2014 Vuelta a Espana, stage 18: A Estrada-Monte Castrove en Meis (157 km)

[cineteq]

Gesink: “My pregnant wife has undergone surgery twice this past week. Her situation has not improved and she is still in the hospital. I will immediately leave the Vuelta to be with my family, who needs me right now,”

http://www.teambelkin.com/teamnews/robert-gesink-leaves-la-vuelta-4340

The right thing to do.

 

[search]

they should hammer the rainy descent and get rid of froome in gc

I think rainy finishes have been forecasted every day for the whole last week now - has it ever happened so far?

 

[Cance > TheRest]

“My pregnant wife has undergone surgery twice this past week. Her situation has not improved and she is still in the hospital. I will immediately leave the Vuelta to be with my family, who needs me right now,”

http://www.teambelkin.com/teamnews/robert-gesink-leaves-la-vuelta-4340

Family always should trumph racing. Though the top 10 overall result would have warmed on his palmares, he can atleast take with him the knowledge that he is back at his level from before the heart problems.

 

[Samson777]

The right thing to do.

Indeed. Would be nonense to blame him for this..

 

[Dr. Juice]

I think rainy finishes have been forecasted every day for the whole last week now - has it ever happened so far?

In southern countries it rarely rains the whole time ( in winter only) but there are almost always just showers or a good hour of rain ...kind like that. And in a hilly terrain it's difficult to predict the weather - rain clouds can move away or form very quickly.

 

[dduff442]

Andrew Talansky has hardly been seen and must be close to hitting form by now. My guess is that Garmin exploit Valverde's need for bonus seconds by forcing Movistar to chase the break, force a furious pace themselves for the 20kms before the final climb, and then launch Talansky 2kms from home knowing they've Martin in reserve if Valverde tries to ride him down.

 

[Ryongsyong]

In southern countries it rarely rains the whole time ( in winter only) but there are almost always just showers or a good hour of rain ...kind like that. And in a hilly terrain it's difficult to predict the weather - rain clouds can move away or form very quickly.

You're right that it's difficult to predict, but it's pretty impressive to say rain and get it wrong every single day

 

[Sciatic]

If, for some reason, Katusha/Movistar/Sky fail to drive the pace really hard the first time up the climb (though I can't imagine why they wouldn't), it might be an opportunity for one of the top-descending classics guys (say Evans, Gilbert, or even Canc?) to hang on, attack near the top of that first climb, get a bigger gap on the descent, and then hold on 'till the top of the second ascent.

Probably not, but just wanted to imagine an possible alternate scenario to the top 4 sprinting with 2k to go

 

[BigMac]

Andrew Talansky has hardly been seen and must be close to hitting form by now. My guess is that Garmin exploit Valverde's need for bonus seconds by forcing Movistar to chase the break, force a furious pace themselves for the 20kms before the final climb, and then launch Talansky 2kms from home knowing they've Martin in reserve if Valverde tries to ride him down.

Garmin are specialists at forcing a furious pace. They're also specialists at being nowhere near the front after.

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

You're right that it's difficult to predict, but it's pretty impressive to say rain and get it wrong every single day

LOL. That's funny right there.

 

[yespatterns]

Contie to stamp authority, Betancur to eat a donut Fact..

 

[Ferminal]

Poor man's Arrate, easy win if there is a Samu bend.

 

[wirral]

It will be interesting to see how Caja Rural approach the mountain classification conundrum today.

Their key objective is perhaps not to boost Luis Leon's total but to try and create conditions to stop Valverde and Contador scoring. Obviously if they can get Sanchez in the break, then he should be able to get the 5 pts on the first climb.

For the second climb, it is interesting to note the KOM is before the line, not on the line.

 

[luckyboy]

sky will control this for chris

results:

1.froome
2. contador +18
3. aru + 32
4. valverde + 38
5. purito + 38


fasten your seat belts cause it will be something like this _O_

those time gaps? how hard do you think it is today? Its 5%~ for 6km

 

[Dazed and Confused]

I think rainy finishes have been forecasted every day for the whole last week now - has it ever happened so far?

