2018 Giro d'Italia, Stage 1: Jerusalem - Jerusalem ITT 9.7 K

[Red Rick]

Re: 2018 Giro d'Italia, Stage 1: Jerusalem - Jerusalem ITT 9

Dumoulin must be the happiest man in the world right now. He is in great shape, won a stage, wears pink and his biggest rival was way worse than expected.
The big question is whether Froome was bad because of a bad shape or because of the crash. And actually I don't even know what's the better option. If this performance was due to his bad shape I have problems seeing him improve so much that he can win. Moreover, if he loses over half a minute on 10 kilometers, he'd lose a lot of time on 35 kilometers? He'd lose over two minutes on Dumoulin just in the time trials and I'm not convinced he has the climbing shape to make that up.
If he is injured however (imo the more likely option. I just refuse to believe Froome messed up his preparation so badly) he could recover and be back at his best in the alps. However you don't lose so much time due to a few minor bruises you got hours ago. Last year Geraint Thomas was still superb after his crash, getting 2nd in the ITT, gaining around 1:20 on a good time trialist like Nibali and still he had to abandon the race. I think Froome will lose more time in the first week, but maybe he can recover. That would in my opinion also be the best scenario for the race.

Actually what I just wrote about Froome 100% counts for Lopez as well. We don't exactly know how good/bad Lopez is in TT's so his bad performance didn't strike out as much as Froome's, but I really really don't think a 61st place represents how good he really is.

Gotta take into account that crashes take a lot of energy as well, so it's especially bad if you're counting on it to improve during the first part of the race. If the crash makes you waste too much extra energy, you're just exhausing yourself while you're hanging on by a thread.

 

[May0maniac]

Re:

Pozzovivo is looking really good right now, but I fear that he might have peaked too early. Of course we could also just withness the birth of Robo-Pozzo who's able to sprint, attacks on descents, finished top 10 in TTs and wrecks everyone in the high mountains, but I don't think that's realistic.
The other problems are that he lost his probably best mountain domestique because of a crash durning the recon and potential crosswinds on stage 3.

 

[Ivan_Basso_77]

Re: Re:

Pozzovivo is looking really good right now, but I fear that he might have peaked too early. Of course we could also just withness the birth of Robo-Pozzo who's able to sprint, attacks on descents, finished top 10 in TTs and wrecks everyone in the high mountains, but I don't think that's realistic.
The other problems are that he lost his probably best mountain domestique because of a crash durning the recon and potential crosswinds on stage 3.

Totally agree. He will be very satisfied IMO if he manages to keep himself safe till stage 6, where I hope he will try to make a first strike. I am optimistic for his chances.

 

[YavorD]

Thing is for Froome that the crash itself might not've been that bad, more likely, I think, the crash made him afraid and risk less. He looked a bit scared in the corners to me.. Of course, the crash take its toll buut the fact that he wasnt confident enough brings another few to 10 seconds lose.
However that's just great for the race, becaause if Sky wanna win we gotta see a different thing than the defensive TTT on the climbs, they're best at.

 

[huangho]

So bananito were better than Froome on a 9k ITT?? Now I have seen it all!!

 

[Koronin]

Re:

So bananito were better than Froome on a 9k ITT?? Now I have seen it all!!

I didn't expect that from Bananito.


(hmmm....my avatar also seems to have disappeared and doesn't seem to be fixable at the moment.)

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

Betancur is the new Cobo.

Well he would be if he could win something, like a grand tour. Can't see it happening somehow.

 

[The Hegelian]

Ride of the day has to be S.Yates. Clearly in good nick.

 

[Parker]

Re:

Ride of the day has to be S.Yates. Clearly in good nick.

He's no mug at this sort of short effort with changing pace. People forget (or never knew) that he had the skills to be a track World Champion in the Points Race.

 

[Tonton]

Re: Re:

Pozzovivo is looking really good right now, but I fear that he might have peaked too early. Of course we could also just withness the birth of Robo-Pozzo who's able to sprint, attacks on descents, finished top 10 in TTs and wrecks everyone in the high mountains, but I don't think that's realistic.
The other problems are that he lost his probably best mountain domestique because of a crash durning the recon and potential crosswinds on stage 3.

Eddico Merckxovivo right now. I'm very impressed with his Alps-LBL-Prologue streak. Peaking too early may indeed be a possibility. If so, week 3 will hurt. A lot. Or he's the new Merckx, will Giro, Tour, RRWC, GDL, destroy everyone. Pozzovino?

 

[skippo12]

Re: 2018 Giro d'Italia, Stage 1: Jerusalem - Jerusalem ITT 9

I get a bad feeling about this years race. Froome seems to be worse than Dumoulin but Sky cannot change their style and most likely will control the race. I expect Dumoulin to follow the Sky train in the mountains and long range attacks to fail. Combined with the advantage he has in the second timetrial the fight for the win might end up less exciting than I hoped it to be.

