2016 Tour Down Under WT January 19-24 Adelaide

[classicomano]

Re: Re:

Oh look its a Simon Gerrans win where hes non existent for the entire race then pushes his wheel forward on the line. Great win, great win.

He did the pace of the chasing group for the entire climb.

Actually yes youre right, lets hope this trend continues.

 

[The Hegelian]

Even the biggest Gerro-wheelsucker-haters probably feel some heart that he got up today, given how wretched his luck was last year.....

 

[Billie]

Re: Re:

Not sure about the size as reasoning though. Robbie McEwen was pretty small.

(in physical stature)

Ewan is listed at 5'5" and 130lb. (I'm sure that height has been measured with his cycling shoes on )
Robbie McEwen is 5'7 and 150lb.

In cycling, there is a big difference between 130lb and 150lb.

(btw Cav is also listed at 150lb)

I remember McEwen racing as an amateur - he'd win the odd crit and road stage in races like the old Commonwealth Bank Cycle Classic. But he was one of 5 or 6 good sprinters. Was definitely not blowing fields away - and these were amateur fields. There was nothing that said future green jersey + 11 tdf stages.

What's missing from your analysis are two critical things:

1. Riders develop. You want to freeze time, and make Ewan a 21 year old for his whole career.
2. What Ewan is doing as a 21 year old is impressive. It just flat out is. If it looks like a WT sprint win comes on plate, that's cause to be impressed. If you can snag back the Paris-Roubaix champion in a GT as a neopro, that's cause to be impressed. It just flat out is.

Most people with knowledge of the sport would find it hard to deny 1 or 2, and you not only conflate both, but also deny both.

I agree, riders do develop.

McEwen was a relative late bloomer because he wasn't committed fully to the job. He lacked a bit of professionalism early on. That changed when his wife got pregnant. He start living for the job and taking everything more serious. It's then that his career really took off.

 

[Taxus4a]

Very good rider Woods, I hope to see him in the Giro and other races helping Rigo.

Last year he was great and in a better team this year he is going to be better

 

[Ferminal]

I made a post about Ewan in a somewhat similar vein to Jancouver 12 months ago. That is, he will get squeezed by the big sprinters and the Matthews/puncheurs. I meant that more over the medium-term rather than an entire career, eventually could carve out a niche there, but you're not going to be top10. He's not going to be a climber or develop a world-class 'engine' as he simply doesn't have the threshold power, look at his ITT results. What he does have is incredible power over several minutes, which combined with his acceleration and aero makes him very strong in certain types (albeit rare) finishes. He will be able to handle the furious GT sprint trains soon enough (if he can't already) but it's kinda beside the point given he will get shut down by the power monsters in the last 250m more often than not.

He's no Guardini, who despite having crazy acceleration has never won a WT stage (?) because he can't handle a hard leadout. Or Chicchi if you want a cruder example.

 

[Jspear]

In the stage 2 sprint Ewan hit 1440 watts...how much does someone like Kittel hit?

 

[gooner]

Guardini had that Giro stage win over Cav. To be fair, it was a hugely impressive sprint. Again, it was more the exception against the elite, than the norm.

You may have forgot in all the excitement of that Giro.

 

[Alexandre B.]

Re:

I made a post about Ewan in a somewhat similar vein to Jancouver 12 months ago. That is, he will get squeezed by the big sprinters and the Matthews/puncheurs. I meant that more over the medium-term rather than an entire career, eventually could carve out a niche there, but you're not going to be top10. He's not going to be a climber or develop a world-class 'engine' as he simply doesn't have the threshold power, look at his ITT results. What he does have is incredible power over several minutes, which combined with his acceleration and aero makes him very strong in certain types (albeit rare) finishes. He will be able to handle the furious GT sprint trains soon enough (if he can't already) but it's kinda beside the point given he will get shut down by the power monsters in the last 250m more often than not.

He's no Guardini, who despite having crazy acceleration has never won a WT stage (?) because he can't handle a hard leadout. Or Chicchi if you want a cruder example.

He won a Giro stage ahead of Cavendish in 2012.

 

[Bushman]

Re:

In the stage 2 sprint Ewan hit 1440 watts...how much does someone like Kittel hit?

2000 probably. Dont know how much a difference that will make considering their different builds.

 

[StryderHells]

Re: Re:

It really does confuse me why so many seem to dislike Caleb Ewan, he seems to be performing really well for a 21 year old or am I missing something? It's not really his fault that he's been so hyped up

99% of it IS due to the absolutely ridiculous level of hype that has accompanied him. I'm one of those critics and it certainly is personal or anything that he has personally said or done; but rather the cold assessment of "what he brings to the table".

