2017 Tour de France CQ game

[Armchair cyclist]

Stage 20 "Do a lap of the football pitch before you finish": sounds like a PE lesson from my schooldays.

Green points
All of the points are as good as guaranteed now, but this seems to have become a category in its own right.

BODNAR Maciej 80 0 team
FROOME Chris 55 2 teams
KWIATKOWSKI Michal 50 0 team
MARTIN Tony 25 1 team
IMPEY Daryl 15 1 team
CONTADOR VELASCO Alberto 10 1 team
ARNDT Nikias 5 0 team
URAN URAN Rigoberto 3 3 teams
KÜNG Stefan 2 2 teams
CHAVANEL Sylvain 1 0 team

1= Armchair_Cyclist, BicycleBoy 55
3= AG 25 (Martin)
3= Scrool07 25 (Contador & Martin)
5= Fauniera, Laarsland, Squire 3
8= GPBlanco, Josedin 2
10= Everyone else 0

1 Fauniera 813
1 Squire 813
3 ThePirate81 776
4 Hugo87 765
5 Hayabusa 700
6 GPBlanco 660
7 Mellow_Velo 639
8 AmisVelo 635
9 Search 622
10 JustSomeGuy 612

Unless Ben Swift is first or second tomorrow for ThePirate, or Boudat cracks the top ten to give Fauniera the edge, this category looks destined to be a tie.

Yellow points

URAN URAN Rigoberto 75 3 teams
FROOME Chris 55 2 teams
CONTADOR VELASCO Alberto 30 1 team
MARTIN Tony 25 1 team
IMPEY Daryl 18 1 team
KÜNG Stefan 2 2 teams
DE GENDT Thomas 1 4 teams
BRAJKOVIC Janez 1 6 teams
...
MARTIN Daniel -1 1 team
BROWN Nathan -1 4 teams
TALANSKY Andrew -1 3 teams
NIEVE ITURRALDE Mikel -10 2 teams
BARGUIL Warren -21 6 teams
BARDET Romain -70 5 teams


On the day
1 Squire 76
2 Fauniera 75
3 Laarsland 74
4 Armchair_Cyclist 56
5 BicycleBoy 55
6 Scrool07 27
7 AG 25
8 GPBlanco 2
8 Josedin 2
10 Del1962 1
10 GeraintTooFast 1
10 Mellow_Velo 1
10 RattaKuningas 1
10 Shalgo 1
10 Trudgin 1
16 Bikeracer33 0
16 CaptCavman 0
16 Carlo_Algatrensig 0
16 Kabete 0
16 Kazistuta 0
16 Leadbelly 0
16 LosBrolin 0
16 Minessa 0
16 Rote_Laterne 0
25 Comodoro -1
25 JustSomeGuy -1
25 LightBing -1
25 Search -1
25 Yellow_Knight -1
30 Hakkie2 -10
31 Hayabusa -20
32 ThePirate81 -21
33 Vladimir -32
34 Hugo87 -69
35 DJW -70
36 BluesInTheBottle -71
37 Al_Pacino -91
37 AmisVelo -91
Collective_Wisdom 0

3 of this morning's top 5 are the top three net scorers of the day, while the overnight leader is joint last. And that means....

Standings:

1 AmisVelo 1945
1 Fauniera 1945
3 Squire 1924
4 Laarsland 1694
5 Hugo87 1693
6 Armchair_Cyclist 1547
7 Vladimir 1475
8 Al_Pacino 1471
9 ThePirate81 1462
10 Hayabusa 1426
11 GPBlanco 1308
12 Search 1302
13 BicycleBoy 1257
14 Minessa 1137
15 Mellow_Velo 1117
16 Kabete 1109
17 JustSomeGuy 1099
18 Shalgo 1088
19 Kazistuta 1035
20 Leadbelly 1012
21 DJW 993
22 LosBrolin 990
23 RattaKuningas 982
24 Comodoro 976
25 Hakkie2 961
26 BluesInTheBottle 927
27 Carlo_Algatrensig 893
28 Scrool07 890
29 GeraintTooFast 815
30 Rote_Laterne 724
31 Bikeracer33 690
32 Yellow_Knight 642
33 Del1962 611
34 LightBing 596
35 CaptCavman 447
36 Trudgin 361
37 Josedin 334
38 AG 328
Collective_Wisdom 1325


