 2 and 3.

 

[Orbit501]

And Matthew Lloyd for a breakaway ?

Still trying to work out if he hit the deck again yesterday or not in that Greenedge crash that took out others?. There was certainly a Lampre rider down. He was cut up quite badly already from Corkscrew Hill. Suppose he'll either be suffering and do nothing, or trying to salvage something for the home fans.

 

[manafana]

Lloyd seemed affected even before anything yesterday

I found some good bets including Chris Anker at evens over Kasheckin

Thinking Bauer will sacrifice himself for his team today

 

[mewmewmew13]

I'm going for the butcher....

 

[auscyclefan94]

Damn i'am feeling so nerveous

LOL, it is the tour down under mate.

Kelderman and Slagter for the 1-2...in the GC that is. Stage screams Gilbert

Gilbrt does not have the form. If he can't bring it on a steeper climb like Corkscrew, he won't on Wilunga

Thanks for the preview ACF.. hope you're ok after your hospital visit.

Gerrans for the win on Australia Day!

Thanks, I would have made a much larger preview if I wasn't feeling so ****.

How tough is willunga compared to Corkscrew Hill?

I think Wilunga is slightly longer and the average grade is a bit more steep but Wilunga does not have the super steep sections that the Corkscrew has. I personally think that Wilunga's more constant gradient will suit Thomas more.

OLD WILLUNGA the Australian equivilent of the Galibier!

I think it's going to be hotly contested between Macahdo, Moreno, Slagter and possibly Gerrans to get Orica a stage win

Dark horse is Chris Anker Sorensen

Nah, our Galibier is Mt Baw Baw.

 

[auscyclefan94]

My tip is Moreno for today, but one can not forget the Izagirre boys from Euskaltel.

If one of the Izagirre boys wins today, I will use a carrot avatar for the rest of the month.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

ACF, you do know Gilbert fell in the stage with corkscrew and never had the opportunity to do anything there?

 

[auscyclefan94]

ACF, you do know Gilbert fell in the stage with corkscrew and never had the opportunity to do anything there?

He was already well and truly dropped on the climb. Even Gilbert admitted that he did not have the legs to go with the leaders.

Thomas attacked midway up the 3 km climb and few could follow. "When he attacked, I was already at my maximum," Gilbert said. "I knew it was still long way to the top, so I tried to stay there in the wheel but it was hard for me. I don't have the big condition now, so it wasn't easy."

 

[auscyclefan94]

HAPPY AUSTRALIA DAY!!!!

I can't believe that we won't win anything on our national day.

 

[Afrank]

Don't despair yet ACF, there still a chance the peloton will be more interested in the GC then the stage, and let one of the UniSA guys in the break ride away for the win.

 

[Geraint Too Fast]

Thinking Bauer will sacrifice himself for his team today

Why? He's Garmin's GC guy.

 

[Museeuw]

Lloyd seemed affected even before anything yesterday

I found some good bets including Chris Anker at evens over Kasheckin

Thinking Bauer will sacrifice himself for his team today

I don't get this. Why and for who Bauer should be sacrificed? He is best placed Garmin driver in GC.

Nevertheless I think Veikkanen @2,48 against Bauer should be value bet.

 

[TeoSheva]

Start time is 01:40 and finish time 05:00 - 05:30 CET. Maybe you should wake up about 04:00?

thanks! I've still to go to bed, and in 2 and half hour I should wake up
At least I hope in a good race!!!

 

[petiagos]

My bet:

Moreno and Machado ...
If recovered ... Matthew Lloyd, Simon Clarke in the breakaway

 

[maltiv]

I wonder if Sky will realize that they have absolutely no incentive to pull back a breakway if the riders in it are far away in GC. The best thing that could happen for them is if a breakaway group takes all the bonus seconds.