2015 Strade Bianche, 7th March, 200 km, 1.HC

[Eshnar]

The classic season has finally started today... it's already time to open the thread of the baby monument

STARTLIST


2014:
1 KWIATKOWSKI, Michal (OMEGA PHARMA - QUICK-STEP) 5:20:33
2 SAGAN, Peter (CANNONDALE) + 19
3 VALVERDE BELMONTE, Alejandro (MOVISTAR) + 36
4 CUNEGO, Damiano (LAMPRE - MERIDA) + 40
5 KREUZIGER, Roman (TINKOFF-SAXO)
6 CANCELLARA, Fabian (TREK FACTORY RACING) + 59
7 EVANS, Cadel (BMC RACING) + 1:44
8 BARGUIL, Warren (GIANT-SHIMANO) + 2:02
9 POELS, Wouter (OMEGA PHARMA - QUICK-STEP) + 2:11
10 GESCHKE, Simon (GIANT-SHIMANO) + 2:51



2007 1. Aleksandr Kolobnev 2. Marcus Ljungqvist 3. Mychajlo Chalilov
2008 1. Fabian Cancellara 2. Alessandro Ballan 3. Linus Gerdemann
2009 1. Thomas Lovkvist 2. Fabian Wegmann 3. Martin Elmiger
2010 1. Maksim Iglinskij 2. Thomas L?vkvist 3. Michael Rogers
2011 1. Philippe Gilbert 2. Alessandro Ballan 3. Damiano Cunego
2012 1. Fabian Cancellara 2. Maksim Iglinskij 3. Oscar Gatto
2013 1. Moreno Moser 2. Peter Sagan 3. Rinaldo Nocentini
2014 1. Michał Kwiatkowski 2. Peter Sagan 3. Alejandro Valverde

 

[Arredondo]

Peter Kennaugh to continue the Sky dominance!

Most curious to see Nibali and Arredondo performing here.

 

[TMP401]

Peter Kennaugh to continue the Sky dominance!

Most curious to see Nibali and Arredondo performing here.

Interesting thought. Kennaugh is 26 this year and his role is still a bit vague. He's worked hard for Froome on mountains, albeit without much tactical sense, won the Tour of Austria, and won a flat sprint against Swift (although narrowly losing seems to be Swift's forte). But isn't he supposed to be more of a one-day rider? Kennaugh leading Sky here would be a good test.

 

[bala v]

Peter Kennaugh to continue the Sky dominance!

Most curious to see Nibali and Arredondo performing here.

Can't see any of those three performing here, maybe Nibali, but in top form. Expecting Sagan vs Cancellara vs Valverde

 

[May0maniac]

One of my favourite races, but I'm still mad about the fact that Roma Maxima/Giro del Lazio was cancelled...

 

[jaylew]

One of my favourite races, but I'm still mad about the fact that Roma Maxima/Giro del Lazio was cancelled...

i missed that. Damn...

 

[MBotero]

No more Roma Maxima means Valverde will have to be contented with winning this race.I'm curious if Nibali will show something here.

 

[Wallenquist]

Stybar is the main favorite here, Cancellara, Sagan and Valverde just behind him.

 

[pablohidalgo7]

I can see vanmarcke going strong here, maybe too hard for him?

 

[Arredondo]

Can't see any of those three performing here, maybe Nibali, but in top form. Expecting Sagan vs Cancellara vs Valverde

Arredondo was quite good in Oman, and hilly classics are his terrain. I expect more from him then Nibali, based on form at the moment.

 

[Arredondo]

Interesting thought. Kennaugh is 26 this year and his role is still a bit vague. He's worked hard for Froome on mountains, albeit without much tactical sense, won the Tour of Austria, and won a flat sprint against Swift (although narrowly losing seems to be Swift's forte). But isn't he supposed to be more of a one-day rider? Kennaugh leading Sky here would be a good test.

I think Kennaugh has got quite some capacities to do well in hilly classics. I mean, if he's motivated to do well here, and he gets the freedom of Sky, he can finish in the top 10 for sure. And you never known what's possible.

 

[staubsauger]

Kennaugh seems to be in good shape and this is one of his few leadership chances. Of course he will try to win and I recognize he has a chance to succeed! Brits are the new Italians and Sky is in Skywiss mode this spring!

 

[More Strides than Rides]

Stybar is the main favorite here, Cancellara, Sagan and Valverde just behind him.

