2013 Tirreno - Adriatico

[Dazed and Confused]

Ok that explains it, though FC only gained 16 seconds on Froome, so cant see Martin gaining more than that.

In last year's TTT worlds QS beat Sky by 1:32 over 53km. How much can they take over 16,9km? 20-30s?

Lets give Martin 30s in the TT related events just for fun. That will be Froome's target. Make up 30s (gaps and bonus secs).

 

[Parrulo]

i don't know why are we even discussing martin's chances to win a tirreno.

has he ever managed to stay within 2 minutes of the favourites on a climb like prato di tivo? has he ever shown anything on a hilly stage over 250k like the lanciano one?

inb4 some1 posts the results from ventoux

 

[Miburo]

It depends on how he fares in the TTT, Froome and Contador don't have the best teams for that. But realistically he needs at least 3 minutes on them from the TTT to stand a chance.

Fixed that

 

[airstream]

Fixed that

I think Mark Cavendish is gonna challenge Contador in TA as well.

 

[Bavarianrider]

Ideal scenariao on guys like Froom and Evans

30 seconds in the TT
25 seconds in the final TT

He looses 40 seconds on the Mountain Finish
He looses 14 seconds on the uphill stage

Tony wins the GC by 1 second

 

[Miburo]

Ideal scenariao on guys like Froom and Evans

30 seconds in the TT
25 seconds in the final TT

He looses 40 seconds on the Mountain Finish
He looses 14 seconds on the uphill stage

Tony wins the GC by 1 second

You seriously think he can take 30 seconds on the ITT against Froome?

 

[Bavarianrider]

You seriously think he can take 30 seconds on the ITT against Froome?

I meant 30 seconds in the TTT
Buty anyway the TT is not technical at all.
Froom lost 16 seconds to Cancellara on 6.4km that had more corners then the 9.4km at Tirreno. So i am abolutely convinced that Froom will lose 25 seconds to Tony in that one

 

[Miburo]

I meant 30 seconds in the TTT
Buty anyway the TT is not technical at all.
Froom lost 16 seconds to Cancellara on 6.4km that had more corners then the 9.4km at Tirreno. So i am abolutely convinced that Froom will lose 25 seconds to Tony in that one

I doubt that unless Tony saves energy in the previous days which he won't since he aims for the GC.

Besides as you said in that prologue Martin was still 2 or 3 seconds behind on canc before falling so yeah not a good reference and i'm sure Froome prefers straight forward than corners.

 

[serfla]

My impression is that Martin's GC ambitions aren't unfounded.
There's not enough time trialing so he could win relying solely on that ability, that's sure, but maybe he feels he can also time trial the climbs.
I've always regretted he didn't develop into a all-arounder rather than a time trial specialist. He had more potential than Wiggo, but High Road wasn't the best environment for that purpose.
Maybe he's now reliving some flashbacks from the start of his professional career which are awakening youthful dreams.

 

[McLovin]

so Tireno is the new Tour de France. Too bad all this will end up on first climb in March and not on first climb in July.
The bad part is that if next year he will target Tour GC again, we will wait for 16 months for Toni to deceive, not 12 like we used to. Dear God, I hope he will not target Vuelta in 2014.

 

[Bavarianrider]

My impression is that Martin's GC ambitions aren't unfounded.
There's not enough time trialing so he could win relying solely on that ability, that's sure, but maybe he feels he can also time trial the climbs.
I've always regretted he didn't develop into a all-arounder rather than a time trial specialist. He had more potential than Wiggo, but High Road wasn't the best environment for that purpose.
Maybe he's now reliving some flashbacks from the start of his professional career which are awakening youthful dreams.

Exactly.
I am sure Tony can ride up Prato di Tivo fast.
After all it's the only mountain of the day. Tony can simply make it a MTT. The climb isn't steep. too. More of a rolleurs type of mountain.
Tony has very serious chances for a Top 5 Gc finish. If everything works fine, maybe more.

 

[Miburo]

Exactly.
I am sure Tony can ride up Prato di Tivo fast.
After all it's the only mountain of the day. Tony can simply make it a MTT. The climb isn't steep. too. More of a rolleurs type of mountain.
Tony has very serious chances for a Top 5 Gc finish. If everything works fine, maybe more.

One mountain you say? Btw this is the next stage.

Not that he will be relevant but even if for w/e miracle he's still up there they will make sure he drops on the passo lanciano.

 

[Bavarianrider]

One mountain you say? Btw this is the next stage.

Not that he will be relevant but even if for w/e miracle he's still up there they will make sure he drops on the passo lanciano.

Passo Delle isn't all that diffcult, that's negelctable.
Well if they go all out on :ancione Tony would get in problems. But i doubt they'll do that.

 

[Miburo]

Passo Delle isn't all that diffcult, that's negelctable.
Well if they go all out on :ancione Tony would get in problems. But i doubt they'll do that.

Of course they'll do it when Tony is still relevant at that point, even when he's not they still might do it.

For example if Contador is behind in GC he'll for sure go there.

 

[Afrank]

I meant 30 seconds in the TTT
Buty anyway the TT is not technical at all.
Froom lost 16 seconds to Cancellara on 6.4km that had more corners then the 9.4km at Tirreno. So i am abolutely convinced that Froom will lose 25 seconds to Tony in that one

Cancellara was only able to take 20 seconds out of Nibali last year on the same course. And I rank Froome a better TTer than Nibali, So I doubt we'll see a gap that big between Froome and Martin.

 

[will10]

My impression is that Martin's GC ambitions aren't unfounded.
There's not enough time trialing so he could win relying solely on that ability, that's sure, but maybe he feels he can also time trial the climbs.
I've always regretted he didn't develop into a all-arounder rather than a time trial specialist. He had more potential than Wiggo, but High Road wasn't the best environment for that purpose.
Maybe he's now reliving some flashbacks from the start of his professional career which are awakening youthful dreams.

Oh please, Tony pretends to climb every season.

 

[serfla]

Oh please, Tony pretends to climb every season.

Once he'll really climb.

 

[Miburo]

Here's the profile once again.

14.4 km at 7%

BR, you really think Martin will be within 30 sec of the best climbers of the world in that climb?

 

[Bavarianrider]

Looks a lot like Crans Montana to me.
If they set a modest pace at Passo Dello, Tony will hang on, don't worry

 

[Miburo]

Looks a lot like Crans Montana to me.
If they set a modest pace at Passo Dello, Tony will hang on, don't worry

How do you come up with this? Since when has Tony being able to follow the big climbers (evans, froome, contador, purito and nibali)?

Does he have a swimming coach?

 

[Bavarianrider]

How do you come up with this? Since when has Tony being able to follow the big climbers (evans, froome, contador, purito and nibali)?

Does he have a swimming coach?

He's proven that he can follow or even beat top climbers on a one mountain finish stage, if the gradients are not too high.

 

[jens_attacks]

so machado vs tony again?

damn froomey and alberto no chance

 

[Miburo]

He's proven that he can follow or even beat top climbers on a one mountain finish stage, if the gradients are not too high.

Who? Give me some stages where he did it.

Btw don't you consider 7% high?

 

[Lupetto]

Martin will explode once again, but he'll do good work for Cav.

 

[Bavarianrider]

Who? Give me some stages where he did it.

Btw don't you consider 7% high?

If it's a regular climb around 7% it's not that steep and ok for Tony.


Crans Montana 2009 for example.
Similar climb in terms of length and gradient.