2014 Tour de France, Stage 9: Gerardmer – Mulhouse: 170km

[roundabout]

2014 Tour de France, Stage 9: Gerardmer – Mulhouse: 170km

Stage 9: Gerardmer – Mulhouse: 170km, medium mountains
Overview:
Almost immediately after the start the roads start to climb, and for 145km the road will go up or down, while it twists and turns through the Vosges.

Only the last 20km it will ease up again, but by then the peloton has covered 6 climbs of a varying difficulty, good for a total elevation gain of more than 3200m, comparable to LBL. Most climbs aren’t very steep, so this stage is rather suited to the powerhouses than to the pocketclimbers. In a similar stage in the 2005 Tour (maybe not coincidently also Gerardmer – Mulhouse) the peloton was completely fractured after just 30km and 3 3rd category climbs because the pace was so high because everyone who could wanted to form a break.
A big spoiler for fireworks is the flat final of 20km after the descent, but if any favorite is caught out napping in the first half, this stage will be hell for the non-climbers and even those final kilometers will be raced hard.
The last climb of the day, the 1st category ascent to Le Markstein is hard enough to shatter any breakaway and if the time differences aren’t too big, maybe even some guys from the peloton can bridge it to the front group.

Predictions:
The previous stage had a difficult final with a steep hilltop finish, next stage will have a steep mountaintop finish, so I think the favorites will take it easy. If the weather is bad, and he already lost some time, someone like Nibali could try it in the final descent, but that would be no more than a desperate try. The stage will be dominated by a breakaway. Many riders will know that they have a chance to contest the stage win, if they are part of said breakaway, so getting in the break will be the hardest part of the day. It may be a day early for the French, but I’m guessing Thomas Voeckler won’t be far from it.

Another Markstein profile

https://sites.google.com/site/velovosgescols/markstein/Col.376.jpeg

Wonder what the weather will be?

After today and with the best Vosges stage in years on Monday I expect an "easy" day for main GC favorites. Let's hope it will be a nice stage battle and some 2nd string contenders try to move up.

 

[Afrank]

Nibali to attack on the descent and solo in for the win taking 5 minutes in the process!!!



Nah, GC's to come in together, leftovers from the break for the win. Could be a good stage for some GC action if it wasn't for that 20 Km's of flat after the descent. Think that will neutralize GC action for the most part.

Anyone know how technical the descent is. A technical descent with some rain could create some nervousness in the bunch.

 

[sir fly]

Where's a poll about the panties color of Fight.The.Power's missus?

 

[Sciocco]

Where's a poll about the panties color of Fight.The.Power's missus?

Yup, I was looking forward to voting for "none"

 

[maxmartin]

All Nibali needs to do it to stick with AC, let saxo burn their team if they want to

 

[sir fly]

Yup, I was looking forward to voting for "none"

Do you know or just assuming?
Polka dot sounds sensible to me.

 

[Sciocco]

Do you know or just assuming?
Polka dot sounds sensible to me.

Assumption. If that was an option I'd pick it.

 

[murali]

Could anyone please post the profiles of all the climbs?


I think this stage has break written all over it. expecting a sizable attack in the first climb.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

I think we are in for one hell of a break battle. The stage offers good chances to a host of riders some way back on GC. Hopefully the battle will be on TV.

Albasini or Dumoulin FTW.

Excellent stage design, right between two GC relevant stages.

 

[murali]

My heart says Tommy Voeckler. climbs all hills and gets polka dot jersey.

 

[Netserk]

Another Markstein profile

https://sites.google.com/site/velovosgescols/markstein/Col.376.jpeg

Wonder what the weather will be?

After today and with the best Vosges stage in years on Monday I expect an "easy" day for main GC favorites. Let's hope it will be a nice stage battle and some 2nd string contenders try to move up.

 

[Netserk]

I really don't understand why there isn't TV coverage from the word go in this stage. The first half hour would've been good to watch.

