2013 Tour de France, Stage 15: Givors - Mont Ventoux 242.5 Km

[Ryo Hazuki]

What team is going to control the break in this stage? SKY probably wants to take it easy (depends on who is in the break ofcourse), and I dont think many teams think they can beat Froome on the ventoux.

movistar for sure for quintana

 

[mrhender]

No, like a fan you are interested in everyone riding against Froome. Or if he launches an attack from 5 to go and gains 1 min, you will enjoy the race?

Why attack only on the mountain?

Scenario:

Sidewind on the Ventoux stage

Froome is a bit scared after yesterday so he sticks to contadors wheel, Contador sits with paulinho, Hernandez and one more team mate i n midfield with the whole sky team arround them..

Two saxo guys pretend to go for water and two other dropped back a bit before. Then the silently moves from different positions up field.
in the same time Saxo has made an alliance with Astana who has all the guys in the front (Fuglsang) and belkin has mollemma or Ten dam close to Froome/contador in mid field..

So no danger for Sky right?

Then Kreuziger and A belkin guy goes op to Astana and two otheer guys from saxo and belkin sneaks up..

Then POW!! they attack in the wind and Froome is f.....

Maybe i am dreaming -but why not try?

 

[SafeBet]

Why attack only on the mountain?

Scenario:

Sidewind on the Ventoux stage

Froome is a bit scared after yesterday so he sticks to contadors wheel, Contador sits with paulinho, Hernandez and one more team mate i n midfield with the whole sky team arround them..

Two saxo guys pretend to go for water and two other dropped back a bit before. Then the silently moves from different positions up field.
in the same time Saxo has made an alliance with Astana who has all the guys in the front (Fuglsang) and belkin has mollemma or Ten dam close to Froome/contador in mid field..

So no danger for Sky right?

Then Kreuziger and A belkin guy goes op to Astana and two otheer guys from saxo and belkin sneaks up..

Then POW!! they attack in the wind and Froome is f.....

Maybe i am dreaming -but why not try?

I don't think you have a chance as a cycling DS but a career as Hollywood director, hell yeah

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

I don't think you have a chance as a cycling DS but a career as Hollywood director, hell yeah

That would be an awesome movie indeed. How the humans defeated an alien in a professional cycling filed.

 

[mrhender]

Odds might give you an advantage in that wiew

But what the heck!!

I was dreaming for something like yesterday -so why not?

Just maybe in a different form..

The point is:

Froome knows he might well only loose the tour in the flats.
And he knows Saxo is the grates threat, so he sticks with Alberto to keep himself out of trouble..

If Saxo wants to win they have to be bold, the can in my opinion not pull a trick like today with almost the whole team...

So they must come up with alternatives... (even though mine is far out, i still think that doing things different as today is the way to beat him)

 

[airstream]

Why attack only on the mountain?

Scenario:

Sidewind on the Ventoux stage

Froome is a bit scared after yesterday so he sticks to contadors wheel, Contador sits with paulinho, Hernandez and one more team mate i n midfield with the whole sky team arround them..

Two saxo guys pretend to go for water and two other dropped back a bit before. Then the silently moves from different positions up field.
in the same time Saxo has made an alliance with Astana who has all the guys in the front (Fuglsang) and belkin has mollemma or Ten dam close to Froome/contador in mid field..

So no danger for Sky right?

Then Kreuziger and A belkin guy goes op to Astana and two otheer guys from saxo and belkin sneaks up..

Then POW!! they attack in the wind and Froome is f.....

Maybe i am dreaming -but why not try?

No problem. I have no claims towards you. One has its perfect scenario. You have a perfect Pro Saxo scenarion. Someone other can say Froome will saw everyone in halves at Ventoux and gain 1 min. It's normal.


My opinion you underrate exceptionality of yesterday situation. Doing yesterday move one more time is something close to showing 2 Verbiers, 2 Etnas or 2 Ax 3's in one GT, in other words, almost impossible, because the things should add up in a perfect way for this. Saxo did it great, chapeau to them for that effort, but no team would bury himself on flats.

 

[mrhender]

No problem. I have no claims towards you. One has its perfect scenario. You have a perfect Pro Saxo scenarion. Someone other can say Froome will saw everyone in halves at Ventoux and gain 1 min. It's normal.


My opinion you underrate exceptionality of yesterday situation. Doing yesterday move one more time is something close to showing 2 Verbiers, 2 Etnas or 2 Ax 3's in one GT, in other words, almost impossible, because the things should add up in a perfect way for this.

I can see what you mean -and i dit say that maybe i was dreaming..

I followed up the comment -take a look..

I know its almost impossible to do like yesterday again -that is why i think in other variations of the same project, cause similar to yesterday will not be seen the next ten years maybe.. But i showed that moountains isn't everything.. Especially not if you can get a big gap before the mountain..

If All the favorites come together to Ventoux, Froome most likely will take one or two minutes (except if he shows human ressources)

Thats why they have to think big, and drop him before the climb..

 

[Ruudz0r]

movistar for sure for quintana

If Movistar does that then SKY gets "fresh" to the Ventoux. Thomas is improving and can do the first bit of the ventoux and then Kennaugh and Porte can take some turns. Maybe they give Quintana some room but probably not to much and I cant see Quintana beating Froome in a fair battle on sunday.