Yes, he's only 21 but the fact is that he's now "playing with the big boys". He IS very very quick in a flat sprint and an exceptional crit rider but very little top professional racing is criteriums.

The facts are that he IS physically small & underweight as compared to the topline sprinters which leaves him underpowered with regards to his engine. Whilst this has sprinting repercussions, this most impacts him with regards to his "engine" & his capacity to last with the race pace; not only for longer one day races (if he were to target classics) but more importantly being able to hold onto the peleton when they "drop the hammer" from a distance out from the finish. If you watched last year's Vuelta ....... and beyond his (commendable) stage victory, you would have realised that he was "distanced" well before the finish or even hit any hills for this every reason.

This lack of size seemingly is NOT accompanied by any climbing prowess. Yes, he can go up a hill ...... if it's not overly steep and it's not raced hard but once any pace is put on ........ ping goes Caleb ! You may have noted that OGE "pulled" him from the Vuelta before they got to any real mountains; if he's going to be the great sprinter people want him to be then he's going to have to find some solutions or he won't be finishing any GT/winning on the Champs Elysses. His lack of size/small engine renders him of zero value as a domestique at any race so he is in essence a "one trick pony"

Ewan might certainly win a helluva lot of races; the question is what level/what standard. Yes, he can continue to "beat up" against 3rd tier riders. No doubt, he'll usually be in good form at this time of year so some TdU stages could be one the cards. He could win some stages at other 1 week tours against other 2nd tier sprinters/non specialist sprinters. Maybe even a couple of early stages of Giro/Vuelta but that's it. Mega star with Monuments on his palmares; Cavendish size stage win tally ........ don't think so !

Thank you! Thank you! Thank you!

I could not say it better!

Unfortunately, some fangirls are just blindfolded and would not accept reality. This reminds me of the Porte's discussion before the last year's Giro.

Oh boy, how many insults did I have to listen to for disregarding his overall GT chances. Just about every Aussie on this forum already saw him winning the Giro/Tour combo and would not accept otherwise.

Yeah but none of that makes him a poor rider, so what if he won't be a mega star but it doesn't really justify people bagging him out whenever he drops of the pace. I think some people just need to grow up a little bit.
I don't completely disagree with you @Dirkprovin and I also don't see him living up to the hype but he will carve out a good career.
Jancouver on the other hand just seems to dislike Australians from what i've seen on the time lurking on the forum before I decided to start posting so it's hard to take you seriously matey

 

[sienna]

Re:

Wow Woods!

Who &#63

 

[Anderis]

Wow, I didn't expect Woods to be that good! And he will be 30 this year. It's rare to see someone being nobody at 26/27 becoming that good later.

Seems like Cannondale has made some good transfers for this year.

 

[Velolover2]

Michael Woods He dropped anyone bar Henao on that steep climb. Better than Porte and Pozzovivo.

The next big GC rider? He kinda reminds me of Hejsedal.

 

[Arredondo]

Woods is a beast. If he would be 23 or 24, he would have been a new Purito Rodriguez. Super explosive guy.

 

[Arredondo]

Re:

Michael Woods He dropped anyone bar Henao on the steep climb. Better than Porte and Pozzovivo.

The next big GC rider? He kinda reminds me of Hejsedal.

Woods is more a classic rider. Rider for super steep, shorter climbs. But he can do well too on longer climbs. It's a former (marathon)runner.

He looks a lot like Dan Martin. Let's hope for him he's got better bike handling skills.

 

[Arredondo]

Re:

Michael Woods He dropped anyone bar Henao on the steep climb. Better than Porte and Pozzovivo.

The next big GC rider? He kinda reminds me of Hejsedal.

Woods is more a classic rider. Rider for super steep, shorter climbs. But he can do well too on longer climbs. It's a former (marathon)runner.

He looks a lot like Dan Martin. Let's hope for him he's got better bike handling skills.

 

[Velolover2]

Re:

Woods is a beast. If he would be 23 or 24, he would have been a new Purito Rodriguez. Super explosive guy.

You think he is explosive? Large and Goofy-like but for some reason really good on small, short climbs as well.
He looks more like Hejsedal or Dumoulin.

Guys like Hejsedal is not even bad at setting a tempo on murs.

 

[Velolover2]

He is only 1.75, damn. He just looked huge compared to Henao, Porte and Pozzovivo.

