2019 Giro d'Italia Stage 16: Lovere - Ponte di Legno 194 km

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Chapeau Ciccone! He's come good after all the promise. Trek must be happy. How big the gaps would have been with the Gavia is a good question. Roglic must have been glad it was n't raced.

So my hunch of the EF guys looking good proved right and Roglic lost time but how it goes now before the TT is the question. Carapaz seems to need more time on Nibali and Nibali needs more time on Roglic. Landa is only just over 1 minute behind Roglic so one more bad day and he's off the podium. All to play for!
 
Roglic is just not quite at the very top level as a climber. The Mortirolo in cold rain and fog must be one of the ultimate tests, and Carapaz, Lopez, Landa and Nibali were pretty much equal. I was really pulling for Nibali to get a decisive gap but the way the stage was designed meant that a solo move was unlikely to stick. I would have loved to see the Gavia, too, but I'm afraid we might have lost a few riders to hypothermia. Amazed how many didn't stop to put on more gear.
 
For Landa to get a podium spot he likely needs to find 2 to 3 minutes over Roglic before the final ITT. I think the time Carapaz has on Nibali may be enough to win it. I do think if we go to the ITT with the gap between Carapaz and Nibali as it is the final result between them will end up very close.
 
Re: Re:

Cance > TheRest said:
Oude Geuze said:
There’s no doubt he would still be comfortably in pink with a strong team. However, Carapaz would probably now be quite close and would pose a real threat. On the other hand, his level of fatigue would also be lower, so it’s hard to say. Not at all certain he would win even with a strong team, but today is the only day he would have lost significant time to main contenders even with help. Although not as much. Nibali seems to be the favorite to win now however.
Looking at the previous mountain stages I honestly don't see where a better team would have made a huge difference for Roglic against Carapaz.

1) He would probably also have lost a decent amount of time to Carapaz on the climb to Lago Serru, as team mates are less useful on a climb that steep. The game with Nibali makes it impossible to say this, but given that he and Nibali distanced Sivakov, Formolo and MAL on their way to the top, it's probably safe to say that they did not play games all the way.
2) Maybe team support could have had a bigger impact on the stage to Courmayeur, but even there we saw how Carapaz basically created the huge gap against a super strong Caruso who was setting the pace behind. On the way to Courmayeur, it is highly doubtful that one more rider to chase down Carapaz in the form of a Jumbo domestique would have made a big impact. So I doubt that a teammate for Roglic there would have made a significant difference to the time Carapaz gained. It is quite clear that he did not have the legs to go with Carapaz on Colle San Carlo.
3) Then we have the Como stage, where obviously better support from the team car would have been appreciated. He was not far off from holding on to Nibali and Carapaz as they went on Civiglio, but I still have my reservations on whether he'd have lost time there anyway. Maybe not 40 seconds, but possibly 20 seconds.

Overall, it would probably take a 2017 level SKY train to to save a significant amount of the time lost against Carapaz. Yes, Jumbo Visma have been terrible (one might wonder why they brought such a **** team in the first place), but I don't find that the addition of Gesink or De Plus would have changed a whole lot for Roglic.

Maybe they wouldn't but there is one Jumbo rider who would have
 
Re:

Koronin said:
For Landa to get a podium spot he likely needs to find 2 to 3 minutes over Roglic before the final ITT. I think the time Carapaz has on Nibali may be enough to win it. I do think if we go to the ITT with the gap between Carapaz and Nibali as it is the final result between them will end up very close.
Assuming no one's form falls off a cliff before then, which is possible, I don't think the gaps will be quite that big in the TT. I think Roglic will gain between 20 secs to 1:10 on Nibali and Carapaz and a minute to 1:45 on Landa. I could see Nibali gaining at most 20-40 seconds on Carapaz so if things stay the way they are now, I don't think there's any way he could even come close. I believe Nibs will find some time before then, however.
 
