2018 Tour of Flanders

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Who will win

  • Peter Sagan

    Votes: 40 28.0%
  • Greg Van Avermaet

    Votes: 12 8.4%
  • Philippe Gilbert

    Votes: 13 9.1%
  • Tiesj Benoot

    Votes: 13 9.1%
  • Michal Kwiatkowski

    Votes: 5 3.5%
  • Sep Vanmarcke

    Votes: 12 8.4%
  • Niki Terpstra

    Votes: 14 9.8%
  • Zdenek Stybar

    Votes: 11 7.7%
  • Wout Van Aert

    Votes: 2 1.4%
  • Other

    Votes: 21 14.7%

  • Total voters
    143
  • Poll closed .
Re: Re:

DFA123 said:
Screecher said:
DFA123 said:
Screecher said:
DFA123 said:
One win and three podiums in 24 attempts at monuments now for Sagan. Surely he is better than that?
Easier said than done. He has a world class punch/sprint, but lacks a good engine. His team is never there when he actually needs them (bora tactics :( ). He's also one of a few who can win by both attacking and sprinting so it can be difficult to decide how he´s going to approach it.
It's the lack of podiums which surprised me most. We all know he's only won one monument. But only three podiums in the other 23 attempts is really poor for someone with such a fast finish.

I guess we should probably re-assess how prestigious a WC win is nowdays as well. Because it certainly appears a lot easier to win than a monument - which never used to be the case.
It's not easier to win a WC in general, but it does seem easier for Sagan in particular. For whatever reason he's not getting marked as much in those races. He can just hide in the peloton and do 1 strong attack/sprint, which is the perfect situation for him.
I guess the difference is that a WC can be a really easy or a fairly controlled race (at least for something that is 250km), whereas a monument can't be. Even MSR gets very chaotic and unpredictable at the finish.

I suppose when valuing WC wins you really have to dig a bit deeper and look at the course as well. Whereas monuments are much more static in their value.
And a relatively easy and controlled race is exactly what Sagan wants. Just look at E3 and then Gent this year. First one blew up early and Sagan was nowhere and second one was controlled and Sagan won.
 
Re: Re:

El Pistolero said:
Bot. Sky_Bot said:
Finally I hope Valverde will be crushed in Fleche and LBL by anybody.
Won't happen, those races are too easy to control and nobody wants to win LBL and FW besides Valverde. Otherwise they'd race more aggressively, like in the cobbled classics.
Yeah, nobody wants to win them.

If it weren't mandatory, no teams would go to those races except Movistar, and Valverde would then be without teammates, because reasons too fantastic for me to conjure up.
 
Re: Re:

DFA123 said:
Screecher said:
DFA123 said:
One win and three podiums in 24 attempts at monuments now for Sagan. Surely he is better than that?
Easier said than done. He has a world class punch/sprint, but lacks a good engine. His team is never there when he actually needs them (bora tactics :( ). He's also one of a few who can win by both attacking and sprinting so it can be difficult to decide how he´s going to approach it.
It's the lack of podiums which surprised me most. We all know he's only won one monument. But only three podiums in the other 23 attempts is really poor for someone with such a fast finish.

I guess we should probably re-assess how prestigious a WC win is nowdays as well. Because it certainly appears a lot easier to win than a monument - which never used to be the case.
Or it is just because everybody wants to win instead of being happy when Sagan loose.
 
Re: Re:

alspacka said:
Less cohesion in national than trade teams to mark him out imo.
Good point. This is definitely a factor and makes it easier for a strong rider to win. Also I think courses might be designed with him in mind. Every host city wants a rider like Sagan winning, so their name goes down in history. No city wants their WC being forgotten as the one that Vainsteins or Astarloa won.
 
Re: Re:

tobydawq said:
El Pistolero said:
Bot. Sky_Bot said:
Finally I hope Valverde will be crushed in Fleche and LBL by anybody.
Won't happen, those races are too easy to control and nobody wants to win LBL and FW besides Valverde. Otherwise they'd race more aggressively, like in the cobbled classics.
Yeah, nobody wants to win them.