Stybar is a good wildcard, but he is not the favorite. Hasn't shown anything this season. Not that Cancellara and Sagan have shown anything either except some good dune surfing, but their baselline is so much higher.

 

[Netserk]

Stybar is a good wildcard, but he is not the favorite. Hasn't shown anything this season. Not that Cancellara and Sagan have shown anything either except some good dune surfing, but their baselline is so much higher.

So neither Murcia, Algarve nor Omloop counts?

 

[burning]

Stybar is a good wildcard, but he is not the favorite. Hasn't shown anything this season. Not that Cancellara and Sagan have shown anything either except some good dune surfing, but their baselline is so much higher.

http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=27243

 

[More Strides than Rides]

So neither Murcia, Algarve nor Omloop counts?

They do. Granted, it was for 4th place, but Stybar really packed it in during the finish yesterday, especially after sitting in on GvA and Vanmarcke for 40k. Whether it was form, fatigue, or attitude, 7 days is a short time to turn it around. And Algrave showed some savvy, but he didn't do anything to separate himself.

All things being equal, which they are showing to be pretty much so far between them, Cancelalra, Sagan, and Valverde will come in at a higher level.

EDIT:

http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=27243

Right. A good result. That's what I meant. He hasn't dominated, and isn't tanking it. Stybar showed some quality too. So if Cancellara, Sagan, Valverde and Stybar all come into the race at par, how can Stybar be the favorite?

 

[Netserk]

They do. Granted, it was for 4th place, but Stybar really packed it in during the finish yesterday, especially after sitting in on GvA and Vanmarcke for 40k. Whether it was form, fatigue, or attitude, 7 days is a short time to turn it around.

It was for 5th place and it was on purpose. He didn't want to contest that sprint. How can that not be clear for anyone watching?

 

[More Strides than Rides]

It was for 5th place and it was on purpose. He didn't want to contest that sprint. How can that not be clear for anyone watching?

So how can a rider, with lesser palmares than those mentioned, be the favorite, especially with that attitude? In what way does him not caring about 5th place make him suddenly rise above the others?

 

[Geraint Too Fast]

So how can a rider, with lesser palmares than those mentioned, be the favorite, especially with that attitude? In what way does him not caring about 5th place make him suddenly rise above the others?

Sprinting for a minor place against two guys he'd wheelsucked for >30km would have shown Stybar had the correct attitude?

 

[More Strides than Rides]

Sprinting for a minor place against two guys he'd wheelsucked for >30km would have shown Stybar had the correct attitude?

The argument is that Stybar is the favorite for SB. He hasn't shown anything to separate himself from riders that have always been better.

Yes. Not sprinting for minor placing is status quo. It's not a negative; no problem with me. But how does status quo at Omloop suddenly make him better?

 

[Netserk]

The argument is that Stybar is the favorite for SB. He hasn't shown anything to separate himself from riders that have always been better.

Yes. Not sprinting for minor placing is status quo. It's not a negative; no problem with me. But how does status quo at Omloop suddenly make him better?

No one has argued that. It's what else he has done that clearly shows he is in good form (including Omloop). I haven't argued that he is the number one favourite, I have argued that he has shown something the last few races. He is strong and in form. He has certainly shown that more than anyone else of the favourites for this race.

 

[Wallenquist]

It's perfect route for Stybar. The hills are little bit longer then those in cobbled classics like OHN and it should give him advantage on Cancellara and Sagan (who doesn't look like a guy in great shape for now). Valverde on the other hand is not as fast and explosive as Stybar.

If those four will reach final kilometer together I would bet on Stybar since the final uphill stretch in Siena looks perfect for him.

 

[Tank Engine]

Well, maybe it's too early for him this year, since he'll be peaking for the Ardennes classics, but go Michael Flowers

 

[Wallenquist]

Well, maybe it's too early for him this year, since he'll be peaking for the Ardennes classics, but go Michael Flowers

He's peaking for cobbled classics not Ardennes. And Kwiatkowski won't ride as he will begin Paris Nice just a day later.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

He's peaking for cobbled classics not Ardennes. And Kwiatkowski won't ride as he will begin Paris Nice just a day later.

Uhm no he's not. He has clearly stated his goals for the year as MSR, the Ardennes and TDF.

Also, do you really think that Stybar has a shot against Valverde if they reach the final KM together? I mean, I guess anything's possible, but saying that Stybar is the favorite in that situation is perhaps stretching it a bit, don't you think?