2015 Ardennes: 79th La Fleche Wallonne - Mur de Huy - 205.5k

[Bushman]

I doubt Kwiatkowski will even make the top 5. Valverde, Purito, Henao and Martin are all way better than Kwiatkowski on this sort of climb and are all in good shape. Then there are guys like Mollema, Albasini, Vanendert and maybe Yates who could get a good resistent also.

 

[blaxland]

so love the finish to this race,the wall"fleche has been my favourite classic over the years cause the finish is just brutal and usually only the strongest rider wins.This year there are so many riders with a chance and good form yet only one thing matters at the end of a classic like this and its called "Timing your sprint"as other posters will know many a strong rider has launched early in years past but to no avail.always being overtaken in the last 250metre.so my prediction will be Gilbert and Rodriguez and hopefully Yates.bring on Fleche...

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re:

I doubt Kwiatkowski will even make the top 5. Valverde, Purito, Henao and Martin are all way better than Kwiatkowski on this sort of climb and are all in good shape. Then there are guys like Mollema, Albasini, Vanendert and maybe Yates who could get a good resistent also.

Kwiatkowski was one of the strongest riders on climb - and especially the steeper parts - last year. He only faded towards the top when it flattens. I think he will have learned from his mistake that was going too early last year and will be a very serious threat.

 

[TommyPlus]

Any outsiders that could surprise? I want to wager but the favourites are unappealing prices.

 

[Bushman]

Re: Re:

I doubt Kwiatkowski will even make the top 5. Valverde, Purito, Henao and Martin are all way better than Kwiatkowski on this sort of climb and are all in good shape. Then there are guys like Mollema, Albasini, Vanendert and maybe Yates who could get a good resistent also.

Kwiatkowski was one of the strongest riders on climb - and especially the steeper parts - last year. He only faded towards the top when it flattens. I think he will have learned from his mistake that was going too early last year and will be a very serious threat.

Last year Purito and Henao wasn't there and he was beaten comfortably by Valverde. Martin also beat him and has looked better this year.

 

[Miburo]

Re:

Any outsiders that could surprise? I want to wager but the favourites are unappealing prices.

Henao is a good bet.

 

[Pricey_sky]

Re: Re:

Any outsiders that could surprise? I want to wager but the favourites are unappealing prices.

Henao is a good bet.

Henao isn't an outsider, he's only 5/1 with some bookies now, After he impressed at PV then Simon Yates at 20/1, that's an outsider!

 

[Bushman]

Re:

Any outsiders that could surprise? I want to wager but the favourites are unappealing prices.

Simon Yates? Was very good in PV and Orica are always well organized, so he should be positioned fairly well in the finale.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re: Re:

I doubt Kwiatkowski will even make the top 5. Valverde, Purito, Henao and Martin are all way better than Kwiatkowski on this sort of climb and are all in good shape. Then there are guys like Mollema, Albasini, Vanendert and maybe Yates who could get a good resistent also.

Kwiatkowski was one of the strongest riders on climb - and especially the steeper parts - last year. He only faded towards the top when it flattens. I think he will have learned from his mistake that was going too early last year and will be a very serious threat.

Last year Purito and Henao wasn't there and he was beaten comfortably by Valverde. Martin also beat him and has looked better this year.

Yes, he was beaten comfortably by Valverde but as mentioned, Kwiatkowski made his move way too early, but he looked the strongest on the steepest parts of the climb. Henao wasn't there but Rodriguez was.

That said, Kwiatkowski isn't as big a favorite as the likes of Valverde and Rodriguez, but I think he'll top 5 at least.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re:

Any outsiders that could surprise? I want to wager but the favourites are unappealing prices.

It's hard to imagine outsiders winning here in my opinion. Moreno is one who could do it although he's hardly an outsider. Vanendert is another one. Froome is perhaps the best bet for a real outsider, though most likely he won't be up there.

 

[Jagartrott]

I wouldn't bet on Vanendert. He crashed rather hard in AGR, injuring his hand and shoulder.

 

[Arnout]

What's the expected finish time? I remember it being really early last year.

 

[dicanio_michael]

Re: Re:

I doubt Kwiatkowski will even make the top 5. Valverde, Purito, Henao and Martin are all way better than Kwiatkowski on this sort of climb and are all in good shape. Then there are guys like Mollema, Albasini, Vanendert and maybe Yates who could get a good resistent also.

Kwiatkowski was one of the strongest riders on climb - and especially the steeper parts - last year. He only faded towards the top when it flattens. I think he will have learned from his mistake that was going too early last year and will be a very serious threat.

Last year Purito and Henao wasn't there and he was beaten comfortably by Valverde. Martin also beat him and has looked better this year.