 

[User Guide]

If Movistar does that then SKY gets "fresh" to the Ventoux. Thomas is improving and can do the first bit of the ventoux and then Kennaugh and Porte can take some turns. Maybe they give Quintana some room but probably not to much and I cant see Quintana beating Froome in a fair battle on sunday.

A lot depends on the state of Kennaugh and Porte.Not just for Ventoux stage but the 3rd week.
Have they been dropping too save themselves or are they weak too?

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

If Movistar does that then SKY gets "fresh" to the Ventoux. Thomas is improving and can do the first bit of the ventoux and then Kennaugh and Porte can take some turns. Maybe they give Quintana some room but probably not to much and I cant see Quintana beating Froome in a fair battle on sunday.

so? there is nothing to hurt froome before the ventoux anyway. quintana will go lose on the climb in the beginning already I suspect

 

[theyoungest]

gaps can be big because they will start the ventoux after 220 km of racing. that is really long and will be for riders with strong engines. I think froome has one. quintana definitely has one, kreuziger and more, but contador?...

What makes you think Quintana has such a big engine? Sure, he's probably the best climber in this race after Froome, and on the basis of that he could win. But his performance in the classics doesn't suggest such big endurance.

 

[Ruudz0r]

so? there is nothing to hurt froome before the ventoux anyway. quintana will go lose on the climb in the beginning already I suspect

That is exactly the problem, because of this I think no one will really take control in the peloton because if they do they ride Froome to another stage win.
I hope im wrong though I rather see a favourite win (so probably Froome) then a breakaway on the Ventoux.

 

[Red Rick]

Froome will go full ***-super sayan mode and put 1 minute + into everybody, after which the forum will explode, people will get banned for clinical references and people will abandon this thread to visit the clinic asap. Also, I predict the forum will have a complete meltdown like when Froome won on Ax 3 domaines.

I hope I'm wrong though, I rather see Froome pull an Anton than this

You heard it first

 

[Aditya]

Quintana to go solo up the Ventoux with the others left looking at each other. Then Froome goes chasing after him and we have a repeat of the 2000 Ventoux stage. Dawgstrong announces his arrival on the world stage just like the American guy in 2000. Peace out!

 

[pastronef]

Froome will go full ***-super sayan mode and put 1 minute + into everybody, after which the forum will explode, people will get banned for clinical references and people will abandon this thread to visit the clinic asap. Also, I predict the forum will have a complete meltdown like when Froome won on Ax 3 domaines.

I hope I'm wrong though, I rather see Froome pull an Anton than this.

let's hope Anton pulls a Froome

 

[IndianCyclist]

On Ventoux, what is going to happen is that Quintana attacks. Froome will be the only one to follow. They swap turns a la Spilak at Romandie. Stage win & GC movement for Quintana. 1 min extra time gap to Contador for Froome

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

That is exactly the problem, because of this I think no one will really take control in the peloton because if they do they ride Froome to another stage win.
I hope im wrong though I rather see a favourite win (so probably Froome) then a breakaway on the Ventoux.

they will ride for quintana to get him his stage win

 

[Carstenbf]

North wind all day, 20 km/h. So 220 easy kilometers with tailwind but the final kilometers will be against the wind.

If this holds up, I predict a lot of disappointment around here. Headwind for the last bit will surely stiffle most if not all attacks.

God, I hope I'm wrong!

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

If this holds up, I predict a lot of disappointment around here. Headwind for the last bit will surely stiffle most if not all attacks.

God, I hope I'm wrong!

yes that is truly horrible. especially because 20 km/h is a lot

 

[The Hitch]

25°C at the start in Givors.
North wind all day, 20 km/h. So 220 easy kilometers with tailwind but the final kilometers will be against the wind.
34°C in Bédoin (in the shades - probably 40°C in plain sun). Probably 26-27°C at the summit of Ventoux (in plain sun as there's no trees to shelter).

This stage is going to be brutal. The Ventoux legend will talk again after the 2009 dud.
Expect some big breakdowns.

As a matter of facts, the latest stage which was longer than this one and ended into an HC MTF was Luchon-Arcalis in 1997 (252.5 km). Lodève-Mont Ventoux in 2002 was 220 km long.
Never a stage featuring the Mont Ventoux (as a pass or a MTF) was so long.

Froome is the one who loves the heat.

 

[Spicco]

Easy for the dawg.

Quintana, Mollema, Ten Dam and Purito will drop Contador.

 

[The_Juan]

Methinks tomorrow's stage will not have as much action as people think it will. The only one who has to attack is Quintana, who has a Valverde with ax to grind on his side and will want to send a message. Contador will not attack unless he sees weakness in either Froome or Sky because he knows that the alpine stages are a game of attrition.

I'm really more interested in what Mollema will do.

 

[puffin]

On Ventoux, what is going to happen is that Quintana attacks. Froome will be the only one to follow. They swap turns a la Spilak at Romandie. Stage win & GC movement for Quintana. 1 min extra time gap to Contador for Froome

This is likely. It looks like a good stage for sky, mostly flat with one big climb at the end. I think everyone else has more chance in 3rd week stages.

 

[happytramp]

Easy for the dawg.

Quintana, Mollema, Ten Dam and Purito will drop Contador.

Purito will drop him but Dan Martin won't.......right.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

Froome is the one who loves the heat.

so do quintana, purito and contador