2019 Giro d'Italia, Stage 1: Bologna - San Luca ITT 8km

[Laplaz]

Here we go!

Stage 1: Bologna - Madonna di San Luca 8 km ITT

Saturday, May 11th

START TIME: 16.50 CEST

FINISH TIME: ~20.00 CEST

Technical Overview:
The 2019 Giro d'Italia starts in Bologna, with a very interesting prologue. The last time the Giro started here was 25 years ago, and in 1994 the first stage was in fact a split stage, with one short road stage around the city and one flat prologue after it. Split stages are not allowed in GTs anymore, so this year we get only the prologue part. The route of it, however, is very different from the 1994 one, and far from being flat. Starting from the very centre of Bologna, the riders will go through straight and wide roads towards the hills just outside town. At 2.1 km to go, a sharp turn to the right will bring them into one of the most iconic hills in all Italian cycling. The road to the sanctuary of Madonna di San Luca (GPM3, 2.1 km at 9.7%) is famous as the highlight of the Giro dell'Emilia, as well as a common feature in the Giro d'italia itself (being also the finish of the last Giro stage that was held in Bologna, in 2009). The climb is easily recognizable by the long colonnade intertwining with the road, that leads pilgrims up the hill all the way to the sanctuary on top. For those of you who are new to cycling and never watched the Giro dell'Emilia, you will notice the climb is much harder than the average numbers suggest. It is very irregular and hides some really hard ramps, with a 16% max gradient around halfway. Pacing here will be a key issue and will likely determine the winner.

The Climbs:
Madonna di San Luca, GPM3, 2.1 km at 9.7%
The mythical final climb of the Giro dell'Emilia. Used multiple times in the Giro too, the last time they raced here we saw a future GT dominator doing zig-zags...

What to expect:
Really tough to call. We are talking about a ~12' effort split almost exactly between a flat and an uphill section. As I said, pacing in the climb will be crucial, so I think TT specialists (among the GC riders) will have an edge there. All the GC candidates will likely fill the top spots, as this stage is perfect for them. However, who comes short of form thinking about the second half of the Giro will likely lose a lot of time. Almost surely, the first Maglia Rosa of this Giro will be a serious pretender to the final victory.

The famous colonnade of Madonna di San Luca

 

[Nirvana]

I wonder if we are going to see some OTL already on the first day, Marezcko probably is the biggest candidate since there aren't Pelucchi and Guardini this year, in case of hard racing from the start he risks a lot also in Terracina with the uphill start considering that CCC won't organize a TTT to save him like Wilier last year, otherwise San Marino will be the end for him, I don't thin he can survive there.

 

[SafeBet]

Roglic should definately win this.
Dumoulin, Yates and Nibali could all be in the top5, with someone like Jungels or Ion Izagirre rounding it up.

Outsiders: Cattaneo, Kangert, Tao, Mollema, Ulissi.

 

[Climbing]

I feel like I underestimated the opening stage, this might already cause somewhat serious gaps between GC riders, especially if pretenders came in undercooked thinking about the second half of the Giro.
Roglic should be the first pick, Dumo and Yates very close possibly, Nibali there about (maybe Landa as well), I expect the top 10 filled with GC riders, but not quite sure cause it’s a bit strange of an opening tbh.
Can’t wait for the Giro to start!

 

[Laplaz]

(I'm only listing my Top 6 GC riders)
Roglic
+10 Dumoulin
+15 Yates
+ 18 Nibali
+ 22 Landa
+ 25 MAL

My dark horses (for a Top 5, the win should be out of reach):
Conti, Formolo, Carthy

 

[Lequack]

Yeah 2k @ 10% is pretty crazy for a TT.

 

[Climbing]

Most importantly, will they change bike considering there is a sharp curve just before the start of the climb? Is it worth it? Apparently isn't clear cut...

 

[Red Rick]

Could easily have 30s+ gaps here already

0% chance Dumoulin and Roglic don't get top 2 without crashing

 

[King Boonen]

This is the kind of prologue I approve of.

 

[Laplaz]

Re:

Most importantly, will they change bike considering there is a sharp curve just before the start of the climb? Is it worth it? Apparently isn't clear cut...

Good question. Due to the sharp corner they wouldn't lose much, let's say 5-6 seconds. So it could pay off.

 

[DJ Sprtsch]

The climb compares well to the one they did in the last stage of Itzulia. That one was 2.2km, 9.5%.
Couldn't figure out if changing bikes paid off or not?

 

[Max Rockatansky]

https://www.strava.com/segments/828752

Here are some official climbing times from Strava for a part of the climb. Does anybody have times for those 2.1k?

Roglic will start his journey to equalize Bugnos record of taking the Maglia Rosa on stage 1 in Bari and wearing it every day until the last day in Milano.

 

[King Boonen]

I'm not sure the course is long enough for a bike change is it? I suppose the hairpin turn into the climb means they're basically stopping anyway so they wouldn't lose huge time swapping. Maybe the climbers will ride road bike with clip-ons?

 

[Eshnar]

https://www.strava.com/segments/828752

Here are some official climbing times from Strava for a part of the climb. Does anybody have times for those 2.1k?

Roglic will start his journey to equalize Bugnos record of taking the Maglia Rosa on stage 1 in Bari and wearing it every day until the last day in Milano.

I don't have times, but it looks like the 300m missing are the flattish ones at the top, so I would add 20-25s to that.

 

[Robert5091]

Weather forecast is for showers over the weekend.

 

[Escarabajo]

I am still puzzled whether they will do a bike change. Like some other people have mentioned the sharp corner might motivate some riders for a change.

I always wonder about why not used the bikes that Contador used for these type of stages which is like a hybrid. It is a bit lower with the bar extensions but still has the brake supports where you need them for the climb. How much time would you lose in the flat by using one of those?

Over the years I have questioned some of the bike changes that have happened. I guess the bottom line is if you are fit or not. Some riders put too much faith that the bike will do the job for them.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Will Mareczko finish otl?

 

[Singer01]

Changing bikes should be against the rules, looks dumb.

 

[King Boonen]

Re:

Changing bikes should be against the rules, looks dumb.

I feel the same about carbon and gears.

 

[Climbing]

I guess it's either bike change or no disc wheel?
Can't imagine other options, though I'm no big expert.

 

[Googolplex]

I think the organisers may be a bit optimistic by giving a 44 km/h timetable.

 

[Anderis]

Does a bike change makes sense for such a short ITT?

 

[JosephK]

Re:

(I'm only listing my Top 6 GC riders)
Roglic
+10 Dumoulin
+15 Yates
+ 18 Nibali
+ 22 Landa
+ 25 MAL

My dark horses (for a Top 5, the win should be out of reach):
Conti, Formolo, Carthy

I think these are good picks sequentially. Another possibility:

1: Geoghegan Hart
2: Sivakov + 5
3: Roglic + 1:30
4: Dumoulin + 1:40
5: Yates + 1:45
6: Nibali + 1:48

:lol:

 

[King Boonen]

Re:

Does a bike change makes sense for such a short ITT?

That's what we're wondering. It very much depends on the rider and their view of the course.

 

[Son of Amsterhammer]

If the decision is close, I would assume most wouldn’t do it, because of the x-factor of something going wrong during the change.