Yes: we have a draw. I had expected Uran and Contador to pass Bardet and Barguil respectively, and I was aware that hat would give Amis Velo a lead of just 6 points. But then Uran took 3 points for 8th on the stage, halving the margin. And that placing raised Uran to 8th behind Matthews in the points competition: 2 more points in favour of Fauniera. And in that move, he overtook Barguil, losing him a point for his placing in that category, and with that point the gap between our two leaders disappeared.

Other than Fauniera's rise to share the top step, only 8 other teams improved their positions on the day: Laarsland has as narrow an advantage as is possible over Hugo87 for 4th, and I move up 2 places (riser of the day) to 6th.

 

[fauniera]

I thought i was 3 points behind as i didn't check the points classification. Now it would be nice if Signore Cimolai could stay outside the top ten tomorrow...

Edit: Just realized that a handful of sprinters can pass both Uran and Barguil in the points competition tomorrow. Damn.

 

[Armchair cyclist]

What follows is the long-winded version of what Fauniera says above:

So will it stay a draw?
We can ignore what might happen to the riders they have in common (ARU Fabio, MEINTJES Louis, BOUDAT Thomas, KISERLOVSKI Robert, BETANCUR GOMEZ Carlos Alberto, VOECKLER Thomas)

So that leaves the potential and vulnerabilities of BARDET Romain, BARGUIL Warren and CIMOLAI Davide (for Amis Velo) pitched against those of KITTEL Marcel, URAN URAN Rigoberto and KOZHATAYEV Bakhtiyar for Fauniera.

Kittel can clearly neither gain nor lose points at this stage.
Cimolai is probably the only one of the 6 with even a slim chance of a top ten place: he did get 6th in the bunch sprint in Pau.

So long as all five remaining in the race finish tomorrow, their GC points are most unlikely to change (the three well placed riders won't let it happen, and the other 2 are so far away from the top 50 that they will get neither more than less than the 20 "other finishers" points). Equally the only way KoM rankings will make a difference is if three riders in the top 12 of that ranking fail to finish, which won't happen.

So the real potential for change is in the standings in the Points category. No-one expects Uran or Barguil to improve on their standings in that category tomorrow, but there are still sprinters who could overtake them. And whereas Uran is susceptible to losing 3 points, Barguil's vulnerability is only 1 point.

The best remaining sprinters (Matthews, Boassen Hagen, Colbrelli, Greipel, Kristoff) can't overtake the two key riders for the simple reason that they are already ahead of them, but there are highly accomplished sprinters who definitely have them within range, so there are three riders who hold the destination of the game in their gift: Groenewegen, Degenkolb and Bouhanni.
If more than one rider passes Uran, advantage is with Amis Velo; if none passes Uran, but one or more overhauls Bardet, then advantage to Fauniera. Otherwise it remains a tie.

To pass Barguil
Groenewegen needs just a top ten finish, or 11th+15th at intermediate, or 12th+14th etc down to 15th + 11th, or top 9 at intermediate regardless of finish position.
Degenkolb needs top 2 at finish, or 3rd + 14th, or 4th + 12th, 5th + 10th, 6th +8th, 7th + 6th, 8th +4th, 10th+3rd, 12th+2nd or 15th +1st.
Bouhanni needs just 1 more point, so 2nd, 3rd +13th, 4th +11th, 5th +9th, 6th + 7th, 7th + 5th, 8th + 4th, 9th + 3rd, 11th + 2nd or 14th +1st.


To pass Uran:
Groenewegen needs top 6, or 7th+15th, 8th + 13th, 9th + 11th, 10th + 10th, 11th + 9th, 12th + 8th, 13+7, 14+6 or 15+5
Degenkolb needs 2nd, 3rd + 8th, 4th + 6th, 5th + 4th, 6th + 3rd, 7th + 2nd or 9th + 1st
or Bouhanni needs 2nd, 3rd + 7th, 4th + 5th, 5th + 4th, 6th + 3rd, 7th + 2nd or 8th + 1st

Confused yet?