If it weren't mandatory, no teams would go to those races except Movistar, and Valverde would then be without teammates, because reasons too fantastic for me to conjure up.
El Pistolero is really testing the limits of trolling with that comment haha
 
Mar 15, 2016
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Re: Re:

DFA123 said:
alspacka said:
Less cohesion in national than trade teams to mark him out imo.
Good point. This is definitely a factor and makes it easier for a strong rider to win. Also I think courses might be designed with him in mind. Every host city wants a rider like Sagan winning, so their name goes down in history. No city wants their WC being forgotten as the one that Vainsteins or Astarloa won.
Yes, I'm pretty sure the Norwegian's wanted Sagan to win last year instead of Kristoff.
 
Jul 16, 2010
17,455
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Re: Re:

tobydawq said:
El Pistolero said:
Bot. Sky_Bot said:
Finally I hope Valverde will be crushed in Fleche and LBL by anybody.
Won't happen, those races are too easy to control and nobody wants to win LBL and FW besides Valverde. Otherwise they'd race more aggressively, like in the cobbled classics.
Yeah, nobody wants to win them.

If it weren't mandatory, no teams would go to those races except Movistar, and Valverde would then be without teammates, because reasons too fantastic for me to conjure up.
Loads of great riders already skip them and the ones that do ride aim for second or third place.

You'll see in FW, other teams will bring everything back together again before the final ascent of the Mur de Huy, like they always do. In any other race the dominant team would be forced to do all the work themselves, but not in the ardennes classics.

By far the most pathetic races on the calendar.

If the ardennes classics were ridden as aggressively as the cobbled classics, Valverde would have only won a fraction of them.
 
Oct 23, 2011
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Sagan seems to be lacking a bit this year. I mean, he's won races solo in the past but now, even when he managed to get a gap on the Paterberg, he looked very underwhelming on the flat. With regard to E3: in Sporza they claimed to have some information that Sagan was weak because his sitting area got a hurt from a crash early in the race, but the team kept it quiet (probably for sandbagging purposes). So his dramatically underwhelming E3 can be explained like that, but today he still didn't look as good as he used to.

GVA also looks a lot weaker than last year.

I'm afraid Paris-Roubaix is going to be another Quickstepfest. At least Terpstra was clearly the strongest today.
 
Jul 16, 2010
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Re: Re:

Cance > TheRest said:
tobydawq said:
El Pistolero said:
Bot. Sky_Bot said:
Finally I hope Valverde will be crushed in Fleche and LBL by anybody.
Won't happen, those races are too easy to control and nobody wants to win LBL and FW besides Valverde. Otherwise they'd race more aggressively, like in the cobbled classics.
Yeah, nobody wants to win them.

If it weren't mandatory, no teams would go to those races except Movistar, and Valverde would then be without teammates, because reasons too fantastic for me to conjure up.
El Pistolero is really testing the limits of trolling with that comment haha
Not my fault the other teams ride the way they do.

I don't get it either, so ask those teams instead.
 

Irondan

Administrator
Moderator
Re:

Maaaaaaaarten said:
Sagan seems to be lacking a bit this year. I mean, he's won races solo in the past but now, even when he managed to get a gap on the Paterberg, he looked very underwhelming on the flat.

GVA also looks a lot weaker than last year.

I'm afraid Paris-Roubaix is going to be another Quickstepfest. At least Terpstra was clearly the strongest today.
That seems to happen to riders that have newborn babies at home.
 
Re: Re:

Irondan said:
Maaaaaaaarten said:
Sagan seems to be lacking a bit this year. I mean, he's won races solo in the past but now, even when he managed to get a gap on the Paterberg, he looked very underwhelming on the flat.

GVA also looks a lot weaker than last year.

I'm afraid Paris-Roubaix is going to be another Quickstepfest. At least Terpstra was clearly the strongest today.
That seems to happen to riders that have newborn babies at home.
Sagan has less race days this year than any of his direct competitors (correct me if i'm wrong), which can certainly make a difference.
 
Re: Re:

DFA123 said:
Screecher said:
DFA123 said:
One win and three podiums in 24 attempts at monuments now for Sagan. Surely he is better than that?
Easier said than done. He has a world class punch/sprint, but lacks a good engine. His team is never there when he actually needs them (bora tactics :( ). He's also one of a few who can win by both attacking and sprinting so it can be difficult to decide how he´s going to approach it.
I guess we should probably re-assess how prestigious a WC win is nowdays as well. Because it certainly appears a lot easier to win than a monument - which never used to be the case.
Tell that to Valverde. :lol:
 
Terpstra really strong again. What a year he is having.

