2013 Tour de France, Stage 4: Nice / Nice 25km (TTT)

[theyoungest]

I would say that Cadel will have no problem with the TT and will be able to drive the pace like he did in 2011 TTT. One must remember that this squad is stronger than in 2011. TJVG is stronger than Hincapie and the other riders on BMC have improved significantly.

Sky has no Wiggins and ultimately no Thomas. They won't win.

I'm not saying Evans will have a problem, but will he be able to take the same pulls as in 2011? From the tv images back then it looked like he pretty much rode that TTT on his own. Just like Hushovd for Garmin.

I wonder what Lotto will do. No class act TT'ers maybe, but they know how to pound as a team (chasing/leading out Greipel). I can assume they'd likely not lose too much time for JVDB as well.

Two years ago, with an arguably stronger team, they weren't that spectacular, even when they were defending yellow. So I don't expect too much from them.

 

[auscyclefan94]

EBH was quite dissapointing yesterday. It is questionable how good his form is.

 

[JRanton]

Garmin have a habit of letting you down on the few occasions they're talked about as favourites for something. Though to be fair they are TTT specialists. I'm going for BMC but I hope OPQS win with Der Panzerwagen leading them to victory so we can hear what all the amateur doctors on here have to say about it.

 

[manafana]

sky will just miss out i would think with thomas likely to have been key cog in the ttt machine.

 

[JRanton]

sky will just miss out i would think with thomas likely to have been key cog in the ttt machine.

I think they're going to have a bit of a shocker.

 

[Cimber]

sky will just miss out i would think with thomas likely to have been key cog in the ttt machine.

I think that with Thomas injured and Stannard also somethat hurt they might miss out on the win, but they will still finish in top 5

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Two years ago, with an arguably stronger team, they weren't that spectacular, even when they were defending yellow. So I don't expect too much from them.

I can't be arsed to look up their team from two years ago, but i can tell you that Declerq is a humongous upgrade over Vanendert when it comes to TT(T). I don't know if they have a "dud" in their current team like Vanendert. I'd assume the other real difference is Gilbert/Willems.

 

[Galic Ho]

You only need 5 riders. You can lose 4 and still get fastest time. Sky can lose Thomas and still win.

Froome, Porte, Kennaugh, Stennard and Thomas would have been the 5. Maybe add in EBH. Thomas ain't up to it, replace him.

The only other team on paper with a stronger 5 would be Garmin. Hesjedal, CVV, Talansky, Dennis, Martin, Navardauskas and Danielson. They in theory have more room to work with, but are still good.

Honestly I expect quite a few teams to be close time wise. Anyone loses over 90 seconds...yeah, not good for your GC riders. Naturally other teams I expect to do well are OPQS, BMC, Saxo, Movistar and OGE. If Tony Martin hadn't fallen, this would be OPQS easily. Him and Chavanel are monsters.

 

[theyoungest]

I can't be arsed to look up their team from two years ago, but i can tell you that Declerq is a humongous upgrade over Vanendert when it comes to TT(T). I don't know if they have a "dud" in their current team like Vanendert. I'd assume the other real difference is Gilbert/Willems.

No Gilbert. That's quite the difference, certainly the 2011 Gilbert.

And I don't know if De Clercq is necessarily better than Vanendert, who is quite explosive and thus maybe not that useless in a TTT. But I wish them good luck, certainly for your sake, VDB-is-my-friend

 

[greenedge]

Garmin
Movistar, Sky, OGE, OPQS, BMC.

Hoping to see some riders

 

[lemoogle]

I have a feeling this TTT will be more relevant in the long run to the white jersey competition rather than anything too GC related.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

I have a feeling this TTT will be more relevant in the long run to the white jersey competition rather than anything too GC related.

Interesting, how come?

 

[Bavarianrider]

Omega simply has the the perfect mix for this one. Time Trialers, Puncheurs, Rolleirs, Sprinters.

That's what you need over such a short flat distance.

They are also one of the heaviest teams, propably the heaviest one.
That's also a factor which shouldn't be overlooked.

 

[oliveira]

This will be very close between Sky, OPQS, Katusha, Movistar, BMC, Belkin, Saxo, Garmin, RS, Astana, Orica, Argos... 10th placed will be around 40s-45s from the 1st.