 

[Armchair cyclist]

I thought i was 3 points behind as i didn't check the points classification. Now it would be nice if Signore Cimolai could stay outside the top ten tomorrow...

Edit: Just realized that a handful of sprinters can pass both Uran and Barguil in the points competition tomorrow. Damn.

But they might pass Barguil but not Uran, to your advantage. You essentially need Groenewegen to get 7-12 points, Degenkolb to get 22-27, or Bouhanni to get 23-28, so long as none of them get more than the 2nd value. If one o them gets more than that, it is probably still a tie.

 

[Armchair cyclist]

I don't think anyone relevant picked up points at the intermediate sprint.

So barring Cimolai doing better than expected:
Fauniera needs Groenewegen to come 7th-10th, without a top 2 placing for Degenkolb or Bouhanni;
Amis Velo needs 2 (or 3) of the following three events: Groenewegen in top 6, Degenkolb in top 2, Bouhanni in top 2.

 

[Armchair cyclist]

But Cimolai did get a top ten place, so before doing the calculations, I think that is a 3 point win for Amis Velo.

So I'll have to put up with his gloating. He isn't a poster on either of the forums (occasional lurker) that host the game, but I used to teach his daughter and I invited him to join in then, and I still email him the details and links. Then he goes and beats me most events.

 

[fauniera]

Missing the Giro-Tour double by 3 points ain't fun. Or by Landa's 1 second. But then its nearly funny as well.

Anyway, congrats to AmisVelo! And thanks to Armchair cyclist for the game!

 

[Hayabusa]

Think not being an active poster warrants disqualification from the competition.

Now just to find a way to disqualify the other 8 people above me in the competition...

 

[Armchair cyclist]

Stage 21 The final analysis

Green points

Perhaps not the parade of sprinting talent that we usually have on the Champs Elysees, and maybe that's why they are not major picks in the game. No yellow jersey bonus today.

GROENEWEGEN Dylan 80 2 teams
GREIPEL André 50 1 team
BOASSON HAGEN Edvald 35 0 team
BOUHANNI Nacer 25 1 team
KRISTOFF Alexander 15 0 team
BOZIC Borut 10 6 teams
CIMOLAI Davide 5 2 teams
PERICHON Pierre-Luc 3 0 team
SELIG Rüdiger 2 0 team
BENNATI Daniele 1 0 team

1= GeraintTooFast, Kazistuta 80
3 RattaKuningas 50
4 Trudgin 25
5= BicycleBoy, BluesInTheBottle, JustSomeGuy, Kabete, LightBing, Vladimir 10
11= AmisVelo, Carlo_Algatrensig 5
13 AG 0

Final standings in the minor classification:
1 Fauniera 813
1 Squire 813
3 ThePirate81 776
4 Hugo87 765
5 Hayabusa 700
6 Kazistuta 690
7 GPBlanco 660
8 AmisVelo 640
9 Mellow_Velo 639
10 GeraintTooFast 627
11 JustSomeGuy 622
11 Search 622
13 Kabete 620
14 Shalgo 610
15 Minessa 585
16 BicycleBoy 527
17 Vladimir 521
18 Armchair_Cyclist 507
18 Laarsland 507
20 Bikeracer33 501
21 Al_Pacino 451
22 LightBing 418
23 RattaKuningas 386
24 Scrool07 356
25 LosBrolin 250
26 Hakkie2 245
27 DJW 241
28 BluesInTheBottle 239
28 CaptCavman 239
30 Yellow_Knight 230
31 Carlo_Algatrensig 228
32 Leadbelly 227
33 Comodoro 216
34 Rote_Laterne 213
35 Trudgin 101
36 AG 77
36 Josedin 77
38 Del1962 48
Collective_Wisdom 619

Froome outscored Kittel in this category because of leader's bonuses, but it is Kittel teams that dominate with 14 of the top 15 (Amis Velo being the exception). The route to success here is not necessarily sprinters (Kazistuta's sprinter dominated team only came 6th): Barguil and Uran outscore Groenewegen and Demare;Aru, Bardet and Thomas beat Greipel and Kristoff.