I'm astounded by Mads Pedersen, he's 22 years old and does this? Holy sh.t! Also really impressive by Valgren and Van Aert. Young guys everywhere. But it's two 30+ on 1 and 3, showing you need the years as well..

As for Sagan, it was well put by Sven Nys. Sagan has a great punch, that's true, but he has no solo riding skills. He cannot do what for instance Terpstra did today.

Yeah in absolute topform he did a solo once, but a much shorter one. And this is Sagan's problem, because nobody wants to sprint against him.
 
Re:

Maaaaaaaarten said:
Sagan seems to be lacking a bit this year. I mean, he's won races solo in the past but now, even when he managed to get a gap on the Paterberg, he looked very underwhelming on the flat.

GVA also looks a lot weaker than last year.

I'm afraid Paris-Roubaix is going to be another Quickstepfest. At least Terpstra was clearly the strongest today.
He is no superhuman. Of course he knows his TT is not on Terpstra level. He knew he could not chase down alone Terpstra. And he do not care about being second. It is different to ride for first monument and for being second.

I do not thing he is much worse then in 2016. Lets see in PR. That race is much more suitable for his team. (I hope). To tell the truth I was expecting much more from Burghart and Oss today.
 
Re: Re:

El Pistolero said:
tobydawq said:
El Pistolero said:
Bot. Sky_Bot said:
Finally I hope Valverde will be crushed in Fleche and LBL by anybody.
Won't happen, those races are too easy to control and nobody wants to win LBL and FW besides Valverde. Otherwise they'd race more aggressively, like in the cobbled classics.
Yeah, nobody wants to win them.

If it weren't mandatory, no teams would go to those races except Movistar, and Valverde would then be without teammates, because reasons too fantastic for me to conjure up.
Loads of great riders already skip them and the ones that do ride aim for second or third place.

You'll see in FW, other teams will bring everything back together again before the final ascent of the Mur de Huy, like they always do. In any other race the dominant team would be forced to do all the work themselves, but not in the ardennes classics.

By far the most pathetic races on the calendar.

If the ardennes classics were ridden as aggressively as the cobbled classics, Valverde would have only won a fraction of them.
2/3 (Ardennes races he has won) is a fraction. 1/1 (if you don't see Amstel as an Ardennes classic) is also a fraction.

So is 9/35 (wins from participations) and 9/24 (without Amstel).

And you have become a fraction too annoying for me to handle for now, so I will leave it at that.
 
So many people saying how obvious it was when Terpstra went that Sagan should've followed, but literally no one saying it pages ago on this forum when it happened. You post race geniuses aren't fooling anyone.

If Sagan promptly chased down Terpstra then it would've come back together and Stybar would've gone. Then when Sagan chased him, Gilbert would've gone, and the same people would be saying how naive Sagan was, trying to cover every attack.

Sagan's best hope was to form an alliance with a small group like with GVA and Vanmarcke, but they didn't have it today.

The reality is QS just have too many strong cards to play for one rider to beat them alone.
 
Re:

Pantani_lives said:
QS has four potential winners. Gilbert is their leader, but Terpstra, Stybar and Lampaert might get away on a flat section between 40 and 20 km before the finish, when the other teams won't have many helpers left to organize a pursuit.
I hate to say I told you so, but I told you so. :mad:
 
Jul 16, 2010
17,455
3
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Re: Re:

tobydawq said:
El Pistolero said:
tobydawq said:
El Pistolero said:
Bot. Sky_Bot said:
Finally I hope Valverde will be crushed in Fleche and LBL by anybody.
Won't happen, those races are too easy to control and nobody wants to win LBL and FW besides Valverde. Otherwise they'd race more aggressively, like in the cobbled classics.
Yeah, nobody wants to win them.

If it weren't mandatory, no teams would go to those races except Movistar, and Valverde would then be without teammates, because reasons too fantastic for me to conjure up.
Loads of great riders already skip them and the ones that do ride aim for second or third place.

You'll see in FW, other teams will bring everything back together again before the final ascent of the Mur de Huy, like they always do. In any other race the dominant team would be forced to do all the work themselves, but not in the ardennes classics.

