2017 Tour de France startlist & field speculation

[DFA123]

I think BMC have the right idea. Despite what happened in the Dauphine, Porte is probably more vulnerable to losing big time on the flat/rolling stages than he is in the mountains - especially with so many flattish stages. And, even if that's not the case, riders of the quality of TJVG, Dennis, Samu and Bookwalter wouldn't have saved him in the Dauphine and won't save him in the Tour if all the big leaders take turns on attacking Porte in the mountains. He will have to largely defend for himself there.

Now, on the flat though, BMC are probably the strongest GC team and can defend comfortably and even look to gain time there if the opportunity arises. They might as well play to their strengths rather than sending a load of relatively low quality climbing doms who would get dropped as soon as a super-domestique like Landa, Valverde or Fuglsang turns up the gas.

 

[deValtos]

Re:

I think BMC have the right idea. Despite what happened in the Dauphine, Porte is probably more vulnerable to losing big time on the flat/rolling stages than he is in the mountains - especially with so many flattish stages. And, even if that's not the case, riders of the quality of TJVG, Dennis, Samu and Bookwalter wouldn't have saved him in the Dauphine and won't save him in the Tour if all the big leaders take turns on attacking Porte in the mountains. He will have to largely defend for himself there.

They would've done easily imo.

Part of the problem is that Porte was responding to lots and lots of attacks 40km before we even got television coverage. Froome had made about 10 moves before we got picutres (which was a big reason why he cracked on the last climb that many people forgot about.) Valverde and Contador were doing the same (which was also why they cracked.) Porte got dropped on the 2nd to last climb because he said he'd gone into the red too much (from his interveiw, then ofc when he recovered he got his insane legs back.)

So TVG, Samu etc wouldn't have even needed to been there on that 2nd to last climb, as long as they'd been setting a pace and stopping all the earlier attacks Porte would've been ok.

Ofc at the end of the stage we saw all the guys who hadn't attacked or responded like Fugl, Bardet, Mentijes as the freshest.

Edit: Though I agree bookwalter probably would'nt have been enough. :lol:

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

I think BMC have the right idea. Despite what happened in the Dauphine, Porte is probably more vulnerable to losing big time on the flat/rolling stages than he is in the mountains - especially with so many flattish stages. And, even if that's not the case, riders of the quality of TJVG, Dennis, Samu and Bookwalter wouldn't have saved him in the Dauphine and won't save him in the Tour if all the big leaders take turns on attacking Porte in the mountains. He will have to largely defend for himself there.

They would've done easily imo.

Part of the problem is that Porte was responding to lots and lots of attacks 40km before we even got television coverage. Froome had made about 10 moves before we got picutres (which was a big reason why he cracked on the last climb that many people forgot about.) Valverde and Contador were doing the same (which was also why they cracked.) Porte got dropped on the 2nd to last climb because he said he'd gone into the red too much (from his interveiw, then ofc when he recovered he got his insane legs back.)

So TVG, Samu etc wouldn't have even needed to been there on that 2nd to last climb, as long as they'd been setting a pace and stopping all the earlier attacks Porte would've been ok.

Ofc at the end of the stage we saw all the guys who hadn't attacked or responded like Fugl, Bardet, Mentijes as the freshest.

Edit: Though I agree bookwalter probably would'nt have been enough. :lol:

I don't think any of those riders would have helped him much if the likes of Froome, Valverde and Aru just keep on attacking wave after wave. Unless you have a super-domestique like Landa or Valverde, then any leader is going to have to either close down themselves or ride to power and hope the attackers fade.

TJVG and Samu just can't set a pace high enough to prevent riders of that class getting clear. They just don't put out enough w/kg. Porte can't just follow guys like that while Froome goes up the road, because the gap will just keep going out.

 

[deValtos]

Well hardly anyone can close down the likes of Froome/Valverde/Aru except their counterparts. The idea is though at least TVG/Samu can set a very high pace that Porte can draft behind until they get closer to the finish. It doesn't matter if they are 30s-60s up the road if Porte is nice and fresh and been riding at a constant pace.

Instead we have Porte accelerating to close down everything followed by the classic slow up where they all freewheel up hill while the lucky guys who get away like Aru/Valverde are two minutes up the road because they stop/start race behind.

Also it just discourages the sheer number of attacks from every man and their dog because a few more riders would gamble on staying with the Porte group to let the others wear themselves out in front since a Samu/TJ train is probably going to at least keep a good pace on the 3rd to last climb. I don't think you realise just how badly isolated Porte was before we even had pictures.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

Trek had a competition on twitter, those who chose the correct 9 riders could win a special TDF edition jersey. From the entry of one of the winners it seems likely this will be their team:

Contador
Degenkolb
Pantano
Felline
De Kort
Mollema
Cardoso
Gogl
Rast

Are we 100% sure that Zubeldia won't ride or did Trek just forget about him?

