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2019 Giro d'Italia Stage 16: Lovere - Ponte di Legno 194 km

The stage changed, so I couldn't use Eshar's preview unfortunately.






Movistar will try to take the extra time that Carapaz needs against Roglic. Will they purely treat Carapaz as their leader or will Landa attack himself? The best thing for them would be to reach the top of the Mortirolo together, with Roglic dropped. That could be achieved by letting Landa attack first, e.g. at the foot of the Mortirolo; then letting Carapaz jump towards him before the top.

Nibali will try to follow on the Mortirolo and attack on the wet and dangerous descent. It's a big question how Roglic will perform. Will he crack or not?
Pity about Gavia, but with the weather, this stage will be properly hard. I'm hoping for racing from the get-go, with teams trying to position helpers in the breakaway and then attacks from km 4 on Mortirolo. Unfortunately, there'll be helicopter problems, and we will only see the finish line the last 2 hours.
Wow, looking at the profile it might not have the high altitude Gavia but still looks super tough.

Probably Nibali, Landa or Carapaz but it would be great to see Roglic bounce back. But this seems very unlikely now seeing how he was riding prior to his mechanical and fall yesterday but also with the Mortirolo so close to the finish. Movistar will race the Mortirolo hard to try to destroy Roglic before the final climb. But it is stage 16 and week 3 in the mountains and that is shark territory. So Nibali vs Carapaz but Landa is the wildcard.
Re: Re:

Eshnar said:
Red Rick said:
Eshnar said:
topcat said:
Eshnar, are you out there? What's your take on the new stage profile?
It sucks. Especially considering how much time I spent on the preview :(

But it's still a Mortirolo stage and not even one of the softest ones, so I guess in general terms it's okay. :eek:
What Mortirolo stage was softer?
2010, for example.
Even 2015 was hardly more difficult. This stage is 17 kilometers longer, has three climbs before Aprica while 2015 had two, that said those two climbs were a bit harder than the climbs in this stage and the finish at Aprica is quite a bit harder than the Ponte di Legno finish this time. I'd actually argue that finishing climb tips it in favor of 2015 but up to the Mortirolo they are pretty much even.

Koronin said:
I can see Movistar allowing Landa to attack and forcing the other contenders to try to bring him back, that way giving Carapaz a free ride.

There's no such thing as free ride on the slopes of Mortirolo, it's basically every man for himself. I would go with Landa forcing the pace all the way, until Roglic hopefully drops. If not, then Carapaz needs to try himself.