Would also make more sense if this was the Bastille stage.



EDIT: BTW who will be this year's Rasmussen?

 

[whittashau]

Not really many good candidates For Astana to give yellow away to tomorrow. Gallopin would be the most obvious, otherwise maybe Konig? Zubeldia? I would love to see Machado in the break and getting it.

 

[roundabout]

Could anyone please post the profiles of all the climbs?


I think this stage has break written all over it. expecting a sizable attack in the first climb.

Schlucht

http://www.cyclingcols.com/profiles/SchluchtW.gif

Wettstein (between Orbey and Wettstein on the profile)

http://www.cyclingcols.com/asp/colframe.asp?cl=1543

Cinq Chateaux (until approximately km 6 on the profile)

https://sites.google.com/site/velovosgescols/hohlandsburg/Col.317.jpeg

Gueberschwihr (km 1.5 - km 5.5 on the profile)

https://sites.google.com/site/velovosgescols/firstplan/Col.1003.Col_du_Firstplan_versant_Ouest.jpeg

Markstein (from Lautenbach)

https://sites.google.com/site/velovosgescols/markstein/Col.376.jpeg

 

[roundabout]

Image snipped

Hmm, SW wind, might get a bit crosswindy in the last part

 

[UpTheRoad]

Contenders other than Contador have to start making up for lost time, if they want to win. Talansky and TJVG need to put the pressure on early. Valverde needs to put the pressure on early. Mollema, JVdB, even perhaps Kwiatkowski should try something rather than just save it for Monday.

Contador and Porte might not necessarily have to do something Sunday, but the others do if they are racing for the win.

That long flat might spoil any of those plans, though. What could be tried is to try to blow out the Astana helpers tomorrow so Monday's fireworks are more effective.

Think Nibali defends easily tomorrow unless someone like Garmin drills it from the start.

 

[murali]

will it be just an early break.


can anyone attack from the middle of stage and catch the leaders?

 

[Jspear]

Tommy V to win from a breakaway. If he wants a stage this is one of the few good places for him. His biggest problem is he is a marked man.

 

[rghysens]

Tommy V to win from a breakaway. If he wants a stage this is one of the few good places for him. His biggest problem is he is a marked man.

Despite claiming otherwise in my preview, I don't think Voeckler has the legs to win. He didn't give a good impression the few stages he went on the attack, at least.

 

[Marco Pantani]

Today, I saw the strongest Contador in this Tour so far.
I believe he was unsure of Nibalis capabilities and therefore played it save and went for the sprint.

Still, the little gap sets it up perfectly. A lot of pretenders have blown, but that might create some mighty breaks for the tough stages.

 

[indianfanboy]

I know its a long shot but does anyone think Sagan and his team can make it over those climbs and control the breakaway?

 

[RobbieCanuck]

The last 20k will nullify AC gains on the climbs, unless Nibali has no one left at Cernay to pull him to the finish. Roche and Rogers look pretty strong to haul AC to the end. "Marginal gains" for AC?

 

[Lance Armstrong]

I know its a long shot but does anyone think Sagan and his team can make it over those climbs and control the breakaway?

Sagan will try to get into the break. He was active today as well and tried to escape, but was caught and then Chavanel attacked.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

I know its a long shot but does anyone think Sagan and his team can make it over those climbs and control the breakaway?

Maybe but unlike stage 7, I think this stage will have serious break action and the botd will be very strong. Cannondale could end up burning lots of riders chasing and end with nothing.

They can try, stage 10 will be a "rest" day for them anyway.

edit: as Armstrong says. Joining the break might be better.

 

[Alcanelo]

I think Astana will be forced to do too much work tomorrow setting the pace and will f*ck themselves for Monday....if I was TCS I would relax and rest after Saturday's stage and only get into action if sh*t hits the fan... Ditto another poster, cmon Tommy V give us something!