 

[BigMac]

Re: Re:

Woods is a beast. If he would be 23 or 24, he would have been a new Purito Rodriguez. Super explosive guy.

You think he is explosive? Large and Goofy-like but for some reason really good on small, short climbs as well.
He looks more like Hejsedal or Dumoulin.

Guys like Hejsedal is not even bad at setting a tempo on murs.

I think the comparison to Dan Martin is more fortunate.

 

[dirkprovin]

Stryder, in no way am I implying that Ewan is an imposter OR a bad rider. I just feel that the hype has been ridiculous for some years and OGE probably fell for "the three card trick" in signing him when they did. I'm not too sure that all that many other teams would've been that interested after a cold-blooded analysis of what he brings to the table ...... and his development capacity. It was his 2014 senior racing showings that removed any rose coloured tint from my viewing lens and they really laid bare just how underpowered he was (and still is).

Whilst I fully agree with The Hegelian that riders develop; physically Ewan is starting from a position considerably behind most, especially in his "line of business" and I'm just not sure how much more bulk is viable without further handicapping his climbing which is already deficient.

We also need to realise that OGE's GT focus is changing considerably towards GC. They will still take sprinters and give them some support but there will be no more repeats of 2013 where they towed the unperforming unwieldy caravan that was M.Harley Goss around the race route. You will need to have survival capacity in the mountains which the likes of Matthews possess. They will probably retain a strong TTT interest, another area where Ewan is 'dead weight'.

He will most certainly win a considerable number of races in his career; the question is just what will be the level/quality of these races. OGE will, most certainly, re-sign him for another couple of years although there are certainly a number of far greater priorities on this front. The end of that contract ..... well, we'll just need to wait and see. Whilst Jancouver's trolling is incredibly tiresome, I do feel that AUS media and a good deal of the AUS fandom have been heavily oversold in Ewan and the end dividend may prove disappointing in comparison to "the sales-talk"

 

[Gloin22]

Woods is just massively peaking here, he was setting records on Corkscrew and Willunga on 1st of january already, he's better prepared than most aussies here lol He knows if he gets himself some easiest WT points available on circuit his value as rider for teams in future will be that much higher and it's a perfect strategy.

 

[jaylew]

Re: Re:

Woods is a beast. If he would be 23 or 24, he would have been a new Purito Rodriguez. Super explosive guy.

You think he is explosive? Large and Goofy-like but for some reason really good on small, short climbs as well.
He looks more like Hejsedal or Dumoulin.

But he isn't large. And he's certainly not tall like those guys. Edit: looks like you already figured that out.

Wow, I didn't expect Woods to be that good! And he will be 30 this year. It's rare to see someone being nobody at 26/27 becoming that good later.

As someone mentioned before, he was a runner - a miler but had injury issues and didn't touch a bike until 2011.

 

[KyoGrey]

Excited to see what Rubén can offer in Willunga. And of course, Rafa Valls with his early-season peaking (maybe too early in this case) is also an outside hazard for the locals.

 

[Anderis]

Re:

Woods is just massively peaking here, he was setting records on Corkscrew and Willunga on 1st of january already, he's better prepared than most aussies here lol He knows if he gets himself some easiest WT points available on circuit his value as rider for teams in future will be that much higher and it's a perfect strategy.

I always wonder why many other riders aren't doing the same. I guess it takes more than just peak for given early race to be in contention. Otherwise it makes no sense NOT to peak for races like this for riders who are decent but not good enough to be a real factor in races like Ardennes or GTs. I know leaders need domesiques who are in good form during the spring and summer but each team should be capable of having some guys peaking for easy points in TdU.

 

[yaco]

Re:

Well, Jancouver, I AM an Aussie; albeit one with joint AUS/RSA citizenship !

I, too, am highly sceptical of Porte's GT potential. An excellent GT super-domestique; a rider who can win good one week tours and bring in worthwhile points hauls but on all the evidence to hand, he lacks the day-in day-out consistency, his TTing is good but far from elite standard and not always consistency and I'm not convinced of his race savvy.

However, the TLMRP crap is just that but you seem to be pretty amused by it; at least someone is.

Yaco, whilst I agree that Tzurruka is a complete WTF signing for OGE; what may've mitigated against McCarthy signing for OGE at the present time is his likely wish to pursue some of his own goals. Whilst he could be of value as a GT domestique; OGE quite probably already have riders on their books targeting those same "target races" as McCarthy. A few years time, this may have changed somewhat.

Have been following McCarthy's progress and he was out of contract in 2016. Would have been a good fit but maybe Chavez had a role in the recruitment of Tzurruka.