2015 tour de france stage 3, Antwerpen-Hoei 159.5km

[burning]

Re: Re:

Glancing at the betting odds, looks like Froome is now evens to win, Quintina in the ballpark of 2:1 or a bit higher, Nibali and Contador at about 6-7:1, Van Garderen around 20-25:1, Purito around 30-40:1, Pinot at 50-60:1, and everyone else over 100.

Looks decent value on Nibali and Contador. Not sure why they have drifted so much, but Quintana has stayed fairly steady. Froome is obviously favourite, but I would probably only make him evens to finish the race. Stupidly short odds with so much racing to go.

I'd only bet on Nibali with these odds but I think it is not plausible to bet anything for GC.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re: Re:

at one point froome was riding zig-zag almost causing havoc in the entire peleton with his *** style I almost fell on the floor for laughing so hard haha

I doubt you were laughing. More likely salty than anything

Allthough op post is lame and childish, froome really went a bit nuts there. Almost causing crashes. Pushing bakelandts away. Then he also pushed Gallopin away on Huy.
He's not making friends. That could be bad, but then again Froome being assertive is kind of good for him, but also kind of awkward.

He did seem desparate to hit the front at 500m to go.

 

[BigMac]

oh ryo, I heard you did it again. Do you think froome will keep yellow tomorrow?

He just said somwhere that Froome is wasting energy and so should fade later in the Tour. Or something along this lines.

Can't recall the thread.

 

[Warhawk]

Re: Re:

Glancing at the betting odds, looks like Froome is now evens to win, Quintina in the ballpark of 2:1 or a bit higher, Nibali and Contador at about 6-7:1, Van Garderen around 20-25:1, Purito around 30-40:1, Pinot at 50-60:1, and everyone else over 100.

Looks decent value on Nibali and Contador. Not sure why they have drifted so much, but Quintana has stayed fairly steady. Froome is obviously favourite, but I would probably only make him evens to finish the race. Stupidly short odds with so much racing to go.

If I had to guess it's because Quintana was already somewhat expected to be at a time disadvantage going into the mountains and that he'd be a good bet to make up ground there, so the fact that that's the case already hasn't quite moved his line as much as Nibali and Contator (especially Nibali, since the expectation was that he might have the lead going into the mountains by virtue of the cobbles, and conventional wisdom is that Nibali's best chance would be to gain a cushion and hold on in the mountains and that he'd have trouble gaining time there).

 

[Climbing]

Nibbles will have this in the bag, after tomorrow!

 

[yaco]

Bad day for OGE - Gerrans out and Matthews must be in serious doubt - Gerrans/Matthews/Albasini/S.Yates were the four riders who could win a stage - And probably two are out of the race.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Glancing at the betting odds, looks like Froome is now evens to win, Quintina in the ballpark of 2:1 or a bit higher, Nibali and Contador at about 6-7:1, Van Garderen around 20-25:1, Purito around 30-40:1, Pinot at 50-60:1, and everyone else over 100.

Looks decent value on Nibali and Contador. Not sure why they have drifted so much, but Quintana has stayed fairly steady. Froome is obviously favourite, but I would probably only make him evens to finish the race. Stupidly short odds with so much racing to go.

I'd only bet on Nibali with these odds but I think it is not plausible to bet anything for GC.

Yeah, there's no outstanding value, but I don't get why Nibali in particular has drifted out so much. He got caught behind a split and then lost 10 seconds on an explosive climb. There's no indication yet of his form in high mountains - so it seems strange for him to go out by so much. A couple of minutes is nothing really at this stage in the race.

 

[markene2]

Re: Re:

at one point froome was riding zig-zag almost causing havoc in the entire peleton with his *** style I almost fell on the floor for laughing so hard haha

I doubt you were laughing. More likely salty than anything

Allthough op post is lame and childish, froome really went a bit nuts there. Almost causing crashes. Pushing bakelandts away. Then he also pushed Gallopin away on Huy.
He's not making friends. That could be bad, but then again Froome being assertive is kind of good for him, but also kind of awkward.

I felt bad for Bardet i think it was him, when Froome was in love with his stem and rode into him at the Cherave and almost punched him afterwards. No way he gets over the cobbles tomorrow

 

[Kwibus]

Oh and yaaaaaaay Purito won! He will win the Tour!

Allready a lot of people said that he wasnt able to do this anymore.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Glancing at the betting odds, looks like Froome is now evens to win, Quintina in the ballpark of 2:1 or a bit higher, Nibali and Contador at about 6-7:1, Van Garderen around 20-25:1, Purito around 30-40:1, Pinot at 50-60:1, and everyone else over 100.

Looks decent value on Nibali and Contador. Not sure why they have drifted so much, but Quintana has stayed fairly steady. Froome is obviously favourite, but I would probably only make him evens to finish the race. Stupidly short odds with so much racing to go.

If I had to guess it's because Quintana was already somewhat expected to be at a time disadvantage going into the mountains and that he'd be a good bet to make up ground there, so the fact that that's the case already hasn't quite moved his line as much as Nibali and Contator (especially Nibali, since the expectation was that he might have the lead going into the mountains by virtue of the cobbles, and conventional wisdom is that Nibali's best chance would be to gain a cushion and hold on in the mountains and that he'd have trouble gaining time there).

