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2016 Giro d'Italia stage 16: Bressanone - Andalo (132 km)

The next big mountain stage, and considering the gc situation right now it should be very interesting.
Eshnar said:
STAGE 16: Bressanone – Andalo 132 km

Stage start: 13.40 CET, 24 May

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Technical Overview:
After the final rest day, the Giro goes for the shortest stage of this edition. Despite being rated only 3 stars by the organizers, this is actually a very tricky stage, considering that it comes straight out a rest day and should be ridden very fast. The peloton will start the day descending gently for 45 km, before hitting a few decent 5% ramps that will bring them to Appiano, where the first real ascent begins. The Passo della Mendola (14.8 km at 6.5%, GPM2) is long and constant, perfect as a warm up but nothing more, considering the top is at 68 km to go. The descent is very fast and irregular, and soon becomes just a descending false flat. After about 35 km of this kind of terrain, the riders enter the real test of the day, the climb to Fai della Paganella (10.25 km at 7.4%, GPM2). This climb has very constant slopes at 8% for the first 8.5 km, before flattening out and having one last 15% kick at the top. After the GPM there still one km of easy climbing, up to the village of Santel, where the very short descent start: only 2.5 km without particular problems. After that, the riders will face a 2 km long false flat and then the last bit of climbing of the stage, all the way up to Andalo (4.1 km at 3.8%, GPM3). This climb features a decent first half, with 2.5 km at 6.2%, and then a totally flat final section of 1.6 km that leads to the finishing line.

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The Climbs:

Passo della Mendola GPM2
A classic in the Giro, it was actually missing since 2004. Very constant and solid climb, but without anything to make it stand out.
PW_T16_S01_Mendola.jpg


Fai della Paganella GPM2
Much steeper that the first climb, it is not a classic at all, having been ridden only twice in the Giro, in 1973 and 1993.
PW_T16_S02_Paganella.jpg


Andalo GPM3
The organizers categorized the finish too, and you can see the profile in the final kms graph. A short, 6% ramp and then just flat. GPM3 is even too much.

What to expect:
This could be a very important stage if one of the GC contenders has the usual day off after the rest day. In any case, I do expect a nice show, considering that Fai della Paganella is an excellent spot for attacking and the following terrain doesn't prevent a solo action.

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The finishing climb disappointed me in Trentino, but then again, the monster that is Plateau de Beille has disappointed hugely the last 2 times it has been ridden for various reasons.

If Astana (or Movistar, but more likely Astana) dares to take the race up on the first climb, then this can be a very, very interesting stage. Its a short stage, but honestly, that could play in their favour considering (its just a theory of mine, dunno if its true) Kruijswijk is more of a diesel and the harder, the better.

Hopefully Astana won't allow any Lottos up the road and then send riders up the road after making it hard for Lotto
 
If the break don't stay away then Valverde or Chavito to win this. Normally, Valverde shouldn't have a problem beating every other GC contender here, but for some reason he wasn't very sharp this Giro. Even in the first week(remember Rocarasso) he wasn't the best in the stages designed for him.
 
Nibali has not been good at judging his capabilities or measuring his efforts. We saw that on stage 4, Stage 14, where he attacked well but didn't leave strength (or have strength) to follow subsequent attacks. And then his time trial of course, letting a 20" mechanical turn into a 2'+ loss. In running, I would call it the survival shuffle. Not sure if there's a cycling-equivalent term...

Astana may go for it, but I can't see that being an advantage for Nibali. So for Nibali to gain time, either Kruiswijk needs to fade in the third week, or Nibali uses his downhill technique to get a gap.

Movistar will do nothing. Valverde will sit on, and not gain any time unless people in front of him crack.

Chavez is more of a wildcard. Watching stage 14, he matches Kruiswijk very well in those lower category climbs. But the big, big mountains are coming.

And while Nibali has the team to defend easily, I'm not sure if Lotto could hold against Pozzovivo or Uran going stage hunting. Movistar could defend I guess, but maybe Amador won't be keen to sacrifice his own place to be the last man driving for Valverde, should those 8th,9th,10th place guys go up the road (and Visconti might be in those breakaways himself...).
 
This stage is interesting because is short. Some of the riders that consider themselves out of it can go for it. We have Pozzo, Uran and probably need to include Zakarin and Majka. Majka never has done that but who knows.

Astana will put a lot of pressure in the first mountain to drop all Jumbo domestiques. That's for sure. Crushweak to be glued to Nibali. He better don't have a mechanical with Nibali.

Atapuma, Pirazzi, Monfort and Henao might try again. Jungels will probably be glued to Henao.
 
While Kruijswijk will be watching Nibali's every move Chaves will attack and win his second stage tonight.(thats if the breakaway is caught)Looking forward to see how strong lotto/jumbo are in the mountains??
 
The other favorites should now try and put some serious pressure on Lotto-NL. Isolate Kruijswijk and force him to chase down every move. Battaglin will be key here. So far so good, but now Kruijswijk should be put to the test. Astana and Movistar have to ride offensively and not chase each other down either.
 
Re: 2016 Giro d'Italia stage 16: Bressanone - Andalo (132 km

This stage is tricky -hard but short, so someone within the top 4 happens to have a bad day coming out of the rest day will pay dearly for it. I foresee a breakaway making it while the GC riders will be watching each other - perhaps Valverde is likely to try first, then Nibs & Chavito will counter.

going to be interesting :)
 
Mar 9, 2013
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IMHO, The Big Teams (Astana & Movistar) Have to hit Lotto Jumbo. Hard on the first climb. Isolate the Maglia Rosa. And work him over. If you do not crack him...You will be draining his energy for later in the week.
 
Re: 2016 Giro d'Italia stage 16: Bressanone - Andalo (132 km

Eshnar said:
Gigs_98 said:
Btw I'm not at home on Tuesday, so I wont be able to watch. :eek:
I'll try to call RAI, see if we can get full live coverage :eek: :p
It's full coverage, they start at 12.45 and go stright until 18, the only problem is that they talk about nothing for the first two hours or so like friday and saturday :rolleyes:
 
urggghhh... yet again if nibali / contador are not in the race lead, we allegedly need hell on the road, early attacks, risky moves, alliances,,, however everything is fine when they are in driving seat. people being victims of their own ionospheric hype make the forum board really hilarious.
 
I'm not expecting much from this stage. Movistar will wait to see what Astana does, and Astana will wait to understand if Nibali is recovered.
Most riders would be satisfied to finish this Giro in the position they currently hold. Valverde and Nibali are the notable exceptions, but Nibali can't be sure about his shape and Valverde will surely wait to take advantage of any crazy move by Nibali.
 
Jul 12, 2013
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Re:

SafeBet said:
I'm not expecting much from this stage. Movistar will wait to see what Astana does, and Astana will wait to understand if Nibali is recovered.
Most riders would be satisfied to finish this Giro in the position they currently hold. Valverde and Nibali are the notable exceptions, but Nibali can't be sure about his shape and Valverde will surely wait to take advantage of any crazy move by Nibali.

Conservative racing at its best :p