No splitting the top two: they have the same riders who took green points, and any riders held by one butnot the other managed no top ten finishes.

Yellow points
GROENEWEGEN Dylan 85 2 teams
GREIPEL André 50 1 team
BOUHANNI Nacer 25 1 team
BOZIC Borut 10 6 teams
CIMOLAI Davide 5 2 teams
NAVARRO GARCIA Daniel 2 11 teams
...
BARGUIL Warren -1 6 teams
URAN URAN Rigoberto -1 3 teams
MARTIN Daniel -1 1 team
DE GENDT Thomas -1 4 teams
FROOME Chris -2 2 teams


On the day:
1 GeraintTooFast 87
2 Kazistuta 85
3 RattaKuningas 49
4 Trudgin 18
5 LightBing 12
6 BluesInTheBottle 10
6 JustSomeGuy 10
6 Kabete 10
9 Vladimir 9
10 BicycleBoy 8
11 Carlo_Algatrensig 5
12 AmisVelo 4
13 AG 2
13 CaptCavman 2
13 DJW 2
13 Hakkie2 2
13 Hugo87 2
13 Leadbelly 2
13 Rote_Laterne 2
20 Armchair_Cyclist 0
20 Bikeracer33 0
20 Comodoro 0
20 GPBlanco 0
20 Hayabusa 0
20 LosBrolin 0
20 Minessa 0
20 Search 0
20 Shalgo 0
20 Yellow_Knight 0
30 Al_Pacino -1
30 Fauniera -1
30 Mellow_Velo -1
30 Scrool07 -1
30 Squire -1
30 ThePirate81 -1
36 Laarsland -2
37 Del1962 -6
37 Josedin -6
Collective_Wisdom 1

Final standings
That 7th place from Cimolai is what made the difference in the end: It gives the victory to Amis Velo. The constantly flip-flopping battle between Hugo and Laarsland is finally settled in Hugo's favour for 4th, and Kazistuta finishes with a flourish and a 4 place ride.

1 AmisVelo 1949
2 Fauniera 1944
3 Squire 1923
4 Hugo87 1695
5 Laarsland 1692
6 Armchair_Cyclist 1547
7 Vladimir 1484
8 Al_Pacino 1470
9 ThePirate81 1461
10 Hayabusa 1426
11 GPBlanco 1308
12 Search 1302
13 BicycleBoy 1265
14 Minessa 1137
15 Kazistuta 1120
16 Kabete 1119
17 Mellow_Velo 1116
18 JustSomeGuy 1109
19 Shalgo 1088
20 RattaKuningas 1031
21 Leadbelly 1014
22 DJW 995
23 LosBrolin 990
24 Comodoro 976
25 Hakkie2 963
26 BluesInTheBottle 937
27 GeraintTooFast 902
28 Carlo_Algatrensig 898
29 Scrool07 889
30 Rote_Laterne 726
31 Bikeracer33 690
32 Yellow_Knight 642
33 LightBing 608
34 Del1962 605
35 CaptCavman 449
36 Trudgin 379
37 AG 330
38 Josedin 328
Collective_Wisdom 1326



As with the Giro, teams with the race winner were not really in the hunt for the victory, but I'm fairly happy with my top ten and 2/3 of the points coming from Froome.

I'll do a bit more number analysis tomorrow.

Until then, congratulations to those who are happy that they did well, especially Amis Velo, Fauniera and Squire, commiserations to those who feel they had hard luck (that'll mainly be teams picking Kittel, Porte, Cavendish, Majka, Fuglsang, Izaguirre...), and thanks to everyone for having a go.

The balance of preferences as expressed before the game was that next year we keep the same budgets but drop to 8 riders per team, as will be the case in the races. Is that what you are happy with?

See you for the Vuelta (although I am away for the first weekend of that, so it might be a bit awkward to get it going)

 

[Hakkie2]

Best team was:

Uran
Bardet
Landa
Barguil
Vuillermoz
Nieve
Feillu
Betancur
Brown