 

[deValtos]

Re: Re:

Trek had a competition on twitter, those who chose the correct 9 riders could win a special TDF edition jersey. From the entry of one of the winners it seems likely this will be their team:

Contador
Degenkolb
Pantano
Felline
De Kort
Mollema
Cardoso
Gogl
Rast

Are we 100% sure that Zubeldia won't ride or did Trek just forget about him?

That's a good point. Where the fudge is Haimar ?!?!

Honestly though, I bet even if he's not on the team he will still make the top 20 overall somehow, he's just that damn good.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

Well hardly anyone can close down the likes of Froome/Valverde/Aru except their counterparts. The idea is though at least TVG/Samu can set a very high pace that Porte can draft behind until they get closer to the finish. It doesn't matter if they are 30s-60s up the road if Porte is nice and fresh and been riding at a constant pace.

Instead we have Porte accelerating to close down everything followed by the classic slow up where they all freewheel up hill while the lucky guys who get away like Aru/Valverde are two minutes up the road because they stop/start race behind.

Also it just discourages the sheer number of attacks from every man and their dog because a few more riders would gamble on staying with the Porte group to let the others wear themselves out in front since a Samu/TJ train is probably going to at least keep a good pace on the 3rd to last climb. I don't think you realise just how badly isolated Porte was before we even had pictures.

I realize that Porte was isolated, but just don't think BMC has the riders to help much. TJ has never been a domestique setting pace, he can't even stay on the wheel of other teams domestiques most days. And Samu is nearly 40 years old and also has rarely done the job of pace-setting in recent years. I just don't think they are good enough. They've still got Caruso, Roche and maybe Moinard. They can do the job as well as TJ and Samu I think anyway.

But instead of loading the team with climbers of a similar level, none of whom are elite, now they've chosen a team which can dominate the flats. They can try to gain time there and should defend comfortably if needed. Plus potentially giving the best support for GVA when required - or if Porte does his usual and a bad day puts him out of contention.

 

[jaylew]

Re: Re:

A very solid BMC team, Dennis isn't so good in the peloton (or so have I been told) and doesnt climb really well to justify it, altho it had almost been a 100% sure yellow jersey given how well he is time trialing. Martin must be thrilled with no Canc, Dum and Dennis.

For sure. Still, at 14k you never know if someone just goes crazy and steals it from everyone by a couple of secs.

Roglic

 

[Pirazziattacks]

Re:

I think BMC have the right idea. Despite what happened in the Dauphine, Porte is probably more vulnerable to losing big time on the flat/rolling stages than he is in the mountains - especially with so many flattish stages. And, even if that's not the case, riders of the quality of TJVG, Dennis, Samu and Bookwalter wouldn't have saved him in the Dauphine and won't save him in the Tour if all the big leaders take turns on attacking Porte in the mountains. He will have to largely defend for himself there.

Now, on the flat though, BMC are probably the strongest GC team and can defend comfortably and even look to gain time there if the opportunity arises. They might as well play to their strengths rather than sending a load of relatively low quality climbing doms who would get dropped as soon as a super-domestique like Landa, Valverde or Fuglsang turns up the gas.

Almost identical to the setup Cadel won the tour with.
Damiano Caruso (ITA)- Brent Bookwalter (USA)
Alessandro De Marchi (ITA)- Ivan Santaromita (I)
Stefan Küng (SUI)- Marcus Burghardt (G)
Amaël Moinard (FRA)- Amaël Moinard (F)
Richie Porte (AUS)- Cadel Evans (Aus)
Nicolas Roche (IRL)- Steve Morabito (Swi)
Michael Schär (SUI)- Michael Schär (Swi)
Greg Van Avermaet (BEL)- George Hincapie (USA) ok not so much with this one
Danilo Wyss (SUI)- Manuel Quinziato (I)

Not sure it'll work for Richie though. If (and that's a big if) he avoids his usual disastrous day or two plus various kinds of bad luck, Richie still doesn't have much experience dealing with repeated attacks from strong teams with multiple GC options. 2011 Cadel had already been beaten by the Schleck bros + Sastre, Basso + Nibali etc.

