2014 Milan-San Remo, Mar 23rd (294 Km)

[Afrank]

Past Winners
2013: Ciolek
2012: Gerrans
2011: Goss
2010: Freire
2009: Cavendish
2008: Cancellara
2007: Freire
2006: Pozzato
2005: Petacchi

2013 Top 10
1.Gerald Ciolek (GER) MTN5:37:20
2.Peter Sagan (SVK) CAN,,
3.Fabian Cancellara (SUI) RLT,,
4.Sylvain Chavanel (FRA) OPQ,,
5.Luca Paolini (ITA) KAT,,
6.Ian Stannard (GBR) SKY,,
7.Taylor Phinney (USA) BMC,,
8.Alexander Kristoff (NOR) KAT0:14
9.Mark Cavendish (GBR) OPQ,,
10.Bernhard Eisel (AUT) SKY,,

Preliminary Startlist: http://www.procyclingstats.com/race/Milano_Sanremo_2014-Startlist

Route: Originally this years addition was going to also include a new climb, the Pompeiana. But weather events left the road in a state of disrepair, prompting it's removal. As it stands right now the route will be the same as it was in 2007. The Le Manie climb is not planned to be included, but it's inclusion is still possible. And now a potential of rain and flooding could prompt another change. A alternate route is being looked at "The option is to leave Aurelia before Spotorno, climb above the town — a road with grades no higher than three percent — and return seaside near Noli."

Contenders: With the planned addition of the Pompeiana climb, it looked like this years edition would suit the climbers and attacking riders more. With Riders such as Nibali, Froome, and Gilbert among others planning on attending. But weather has left the roads of Pompeiana in need of repair and forced the removal of the climb. Putting the sprinters back into contention for the race win. Since the removal of Pompeiana a number of riders have shifted their focus to targeting a win in Milan-San Remo.

Cavendish: Winner of the 2009 addition, Cavendish will be heading to MSR to target a 2nd win. The Manxman has stated “When I knew there was a chance of the Pompeiana being taken out, I became totally focused. I've been training specifically for it and losing weight without jeopardizing things for later in the season. I know I have to give it a try. I’m a past winner and I step up for big races, I was also top 10 last year." Cavendish is coming off a stage win in TA (where his other rivals were halted by a crash in the first corner) and will have a strong team at his disposal.

Greipel: The rider known as the Gorilla started his season strong with sprint wins Down Under, in Qatar, and Oman. Greipel has race San Remo the past 3 years, his best placing being 33rd in 2011. But if it looks to come down to a sprint and Greipel is in the mix, he surly is one to watch out for.

Sagan: 4th in 2012, 2nd in 2013, Sagan will be heading to the race again still chasing an elusive first monument win. If a break goes on the Poggio Sagan is one of the sprinters capable of making the selection and sprinting for the win. Winning from the break presents Sagan's best chance at victory, lacking the top end speed of the pure sprinters like Greipel or Cavendish should it come down to a bunch sprint. Sagan looks in good form coming off a recent 2nd in SB and a stage win in TA.

Degenkolb: Degenkolb will going into the race with the full backing of his Giant-Shimano team. 5th in 2012 and 18th last year, Degenkolb is another sprinter that can get over the hills to contest the sprint (possibly in a break). Degenkolb is coming off a stage win and green jersey in Paris-Nice.

Gilbert: The inclusion of Pompeiana prompted Gilbert to mark out MSR as his main target this year. The redaction of the climb however means the course will be less suited to his strengths. However Gilbert is still confident he can contest for the win even without the climb. He has been talking big this season saying among other things he is getting back to his dominating 2011 levels, if this is indeed true we could see the Gilbert that placed 3rd from the break in 2011. The Belgians form is on the rise with results in Sud Ardeche, Drome Classic, and Roma Maxima.

Cancellara: Having finished on the podium the last 3 years in a row and winning in 2008, Cancellara will be looking to make/create the break or solo in for a 2nd win. Cancellara will need to attempt a solo in order to win, or risk being marked out or taken advantage of by the better sprinters again. Cancellara's form is not entirely known not having any large standout wins as of yet, but so far he has achieved top 5's in the Dubai and Qatar TT's, a 6th in SB, and 2nd in the TA TT.

Ciolek: Ciolek took the biggest win of his career when he surprised (almost) everyone to beat the likes of Sagan and Cancellara to win last years edition. Ciolek will be looking to defend his title this year. But Sagan and other favorites will be sure not to underestimate him this year. Ciolek will be coming off a stage win in Andalucia and and 9th in Le Samyn.

At 300 Km's in length, the ascent and descent of the Poggio at the end, and it's placement as the first monument of the season; Milan-San Remo frequently is a race that gives us a few surprises. And there is always a great chance the big favorites could lose out to a lesser favorite. As we have seen the past few years. Other riders that could surprise and take the win include-

Phinney, Van Avermaet, Gatto, Offredo, Bouhanni, Demare, Kristoff, Paolini, Pozzato, Modolo, Gallopin, Roelandts, Meersman, Goss, Matthews, Gerrans, Boasson Hagen, Stannard, Coquard, Bennati, Felline, Chavanel, Haussler, Colbrelli.

 

[greenedge]

I voted for Greipel- I think he might just crack it.
If not him Sagan and Cancellara would seem the safest bets, with Sagan likely to top 3 no matter what.

I'm hoping one of Goss/ Matthews can do a good showing as well.

 

[jaylew]

with Sagan likely to top 3 no matter what.