By far the most pathetic races on the calendar.

If the ardennes classics were ridden as aggressively as the cobbled classics, Valverde would have only won a fraction of them.
2/3 (Ardennes races he has won) is a fraction. 1/1 (if you don't see Amstel as an Ardennes classic) is also a fraction.

So is 9/35 (wins from participations) and 9/24 (without Amstel).

And you have become a fraction too annoying for me to handle for now, so I will leave it at that.
A fraction of the races he currently won. Learn to read.

Anyone who isn't a fanboy can see the cobbled classics are far more difficult to control and predict. That's why cobbled classics will always rank higher than the Ardennes classics (AGR is not par of the ardennes).
 
Re:

The Barb said:
So many people saying how obvious it was when Terpstra went that Sagan should've followed, but literally no one saying it pages ago on this forum when it happened. You post race geniuses aren't fooling anyone.

If Sagan promptly chased down Terpstra then it would've come back together and Stybar would've gone. Then when Sagan chased him, Gilbert would've gone, and the same people would be saying how naive Sagan was, trying to cover every attack.
Very true. That said, I'm not certain Stybar or Gilbert would have been able to pull off what Terpstra did. This season, he's their guy most able to stick a long range attack like that.
 
Re: Re:

El Pistolero said:
tobydawq said:
El Pistolero said:
tobydawq said:
El Pistolero said:
Won't happen, those races are too easy to control and nobody wants to win LBL and FW besides Valverde. Otherwise they'd race more aggressively, like in the cobbled classics.
Yeah, nobody wants to win them.

If it weren't mandatory, no teams would go to those races except Movistar, and Valverde would then be without teammates, because reasons too fantastic for me to conjure up.
Loads of great riders already skip them and the ones that do ride aim for second or third place.

You'll see in FW, other teams will bring everything back together again before the final ascent of the Mur de Huy, like they always do. In any other race the dominant team would be forced to do all the work themselves, but not in the ardennes classics.

By far the most pathetic races on the calendar.

If the ardennes classics were ridden as aggressively as the cobbled classics, Valverde would have only won a fraction of them.
2/3 (Ardennes races he has won) is a fraction. 1/1 (if you don't see Amstel as an Ardennes classic) is also a fraction.

So is 9/35 (wins from participations) and 9/24 (without Amstel).

And you have become a fraction too annoying for me to handle for now, so I will leave it at that.
A fraction of the races he currently won. Learn to read.

Anyone who isn't a fanboy can see the cobbled classics are far more difficult to control and predict. That's why cobbled classics will always rank higher than the Ardennes classics (AGR is not par of the ardennes).
I took your comment literally (he would only have won a fraction of the Ardennes classics if they were ridden as aggressively as the cobbled classics - that's what you wrote). It's not my fault you can't express yourself.
 
Re:

The Barb said:
So many people saying how obvious it was when Terpstra went that Sagan should've followed, but literally no one saying it pages ago on this forum when it happened. You post race geniuses aren't fooling anyone.

If Sagan promptly chased down Terpstra then it would've come back together and Stybar would've gone. Then when Sagan chased him, Gilbert would've gone, and the same people would be saying how naive Sagan was, trying to cover every attack.

Sagan's best hope was to form an alliance with a small group like with GVA and Vanmarcke, but they didn't have it today.

The reality is QS just have too many strong cards to play for one rider to beat them alone.
exactly!! 100% this...
 
Re:

The Barb said:
So many people saying how obvious it was when Terpstra went that Sagan should've followed, but literally no one saying it pages ago on this forum when it happened. You post race geniuses aren't fooling anyone.

If Sagan promptly chased down Terpstra then it would've come back together and Stybar would've gone. Then when Sagan chased him, Gilbert would've gone, and the same people would be saying how naive Sagan was, trying to cover every attack.

Sagan's best hope was to form an alliance with a small group like with GVA and Vanmarcke, but they didn't have it today.

The reality is QS just have too many strong cards to play for one rider to beat them alone.
Perfect post. Before the race there was consensus here that QS will win unless the other favorites make allience and help each other to mark the QS riders.

I am pretty sure that without Sagan in the race the race would be much better and probably with different winner.
 

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