Yes, he was beaten comfortably by Valverde but as mentioned, Kwiatkowski made his move way too early, but he looked the strongest on the steepest parts of the climb. Henao wasn't there but Rodriguez was.

That said, Kwiatkowski isn't as big a favorite as the likes of Valverde and Rodriguez, but I think he'll top 5 at least.

I agree. Most people tends to underestimate Kwiatkowski a lot, the Worlds and last Sunday Amstel.

They may say he didn't prove himself winning a big thing before the Worlds, but he an all Top 5 result in last year Ardennes was superb good for a newbie. Even he thought himself was a favorite by asking his Pole team to control the race. And in Amstel, no one mention him until like page 4 or 5 ?

I won't say he can win FW today (even he thinks his chance is small), but he is still a top 5 favorites. Classic specialist is specialist, what they do best than grand tour contenders is position well in crucial time. This is the advantage of Kwiatkowski, even he is not the best climber here.

 

[Pricey_sky]

Re:

What's the expected finish time? I remember it being really early last year.

British Eurosport coverage ends at 3.30pm so maybe 3.15?

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re:

I wouldn't bet on Vanendert. He crashed rather hard in AGR, injuring his hand and shoulder.

Sorry, I didn't know that. Thanks.

 

[meat puppet]

what time will they finish, approximately? round 17 CET, maybe? planning to go ride and then maybe catch the last 7ks.

 

[TommyPlus]

Re: Re:

Any outsiders that could surprise? I want to wager but the favourites are unappealing prices.

It's hard to imagine outsiders winning here in my opinion. Moreno is one who could do it although he's hardly an outsider. Vanendert is another one. Froome is perhaps the best bet for a real outsider, though most likely he won't be up there.

Yeah I figured as much. Huy is so pivotal that it's hard to envisage a set of circumstances where one of the top echelon of favourites doesn't win. Oh well, one to sit back and enjoy.

 

[TommyPlus]

Re:

what time will they finish, approximately? round 17 CET, maybe? planning to go ride and then maybe catch the last 7ks.

Seems a fair estimate

 

[SafeBet]

De Gendt in the break. We have a winner.

 

[DBotero]

Re: 2015 Ardennes: 79th La Fleche Wallonne - Mur de Huy - 20

Thomas De Gendt (Lotto Soudal), Mike Teunissen (Team LottoNL-Jumbo), Brice Feillu (Bretagne-Séché Environnement), Jérôme Baugnies (Wanty - Groupe Gobert), Reinier Honig (Team Roompot), Daniele Ratto (UnitedHealthcare Pro Cycling), and Pieter Vanspeybrouck (Topsport Vlaanderen - Baloise)

Weak break so again we will have tons of rested domestiques chasing every *** move on the last part of the race.

 

[Miburo]

Re:

De Gendt in the break. We have a winner.

Sadly enough this degendt doesn't have the same aura from a few years ago. Now his breaks go long but fail at the end unlike before.

But a man can dream.

 

[Bushman]

Re: Re:

I doubt Kwiatkowski will even make the top 5. Valverde, Purito, Henao and Martin are all way better than Kwiatkowski on this sort of climb and are all in good shape. Then there are guys like Mollema, Albasini, Vanendert and maybe Yates who could get a good resistent also.

Kwiatkowski was one of the strongest riders on climb - and especially the steeper parts - last year. He only faded towards the top when it flattens. I think he will have learned from his mistake that was going too early last year and will be a very serious threat.

Last year Purito and Henao wasn't there and he was beaten comfortably by Valverde. Martin also beat him and has looked better this year.

Yes, he was beaten comfortably by Valverde but as mentioned, Kwiatkowski made his move way too early, but he looked the strongest on the steepest parts of the climb. Henao wasn't there but Rodriguez was.

That said, Kwiatkowski isn't as big a favorite as the likes of Valverde and Rodriguez, but I think he'll top 5 at least.

I dont agree he was the strongest on the steep part. Valverde and Martin looked more comfortable but were saving their powers.

He can definately top 5, but I dont think he is anywjere near a top favourite at all.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Re:

Anyone know how Mollema is from his crash in PV and his quiet showing in AG?

Dan Martin for me considering how involved he was in AG, hes been so close here before and he keeps improving.

Mollema actually felt good in the AG, but said he lacked explosiveness, and he is unsure wether that's because of the crash and subsequent lack of training or from focussing on longer climbs more in training. He thinks the longer climbs in FW and especially Liege will suit him more.

But on AGR, he could not go fast on small climbs, but recovered really easily each time.

 

[ferryman]

That's the Eurosport coverage up and running. 90K to go. Break has 6 minutes.

 

[ferryman]

Break riders hitting the Mur for the first time of three right now..