 

[claude cat]

Orica Scott team for the TdF

Michael Albasini (SUI, 36) - 9th TDF appearance
Esteban Chaves (COL, 27) - debut
Luke Durbridge (AUS, 26) - 4th TDF appearance
Mathew Hayman (AUS, 39) - 3rd TDF appearance
Damien Howson (AUS, 24) - debut
Daryl Impey (RSA, 32) - 5th TDF appearance
Jens Keulekeire (BEL, 28) - 2nd TDF appearance
Roman Kreuziger (CZE, 31) - 8th TDF appearance
Simon Yates (GBR, 24) - 3rd TDF appearance

http://www.greenedgecycling.com/news/orica-scott-s-gc-focus-remains-for-tour-de-france-as-nine-rider-line-up-is-confirmed

 

[Valv.Piti]

Very nice team. Impey, Keuk and Albasini can win stage and support the captains in various terrains and Kreuziger and Howson are very good mountain domestiques, then Hayman and Durbo Turbo for the flat lands. Feels well balanced.

 

[Anderis]

Orica could use one more climber IMO. The one they don't have in their 26-men roster ATM (because Verona rode the Giro and Power/Haig are not there yet).

 

[dirkprovin]

Re:

Very nice team. Impey, Keuk and Albasini can win stage and support the captains in various terrains and Kreuziger and Howson are very good mountain domestiques, then Hayman and Durbo Turbo for the flat lands. Feels well balanced.

Reasonably well balanced but I fear that White is trying to have an "each way bet" re GC with Chaves. Whilst I think its quite plausible that, given he can maintain health and stay out of crashes, he may ride himself into some real form during the Tour; its highly unlikely that he will be able to do so to the extent of "riding himself into contention" in a GC sense even to top 10 status.

With that in mind, I'd have probably held Howson out of the Tour and keep him for a serious Chaves assault on the Vuelta and maybe given that ride to young Haig who has shown this season that he can ride very serious duty in the mountains and is currently in good form.

Orica could use one more climber IMO. The one they don't have in their 26-men roster ATM (because Verona rode the Giro and Power/Haig are not there yet).

Plaza rode an excellent Giro and will almost certainly return for Vuelta. Verona ... possibly but not necessarily certain. I'd actually contend that Haig has already shown at one week races this year that he IS of serious value in the mountains. Power ..... agree that he's not there yet; indeed has shown nothing so far with regards any capacity to be useful in a GT line-up although in fairness, this IS really his first proper pro season.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Trek

Gogl
Mollema
Irizar
Felline
Degenkolb
Contador
Cardoso
De Kort
Pantano

 

[Laplaz]

Re:

Trek

Gogl
Mollema
Irizar
Felline
Degenkolb
Contador
Cardoso
De Kort
Pantano

Decent team for Conty.

 

[vladimir]

Haimar Zubelida has ridden every TDF since 2001 except 2010 when I think he got injured in the Dauphine. Sad that he is not selected this year...

 

[deValtos]

Re:

Haimar Zubelida has ridden every TDF since 2001 except 2010 when I think he got injured in the Dauphine. Sad that he is not selected this year...

It is a sad day for cycling fans globally

 

[dusty red roads]

oi vey!!!!! No original Ninja???!!!! Oh well, there's always the Vuelta!

 

[Escarabajo]

Dirkprovin, you need to realize that Orica and any other team primary objective will always be the Tour and everything else will be secondary to that. If not good GC placing is obtained, stage wins are welcomed. Until all alternatives and potential possibilities are expired they won't default on the Tour assault. So no, I would not have changed plans either.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

Dirkprovin, you need to realize that Orica and any other team primary objective will always be the Tour and everything else will be secondary to that. If not good GC placing is obtained, stage wins are welcomed. Until all alternatives and potential possibilities are expired they won't default on the Tour assault. So no, I would not have changed plans either.

Good post, I agree.

 

[Anderis]

We're revealing our Le Tour de France team rider-by-rider, starting NOW!! We're thrilled to announce Tour debutant Taylor Phinney as first of the #GreenArgyle nine.

I didn't think he would make it TBH.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Wait what? Trek don't announce their team one rider per day, Cannondale don't announce their team last, what is happening?

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Re: Re:

Trek

Gogl
Mollema
Irizar
Felline
Degenkolb
Contador
Cardoso
De Kort
Pantano

Decent team for Conty.

More support for Degenkolb than I expected. What is that guy realistically going to do?

 

[ciranda]

Re:

So Astana has confirmed 6 riders till now:
Fuglsang
Aru
Lutsenko
Valgren
Grivko
Zeits

Who will be the others 3?

Kozhatayev, Gruzdev, Cataldo.

Unless Chernetckii is picked by Astana there will be no russians in the TDF, first time since 1988 or something I think.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Trek

Gogl
Mollema
Irizar
Felline
Degenkolb
Contador
Cardoso
De Kort
Pantano

Decent team for Conty.

More support for Degenkolb than I expected. What is that guy realistically going to do?

I think the team hopes that he'll be winning Paris Roubaix and MSR with them long after Contador has retired. Got to keep him happy though by supporting him at the Tour.