Yeah, hard to even imagine a scenario with Sagan out of the top 3-4 that doesn't involve a mechanical or crash

 

[Jspear]

Out of the sprinters It would be great if Cav could win it, but he probably won't make it over the last climb. Out of the classics guys It would be nice if Cancellara won it. Those two are my favorites for the win, but it will probably be Sagan who wins it.

 

[Pippo_San]

Out of the top contenders, Sagan looks to have the nicest form, so my vote goes there.
It was the same last year, and it'll probably be the same in some years to come.

GO HULK!

 

[VeloHuman]

Sagan will almost certainly be on the podium, but there will be so many high caliber sprinters to battle here. Greipel has shown improved ability to hang on over small bumps even on very long one-day races recently. Will be tough for Sagan to outkick him in a final. Degenkolb's ability to make it to harder finishes is well known, too, and he might also pack a faster top-end sprint than Sagan.

 

[ILovecycling]

Peter the Great to begin a series of wins.

 

[Don't be late Pedro]

OMQS have Boonen and Cav so be interesting to see their tactics. Boonen to follow any late attacks and Cav for the bunch sprint would seem the obvious way to play it. Boonen vs Sagan - who would have the better kick at the end of nearly 300km?

 

[Don't be late Pedro]

That said I was going to go with Degenkolb last year but he was coming of an injury so I will go for him again.

Stannard could be an outside bet if there is terrible weather.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Hard to look cast Degenkolb here.

 

[tomorrow]

sagan top favourite, in MSR there are always so many variables. And without Pompeiana and le Manie there are even more. Cancellara will most certainly not win it, there are too many riders that can hang on him on poggio and then outsprint him, that it is impossible.
For sagan, this year it will be very tough too, though. After the attack on poggio, there will most likely be Cancellara and Boonen probably too, and none of them will cooperate with sagan. Cancellara just because and boonen because cav will be dragged by T. Martin to catch them.
If sagan is to win, he will need his teams help as never before in MSR. Cannondale should definately repeat stage 7 from last TDF as first "capo" is reached and make the sprinters suffer big time. And then, send somene to attack on Cipresa, who would be able to stay like 20 - 30 secs still on top of poggio before peloton, here he could meet attacking sagan and drag him to the line.

So or so, it should be a very nice spectacle.

 

[vladimir]

Nice summary Afrank!
I woted others as I think this is a more open race than in years.
Hoping for EBH and also think Appollonio could surprise a few people (and Appollonio isn't even in Afranks 32 man shortlist)

 

[fauniera]

Modolo.

Stupid parcours though without Le Manie.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Praying for a really powerful break will go after a big morning battle.

Anyway hoping for an upset here. Geschke was one of the more impressive riders at T-A, maybe a long range attack with Stannard could yield a result. Less than 1% chance.

Ok, from a bunch sprint I'm rooting for this man:

Tall order, but what the hell.

 

[King Boonen]

Greipel and Cav both look to have good form and OPQS are looking very good. It's also technically the last year a sprinter is ever likely to win it (same last year though...) so I think Lotto, OPQS, Giant and pretty much everyone else will be backing their fast guys. It's going to take something special for Sagan to get this one.

Apparently it'll be cold and wet so I think Boonen is out of it.


Hard to look past Greipel/Cav in a sprint or Degenkolb if a break goes away, assuming he is in it.

 

[Amsterdam]

Cannondale is gonna go crazy on the Cipressa and Poggio. Sagan or Degenkolb for the win! Phinney for top 5. From who can we expect an attack on the Poggio other than Cancellara, Ulissi or Gilbert?

 

[Marco Pantani]

No need for Cannondale to go crazy, because Cancellara will do it for them. His condition is improving rapidly and i expect to see the strongest Cancellara we've seen at MSR in a while, stronger than in 2012.

 

[tomorrow]

No need for Cannondale to go crazy, because Cancellara will do it for them. His condition is improving rapidly and i expect to see the strongest Cancellara we've seen at MSR in a while, stronger than in 2012.

well, but cancellara has that thing for sagan though. sagan is probably the last guy he would tow to the line.

 

[barmaher]

I think Greipel is the best climber of the sprinters, so I tentatively pick him.

As always, any number of potential winners, but it is more weighted towards the speed men now that Le Manie is out and Pompeiana is not in.

 

[samish01]

EBH might podium, I have a feeling that some sprinters will be dropped in the short climbs

 

[Der Effe]

EBH might podium, I have a feeling that some sprinters will be dropped in the short climbs

Hey Ian Stannard! I think it's such an achievement to be and pretty succesful on the road, and to be a troll on an internet forum.

 

[samish01]

Hey Ian Stannard! I think it's such an achievement to be and pretty succesful on the road, and to be a troll on an internet forum.

Please don't ban me, I didn't do anything bad.

 

[Der Effe]

Please don't ban me, I didn't do anything bad.

Why do you make 17 accounts a day? Sorry to go off-topic so much, but what's the use in it? You seemed to be pretty interested in cycling.

 

[samish01]

Why do you make 17 accounts a day? Sorry to go off-topic so much, but what's the use in it? You seemed to be pretty interested in cycling.

I got banned again and again for no reason. I'm new to cycling, I don't know much, maybe you guys think I'm a troll or whatever.

 

[King Boonen]

Oh for God's sake do not ruin a race thread!



I'm not sure Greipel has the tactical nounce to win this, hopefully Lotto know what they are doing.