It rained (or the roads were wet) on stage 15.
After Castro's fall, the peloton (or movistar) decided not to race the descent.
I think we could see something similar today, i.e. the peloton will take it easy if the descent is wet.

 

[Sasquatch]

It will be interesting to see how Caja Rural approach the mountain classification conundrum today.

Their key objective is perhaps not to boost Luis Leon's total but to try and create conditions to stop Valverde and Contador scoring. Obviously if they can get Sanchez in the break, then he should be able to get the 5 pts on the first climb.

For the second climb, it is interesting to note the KOM is before the line, not on the line.

I think Sanchez will try for the break Friday where he is a realistic shot at the stage win.

And it will be interesting to see how Giant tackle the Green Jersey.

Degenkolb has a 35 point lead.

You would think they would send him in the break today to pick up a cheap 8 points.

He realistically needs 16 more points to retain the jersey after Saturday if Valverde wins today's and Saturday's stage, which he can pick up today and tomorrow as well as maybe some extra points at the finish tomorrow, and 4 on Saturday and he could be fine because Valverde/Contador won't score points in the TT on Sunday. So I see Degenkolb in the break today.

 

[jens_attacks]

those time gaps? how hard do you think it is today? Its 5%~ for 6km

uhmmm no.

it's 6,4 km@7,3%

it's for valverde and purito only if it will be softpedalled. which won't happen. froomey said he's definitely improving big time. sky will set a monster pace again and froome will fly with alberto in his wheel. this time alberto will let him win i guess but he might get dropped. we'll see

 

[Cance > TheRest]

uhmmm no.

it's 6,4 km@7,3%

it's for valverde and purito only if it will be softpedalled. which won't happen. froomey said he's definitely improving big time. sky will set a monster pace again and froome will fly with alberto in his wheel. this time alberto will let him win i guess but he might get dropped. we'll see

What makes you think that after Lagos de Somiedo?

Valverde ftw

 

[Red Rick]

uhmmm no.

it's 6,4 km@7,3%

it's for valverde and purito only if it will be softpedalled. which won't happen. froomey said he's definitely improving big time. sky will set a monster pace again and froome will fly with alberto in his wheel. this time alberto will let him win i guess but he might get dropped. we'll see

Newsflash, it's not 2013 anymore. 0.1% chance Froome will drop Contador on a climb like this

 

[jens_attacks]

What makes you think that after Lagos de Somiedo?

i don't know, just my feeling. we'll see

 

[Jack_89]

I say Froome.
True that the climb befits Purito and Valvderde, but do not forget that the penultimate km is 10% with a 15% stretch.
At that point I expect a terrible attack of Froome with only Contador responds and leaves him the win (which I would not do, and that the same would not Froome .But you will see that will go well))

 

[Arnout]

uhmmm no.

it's 6,4 km@7,3%

it's for valverde and purito only if it will be softpedalled. which won't happen. froomey said he's definitely improving big time. sky will set a monster pace again and froome will fly with alberto in his wheel. this time alberto will let him win i guess but he might get dropped. we'll see

They'll need the first 5km to shed the peloton, after that it's a sprint uphill. I see no reason why Purito and Valverde will not do well here.

 

[search]

They'll need the first 5km to shed the peloton, after that it's a sprint uphill. I see no reason why Purito and Valverde will not do well here.

downhill even, for the final ~700 meters

the winner to come from a late attack over the top of the climb is the most likely outcome I think (the Moreno, Barguil, Martin or Sanchez type of rider)

 

[jens_attacks]

They'll need the first 5km to shed the peloton, after that it's a sprint uphill. I see no reason why Purito and Valverde will not do well here.

sky can destroy the peloton on the first ascent. if you go at 30 kmph you can destroy valverde and purito easily even with 3-2 km to go. basically froome and contador are a different world to the rest let's be honest. at least on farrapona they were.
i think if chris is as good as monday he will attack from the base of the final ascent, on that 14% ramp. this champ always attacks, no waiting for him

 

[Pricey_sky]

Hopefully Sky go mental up the first climb to really break it up and soften the legs. 2nd time around the Froome can attack again if he feels good. I hope he can get a stage win for his efforts.