Re: Re:

jaylew said:
Koronin said:
For Landa to get a podium spot he likely needs to find 2 to 3 minutes over Roglic before the final ITT. I think the time Carapaz has on Nibali may be enough to win it. I do think if we go to the ITT with the gap between Carapaz and Nibali as it is the final result between them will end up very close.
Assuming no one's form falls off a cliff before then, which is possible, I don't think the gaps will be quite that big in the TT. I think Roglic will gain between 20 secs to 1:10 on Nibali and Carapaz and a minute to 1:45 on Landa. I could see Nibali gaining at most 20-40 seconds on Carapaz so if things stay the way they are now, I don't think there's any way he could even come close. I believe Nibs will find some time before then, however.
I expect Nibali to find some time to close the gap to Carapaz somewhere before the final ITT. As for Landa/Roglic I still think he needs to find at least 2 minutes as he's currently a little over a minute behind Roglic.
Now you're right about the form falling off a cliff as we've seen it before, but I wouldn't think that would happen to Nibali (way too experience) or Landa (also enough experience). I think last year's Giro shows it's unlikely for Carapaz, but he was racing differently last year, so this is a new situation for him.
 
Re: Re:

jaylew said:
Carols said:
Escarabajo said:
VWeekend21 said:
Congrats to Ciccone!

Motorpacing today was just pathetic.The literllay stole the Giro today from Roglič.
Come on. Give us a break. He lost it on his own.
Nah his team and even his team car all let him down :(
C'mon, Carol. Don't make excuses for him. He's been great but his legs letting him down is what ultimately is going to cost him the win. Not much his team would have been able to do today, anyway. Besides, he had a team today - they were even in the same colors.
He definitely lost time on his own but when the commissaire almost runs down the camera bike to stop it motorpacing you can't say it is a non issue.
 
Apr 3, 2016
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Re: Re:

Cance > TheRest said:
Oude Geuze said:
There’s no doubt he would still be comfortably in pink with a strong team. However, Carapaz would probably now be quite close and would pose a real threat. On the other hand, his level of fatigue would also be lower, so it’s hard to say. Not at all certain he would win even with a strong team, but today is the only day he would have lost significant time to main contenders even with help. Although not as much. Nibali seems to be the favorite to win now however.
Looking at the previous mountain stages I honestly don't see where a better team would have made a huge difference for Roglic against Carapaz.

1) He would probably also have lost a decent amount of time to Carapaz on the climb to Lago Serru, as team mates are less useful on a climb that steep. The game with Nibali makes it impossible to say this, but given that he and Nibali distanced Sivakov, Formolo and MAL on their way to the top, it's probably safe to say that they did not play games all the way.
2) Maybe team support could have had a bigger impact on the stage to Courmayeur, but even there we saw how Carapaz basically created the huge gap against a super strong Caruso who was setting the pace behind. On the way to Courmayeur, it is highly doubtful that one more rider to chase down Carapaz in the form of a Jumbo domestique would have made a big impact. So I doubt that a teammate for Roglic there would have made a significant difference to the time Carapaz gained. It is quite clear that he did not have the legs to go with Carapaz on Colle San Carlo.
3) Then we have the Como stage, where obviously better support from the team car would have been appreciated. He was not far off from holding on to Nibali and Carapaz as they went on Civiglio, but I still have my reservations on whether he'd have lost time there anyway. Maybe not 40 seconds, but possibly 20 seconds.

Overall, it would probably take a 2017 level SKY train to to save a significant amount of the time lost against Carapaz. Yes, Jumbo Visma have been terrible (one might wonder why they brought such a **** team in the first place), but I don't find that the addition of Gesink or De Plus would have changed a whole lot for Roglic.
When I said a strong team, I did not mean jumbo Visma with the addition of de plus or gesink. I’m thinking more like Movistar/Ineos strength. If you mean Roglic could not have gotten back on the Como stage with help pacing after bike change and maybe even over the top if he would have needed it, but still loose 20 seconds after being only 7 seconds off the back with no support, we are watching different sports.
 

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