 

[Tonton]

Re: 2018 Giro d'Italia, Stage 1: Jerusalem - Jerusalem ITT 9

I get a bad feeling about this years race. Froome seems to be worse than Dumoulin but Sky cannot change their style and most likely will control the race. I expect Dumoulin to follow the Sky train in the mountains and long range attacks to fail. Combined with the advantage he has in the second timetrial the fight for the win might end up less exciting than I hoped it to be.

Wasn't this the scenario all along though? And isn't it the signal for the climbers to attack? With Froome not taking advantage of 25% of the ITT total, to me it makes it more exciting. And like I said at the same time last year, I don't understand the "Dumoulin will have a day off, Dumoulin can't climb" narrative. Dumoulin WAS the best GT rider last year. Don't let the double-trouble fool you. Last year, TD was overlooked, not put away quickly because Quintana, Nibali, waited for the day off, did nothing, let him hang in there, hoping or thinking that the Vuelta would repeat itself.

If no one attacks, Dumoulin will follow, and win. Train? He loves it. Pinot, Pozzo, Aru have to shake this, hope that Sky won't help Dumoulin by bringing attacks back. Let him work. But the said climbers have to find the b@lls and risk a podium spot. Not sure that it will happen...who wants to be the guy who cracked Dumoulin, made him lose the Giro, and finish 5th due to blow-backs?

Dumoulin will win this.

 

[DanielSong39]

Re: 2018 Giro d'Italia, Stage 1: Jerusalem - Jerusalem ITT 9

If no one attacks, Dumoulin will follow, and win. Train? He loves it. Pinot, Pozzo, Aru have to shake this, hope that Sky won't help Dumoulin by bringing attacks back. Let him work. But the said climbers have to find the b@lls and risk a podium spot. Not sure that it will happen...who wants to be the guy who cracked Dumoulin, made him lose the Giro, and finish 5th due to blow-backs?

Dumoulin will win this.

Aru?

He's had a few late fades in Grand Tours the last couple of years.

 

[Katabatic]

Re: 2018 Giro d'Italia, Stage 1: Jerusalem - Jerusalem ITT 9

If no one attacks, Dumoulin will follow, and win. Train? He loves it. Pinot, Pozzo, Aru have to shake this, hope that Sky won't help Dumoulin by bringing attacks back. Let him work. But the said climbers have to find the b@lls and risk a podium spot. Not sure that it will happen...who wants to be the guy who cracked Dumoulin, made him lose the Giro, and finish 5th due to blow-backs?

Dumoulin will win this.

Aru?

He's had a few late fades in Grand Tours the last couple of years.

That really is dependent on context. Dumoulin probably won't destroy himself chasing Aru if it's pre-stage 16. He knows he can probably make up close to two minutes on someone like Aru in the TT.

If it's after stage 16, a lot of players will be looking out for potential podium spots, so they'll be incentivised to chase if a climber tries to attack to gain time on the selection.

It's really up to Sky to change their tactics. If they use their normal train, Dumoulin will probably end up with a tow up the mountain. They'll need to try something else.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I only wonder how Dumoulin will fare on Zoncolan.

He did well on steep, irregular, short climbs (Cumbre del Sol). He did well on long but regular steep climbs (Blockhaus). But Zoncolan is super steep and irregular and longer (twice Cumbre del Sol). I really don't know, an off day there can cost you 4 minutes.

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

I only wonder how Dumoulin will fare on Zoncolan.

He did well on steep, irregular, short climbs (Cumbre del Sol). He did well on long but regular steep climbs (Blockhaus). But Zoncolan is super steep and irregular and longer (twice Cumbre del Sol). I really don't know, an off day there can cost you 4 minutes.

This isn't even close to Cumbre del Sol.

Zoncolan is pretty regular actually. The middle 6km are 15%. Pacing yourself is super important and I trust Dumoulin to do that well. If he rides within himself he shouldn't blow up, and in that case it's a pretty straightforward W/kg drag race but just with less rolling and air resistance, so it shouldn't be that different from getting dropped early on Blockhaus, though I have to say that at steeper gradients muscle recruitment could be a little different too.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Yeah, but the placing is quite good for Dumoulin, after 2 weeks. Not 3. I'll guess we'll see. That's if nobody crashes out before then

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

Yeah, but the placing is quite good for Dumoulin, after 2 weeks. Not 3. I'll guess we'll see. That's if nobody crashes out before then

Yeah. I think that if Dumoulin bleeds a little time accross the first MTF already then he's not gonna win. Zoncolan is hard, but the Finestre is the real make or break climb of this Giro.