That's a fair point regarding Nibali. Although I think last year his performances in the last week in the mountains (6.1w/kg on Hautacam on the last mountain of the race ) suggests that he could easily still claw back time if he has similar form.

I'm also not sure what people expected from Contador pre-race. To be 35 seconds down on Froome after a time trial and Mur de Huy isn't awful by any means.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Andy Schleck was second in the flèche wallone 2009, and I think quintana is a very similar rider. So I think its possible that nairo wont even do as bad as everyone expects.

quintana and andy are COMPLETELY different type of riders. still as long as quintana is placed well he won't lose much time. froome will have a harder time on mur

Hahaha, keep eating **** Ryo.

More ball sacks needed?... Anyway, thanks Ryo. Your prediction of Froome doing bad led me to think him doing T-5 today. Keep coming...

 

[Miburo]

I expected more from nibali too

 

[Fight.The.Power]

Maybe there is some sand-bagging going on.

This is gonna be an awful tough TDF in the mountains and what Froome did today - he will surely pay for later.

Nibali will save himself for tomorrow surely when he can put all the GC under pressure (hopefully)

Contador didn't lose much today.

To say that Froome is now 80% to win the whole thing is WAAAAAY to optimistic IMO.

 

[jaylew]

Re: Re:

Froome 'looks' unbeatable at the moment; but how close to peak form is he? Can he sustain this form through three weeks? And what about the other 3 contenders, are they going to be flying higher than Froome by the time we get to the mountain stages?

How anyone can believe the GC race is over is a mystery to me.

well he is talking about peaking for the 3rd week

Maybe, but unless Sky has made hitherto unknown scientific advances, I think he's very close to peak form right now. Let's not forget he was already very good at the Dauphine.

A 'very good' Froome does not struggle to gain 45 seconds over TvG over 2 mountain stages (no disrespect to TJ)

Normally I'd agree with you but TJ seems to have stepped up a level. We'll see...

 

[SafeBet]

Re:

Maybe there is some sand-bagging going on.

This is gonna be an awful tough TDF in the mountains and what Froome did today - he will surely pay for later.

Nibali will save himself for tomorrow surely when he can put all the GC under pressure (hopefully)

Contador didn't lose much today.

To say that Froome is now 80% to win the whole thing is WAAAAAY to optimistic IMO.

I concur.
So much can happen. And I doubt any of the other three contenders will stop trying unless they're 10 minutes down in the GC.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

I expected more from nibali too

You expected more from Nibali than finishing 7th, only 11 seconds behind Rodriguez and ahead of Valverde?

I think it was a really good ride by both him and Quintana; it has just been massively over-shadowed by Froome's performance.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Random GC riders:

1. Froome
3. Van Garderen +13
7. Uran +34
8. Contador +36
11. Barguil +1.07
12. Mollema +1.32
13. Nibali +1.38
16. Valverde +1.51
17. Quintana +1.56
18. Rodriguez +2.00
21. Peraud +2.07
26. Bardet +2.54
27. Pinot +2.58

Already huge gaps. Froome looks by far the strongest. TJ the second strongest.

 

[jaylew]

Andy Schleck was second in the flèche wallone 2009, and I think quintana is a very similar rider. So I think its possible that nairo wont even do as bad as everyone expects.

quintana and andy are COMPLETELY different type of riders. still as long as quintana is placed well he won't lose much time. froome will have a harder time on mur

Hahaha, keep eating **** Ryo.

In fairness, he was 50% right.

 

[Avoriaz]

Re:

I think Murito won the yellow for Froome there (though I doubt Froome wants it).

Lets see what happens tommorow. I don't think having the yellow is the best case scenario for Sky.

Maybe not but it puts the Sky car right at the front of the convoy

 

[franic]

Re:

I expected more from nibali too

He was in the second group with TJ and Valverde: what can you expect from Nibali? His best result at FW was a 8th place, he was 7th today…

 

[Warhawk]

Re:

Random GC riders:

1. Froome
3. Van Garderen +13
7. Uran +34
8. Contador +36
11. Barguil +1.07
12. Mollema +1.32
13. Nibali +1.38
16. Valverde +1.51
17. Quintana +1.56
18. Rodriguez +2.00
21. Peraud +2.07
26. Bardet +2.54
27. Pinot +2.58

Already huge gaps. Froome looks by far the strongest. TJ the second strongest.

Frenchmen better step it up.

 

[yaco]

Question is who will hold the yellow jersey tomorrow - Froome is a doubtful quantity on cobbles and will lose time - Tomorrow will end Quintano's race - He could lose 3 to 5 minutes on this stage.

 

[Carols]

Re:

TJVG was off the back. I guess he won't be contesting for the GC after all...

Huuummmm, spoke to soon

 

[The Hitch]

With everyone saying Froome will lose time tomorrow, its pretty much certain he will gain it.

 

[qwer]

i always said this: if contador rides il giro, froome will win tour de france easily. only contador can compete with froome