2017 Tirreno-Adriatico, March 8-14, WT

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

To me it looked like the two hot steppers Gaviria and Boonen crashed first. Not surprising since they are pretty crash prone. Like Contador, it seems to have gotten into Tommeke's head, it can't be a coincidence crashing this much.

It probably isn't, but it very much can be the case.

Do you think its the case?

 

[RedheadDane]

Re:

Gav has ripped jersey so he probably crashed.

Well, it seems pretty clear from several of the other posts here that he did indeed crash. Bit more likely than sudden jersey failure too...

 

[Netserk]

Take a guess based on the first three words

 

[kingjr]

Re:

To me it looked like the two hot steppers Gaviria and Boonen crashed first. Not surprising since they are pretty crash prone. Like Contador, it seems to have gotten into Tommeke's head, it can't be a coincidence crashing this much.

They didn't, it was someone in front of Boonen.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

Take a guess based on the first three words

So I guess the whole point of your post then was to nitpick a point that you very much agree on. Got you!

 

[Vroome.exe]

Re: Re:

Gav has ripped jersey so he probably crashed.

Well, it seems pretty clear from several of the other posts here that he did indeed crash. Bit more likely than sudden jersey failure too...

Well we didn't get to see crash on tv and he could have crashed earlier so nothing is certain.

 

[Netserk]

You are free to think that, but it is a common misconception about statistics which needs correcting. Sometimes accidences will cluster.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

You are free to think that, but it is a common misconception about statistics which needs correcting. Sometimes accidences will cluster.

Ok then. At which point, then, can we definitively conclude that it isn't freak coincidences and instead a pattern due to nervousness/poor bike handling etc.?

I mean, if we ever can?

 

[kingjr]

Re: Re:

You are free to think that, but it is a common misconception about statistics which needs correcting. Sometimes accidences will cluster.

Ok then. At which point, then, can we definitively conclude that it isn't freak coincidences and instead a pattern due to nervousness/poor bike handling etc.?

I mean, if we ever can?

I repeat, he wasn't the first to go down, it was someone in front of him. Bike handling had nothing to do with this one.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

You are free to think that, but it is a common misconception about statistics which needs correcting. Sometimes accidences will cluster.

Ok then. At which point, then, can we definitively conclude that it isn't freak coincidences and instead a pattern due to nervousness/poor bike handling etc.?

I mean, if we ever can?

I repeat, he wasn't the first to go down, it was someone in front of him. Bike handling had nothing to do with this one.

I read that and thats good news, but it has nothing to do with the point Netserk made about interpreting statistics

 

[RedheadDane]

Re: Re:

Gav has ripped jersey so he probably crashed.

Well, it seems pretty clear from several of the other posts here that he did indeed crash. Bit more likely than sudden jersey failure too...

Well we didn't get to see crash on tv and he could have crashed earlier so nothing is certain.

You just said that he probably crashed. You didn't say anything about when he probably crashed. Whether he crashed in the sprint or earlier he still (probably) crashed.

 

[Vroome.exe]

Re: Re:

Gav has ripped jersey so he probably crashed.

Well, it seems pretty clear from several of the other posts here that he did indeed crash. Bit more likely than sudden jersey failure too...

Well we didn't get to see crash on tv and he could have crashed earlier so nothing is certain.

You just said that he probably crashed. You didn't say anything about when he probably crashed. Whether he crashed in the sprint or earlier he still (probably) crashed.

Maybe he was stabbed? Ok, probably not.

 

[RedheadDane]

Would that cause his jersey to get ripped?
Naah, most likely scenario is that he crashed at some point during the stage. Either during the finale, which - obviously - would make it a bit hard for him to participate in the sprint. Or earlier which might still have made him not 100% for the sprint.

 

[carton]

Re: Re:

You are free to think that, but it is a common misconception about statistics which needs correcting. Sometimes accidences will cluster.

Ok then. At which point, then, can we definitively conclude that it isn't freak coincidences and instead a pattern due to nervousness/poor bike handling etc.?

I mean, if we ever can?

We can't. We just don't have the data set. If you had a data set of all crashes in the peloton for the last three years I think you could give it a good go as to whether a rider is actually more likely to crash than his peers. You'd want to control for weather and placings at the least.

But yeah, given how much your average rider crashes, for a top sprinter, I'd venture an uninformed guess you'd really have to be looking at something like three crashes a year for three years for it to start to look significant.

 

[del1962]

Steppers coming in after 3 minutes Jugnels, Gav, Tom, Keisse

Stybar held up for 2 minutes

Wellens held up

What happened to Rosa and Landa, deliberately losing time for tomorrows stage?

 

[dacooley]

well, the sagan-gaviria duel is postponed until MSR

 

[Max Rockatansky]

Re:

Current weather forecast for tomorrow's Terminillo stage. Sunny, but freezing cold.

http://www.ilmeteo.it/meteo/Terminillo

It still looks good. Will be around 0°C at the top of the pass. Aru named Yates as his main favorite to win.

 

[RattaKuningas]

Nice win for Sagan. Had to watch replay of the stage because wasn't able to watch live today.
I hope that Aru and Nibali will be able to do something tomorrow. Fingers crossed for epic stage. I don't want to see sprint to the finish line.

 

[dirk nowitzki]

Nibali is too old or i have to say as too much kilometers in his legs , i think Tomorrow nairo is going to attack but i expect Pinot to resist and not lose to much time , as maybe for TJ VAN but for him i 'm no so confident

 

[carton]

Re:

Nibali is too old or i have to say as too much kilometers in his legs , i think Tomorrow nairo is going to attack but i expect Pinot to resist and not lose to much time , as maybe for TJ VAN but for him i 'm no so confident

Cycling ain't basketball; I don't think fatigue accumulates on the joints in quite the same way. A Nairo Thibaut 1-2 sounds about right, but I'm hoping to see some life from Lo Squalo and Lo Gumby tomorrow as well.

 

[spiritualride]

What happened to Cavendish today? I thought this would be a decent pre-MSR test stage.

 

[Laplaz]

Quintana vs. Yates vs. Dumoulin vs. Pinot

 

[Tonton]

Re:

Nibali is too old or i have to say as too much kilometers in his legs , i think Tomorrow nairo is going to attack but i expect Pinot to resist and not lose to much time , as maybe for TJ VAN but for him i 'm no so confident

Your first post dirk nowitzki, and I already like you . Welcome to the CN forums.

As Tibopino's #1 fanboy, I hope that you are right for the Pinot-Quintana 1-2 finish (yes, I changed the order ). I have big expectations for tomorrow: after La Ruta, I can't help but being greedy.

I'll be interested in Nibali's performance: so far, he hasn't shown anything. Same for Aru. Both need some morale boost to get their season on track.

If the climbers race conservative, just like at the '15 Vuelta, Dumoulin will hang on. And that's dangerous.

 

[Kokoso]

All I hope for is SOMETHING nice from Kreuziger, escapee win and Adam Yates doing best of GC contenders.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Bernal FTW!