2019 Giro d'Italia Stage 16: Lovere - Ponte di Legno 194 km

[Laplaz]

The stage changed, so I couldn't use Eshar's preview unfortunately.

 

[Red Rick]

Vincenzo

Nibali

Will

Win

This

Bike

Race

 

[Escarabajo]

So this is what we get instead of Gavia.

Profile of the first 2 climbs below.

Presolana:
Eliminated. Already in OP

Salven:
Eliminated. Already in OP

 

[Laplaz]

Weather should be really really bad, with rain the whole day. The descents could be more important than the climbs (although you can't hide on Mortirolo).

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: 2019 Giro d'Italia Stage 16: Lovere - Ponte di Legno 194

This is still a really tough stage and will be even thougher in bad weather. I think Nibali might do really well here. He or carapaz ftw, Roglic will lose time to both

 

[topcat]

Eshnar, are you out there? What's your take on the new stage profile?

 

[Moviefan1203]

Dombrowski to win the stage.

 

[Eshnar]

Re:

Eshnar, are you out there? What's your take on the new stage profile?

It sucks. Especially considering how much time I spent on the preview

But it's still a Mortirolo stage and not even one of the softest ones, so I guess in general terms it's okay.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Eshnar, are you out there? What's your take on the new stage profile?

It sucks. Especially considering how much time I spent on the preview

But it's still a Mortirolo stage and not even one of the softest ones, so I guess in general terms it's okay.

What Mortirolo stage was softer?

 

[Pantani_lives]

Movistar will try to take the extra time that Carapaz needs against Roglic. Will they purely treat Carapaz as their leader or will Landa attack himself? The best thing for them would be to reach the top of the Mortirolo together, with Roglic dropped. That could be achieved by letting Landa attack first, e.g. at the foot of the Mortirolo; then letting Carapaz jump towards him before the top.

Nibali will try to follow on the Mortirolo and attack on the wet and dangerous descent. It's a big question how Roglic will perform. Will he crack or not?

 

[Jagartrott]

Pity about Gavia, but with the weather, this stage will be properly hard. I'm hoping for racing from the get-go, with teams trying to position helpers in the breakaway and then attacks from km 4 on Mortirolo. Unfortunately, there'll be helicopter problems, and we will only see the finish line the last 2 hours.

 

[Eshnar]

Re: Re:

Eshnar, are you out there? What's your take on the new stage profile?

It sucks. Especially considering how much time I spent on the preview

But it's still a Mortirolo stage and not even one of the softest ones, so I guess in general terms it's okay.

What Mortirolo stage was softer?

2010, for example.

 

[Cookster15]

Wow, looking at the profile it might not have the high altitude Gavia but still looks super tough.

Probably Nibali, Landa or Carapaz but it would be great to see Roglic bounce back. But this seems very unlikely now seeing how he was riding prior to his mechanical and fall yesterday but also with the Mortirolo so close to the finish. Movistar will race the Mortirolo hard to try to destroy Roglic before the final climb. But it is stage 16 and week 3 in the mountains and that is shark territory. So Nibali vs Carapaz but Landa is the wildcard.

 

[Lequack]

Definitely Carapaz has an advantage on a more steeper climb like Mortirolo. The steeper the climb the more it's difficult for Roglic or even Nibali against the lightweight Colombians.

 

[Koronin]

I can see Movistar allowing Landa to attack and forcing the other contenders to try to bring him back, that way giving Carapaz a free ride.

 

[Sestriere]

In 2017 I couldn't watch the Double-Stelvio stage, last year I couldn't watch the Finestre stage and this year it will be the same with Mortirolo. Seems like I have a tendency to miss Giro queen stages...

 

[RedheadDane]

Re:

In 2017 I couldn't watch the Double-Stelvio stage, last year I couldn't watch the Finestre stage and this year it will be the same with Mortirolo. Seems like I have a tendency to miss Giro queen stages...

One year there might be a stage over Sestriere.
And you'll miss that one too.

 

[klintE]

I think it could be smart from Movistar/Carapaz to ride this defensive.
Roglic can be dealt later (f.e next day)
Yates will try to kill himself attacking from Aprica.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

In 2017 I couldn't watch the Double-Stelvio stage, last year I couldn't watch the Finestre stage and this year it will be the same with Mortirolo. Seems like I have a tendency to miss Giro queen stages...

One year there might be a stage over Sestriere.
And you'll miss that one too.

You mean like the Finestre stage last year...

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

Eshnar, are you out there? What's your take on the new stage profile?

It sucks. Especially considering how much time I spent on the preview

But it's still a Mortirolo stage and not even one of the softest ones, so I guess in general terms it's okay.

What Mortirolo stage was softer?

2010, for example.

Even 2015 was hardly more difficult. This stage is 17 kilometers longer, has three climbs before Aprica while 2015 had two, that said those two climbs were a bit harder than the climbs in this stage and the finish at Aprica is quite a bit harder than the Ponte di Legno finish this time. I'd actually argue that finishing climb tips it in favor of 2015 but up to the Mortirolo they are pretty much even.

 

[Laplaz]

I'm curious to see what Astana and MS will do. They HAVE to try something serious here.

 

[Red Rick]

What's the starting time?

 

[Blanco]

Re:

I think it could be smart from Movistar/Carapaz to ride this defensive.
Roglic can be dealt later (f.e next day)
Yates will try to kill himself attacking from Aprica.

It would not be smart. Mortirolo is perfect to deal with Roglic.

 

[Blanco]

Re:

I can see Movistar allowing Landa to attack and forcing the other contenders to try to bring him back, that way giving Carapaz a free ride.

There's no such thing as free ride on the slopes of Mortirolo, it's basically every man for himself. I would go with Landa forcing the pace all the way, until Roglic hopefully drops. If not, then Carapaz needs to try himself.

 

[Lequack]

Roglic should learn from Dumoulin on how to tempo and not blow up. Dumoulin is incredibly hard to get rid of, he might get dropped but he seems to never go into the red and just calmly plows on.