For this kind of TTT, the best riders are the ones who would do better in prologue tt, not so much the 50 km tt'ers.

OPQS ftw. Steegmans, Cav and Trentin can do some pretty fast pushes; Terpstra, Velits, Kwiatkowski, Martin and Chavanel to maintain the highest pace.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

No Gilbert. That's quite the difference, certainly the 2011 Gilbert.

And I don't know if De Clercq is necessarily better than Vanendert, who is quite explosive and thus maybe not that useless in a TTT. But I wish them good luck, certainly for your sake, VDB-is-my-friend

Explosive? You'd have to be able to match and exceed the speed of your teammates or all that explosiveness is nothing but wasted, especially if you can't maintain that speed. I don't think this is a particularly bendy or hilly parcours. Declerq is really a much better TT'er, no ifs or buts about it.

But you have a point, they stayed well below expectations two years ago, this team doesn't seem to be much better or worse.

 

[Bavarianrider]

This will be very close between Sky, OPQS, Katusha, Movistar, BMC, Belkin, Saxo, Garmin, RS, Astana, Orica, Argos... 10th placed will be around 40s-45s from the 1st.

For this kind of TTT, the best riders are the ones who would do better in prologue tt, not so much the 50 km tt'ers.

OPQS ftw. Steegmans, Cav and Trentin can do some pretty fast pushes; Terpstra, Velits, Kwiatkowski, Martin and Chavanel to maintain the highest pace.

Exactly.

 

[del1962]

I have a feeling this TTT will be more relevant in the long run to the white jersey competition rather than anything too GC related.

Kwiatkowski?

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I say
1 Movistar
2 Garmin
3 Saxo Bank

Sky not to top 5, judging by their last days (some of their engines are hurt. Plus only Froome/Porte have looked really good so far)

 

[Bavarianrider]

I say
1 Movistar
2 Garmin
3 Saxo Bank

 

[lemoogle]

Interesting, how come?

Well various reasons, really around the fact that I think the GC is between two men and the difference won't be made here.
I think that any 20 seconds here can be a major factor in the long term run for the White jersey.
Essentially all the major contenders for white jersey are in a strong TTT team other than Pinot so it will be interesting to see how much time is lost there, considering Quintana's Movistar should do better and Quintana can possibly TT and climb better/evenly.

If Garmin pulls off a strong one, it will only strengthen Talansky's case.


On another non White-jersey note.... how much time will Rolland lose here...

 

[Jan the Man]

1. Omega Pharma
2. Garmin
3. Movistar
4. Orica
5. BMC
6. Sky
7. Belkin
8. Katusha
9. Lotto
10. Radioshack

 

[movingtarget]

Thomas and Stannard's injuries won't help Sky. Garmin, BMC, Movistar for the podium. Sky and GreenEdge will be thereabouts. Rodriguez needs Katusha to perform well as does Contador with Saxo but I don't think they will podium.

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

Can not see Saxo loosing to much time to Sky with both Thomas and Stannard injured. Top 10for both of them, but no more than 10ish seconds difference between them. how is Martin? omega wont bet Greenedge without him feeling ok I think

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Well various reasons, really around the fact that I think the GC is between two men and the difference won't be made here.
I think that any 20 seconds here can be a major factor in the long term run for the White jersey.
Essentially all the major contenders for white jersey are in a strong TTT team other than Pinot so it will be interesting to see how much time is lost there, considering Quintana's Movistar should do better and Quintana can possibly TT and climb better/evenly.

If Garmin pulls off a strong one, it will only strengthen Talansky's case.


On another non White-jersey note.... how much time will Rolland lose here...

The white jersey competition could be tight as pointed out, but I still think it will boil down to who has the lesser bad day (or two).

Pinot lost a bundle of time on one of the stages last year, I think he can potentially do the same this year. Same for Talansky and the other guys. Its an interesting battle in any case.

Rolland will probably worry more about the first ITT, but of course it all adds up.

I see Europcar losing about 35-45s in the TTT.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I say
1 Movistar
2 Garmin
3 Saxo Bank

tony and steegmans are injured otherwise i'd pick opqs. sorry