2019 Giro d'Italia Stage 16: Lovere - Ponte di Legno 194 km

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movingtarget said:
yaco said:
LaFlorecita said:
Interesting to see Lucas Hamilton on Yates' wheel. Strange tactics.
Reckon Hamilton was stronger than Yates on the climb - Hamilton has been super impressive.
Hamilton is a very good domestique as is Jack Haig. Both have a future by the looks of things.
Reckon Hamilton is showing more than Haig in his second year - Time will tell.
 
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Red Rick said:
Nibali keeps tactically blundering
Lots of work, for no gain at least on Movistar. Roglic either cracks completely now or hangs in there enough to be a podium chance re the TT. I think it could go either way at the moment depending how aggressive the racing is. Bad today doesn't always mean bad tomorrow as Yates has already shown.
 
I wonder if Roglas two crashes have played a role in his loss of form? Maybe. If he can somehow hold on to these gaps until the TT, it still might be close, but he can’t lose anymore, which will be tough looking at the way things are going. Nibs must be feeling good now though. Things are starting to line up for him.
 
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What race are you watching? He's had Little Support throughout. He's no Contador that can win even without a team, never mind not even a team car when you need one. I sure hope he podiums. Granted he may have come in too hot but with even De Plus around I think it would have been a different trip through the mountains for him.
De Plus may have helped some, but I don't know how much. He's matured this season and had been healthier, but he was pretty much worthless as help for Enric at the Vuelta last year. Rode well on the first climbing stage then was nowhere until he finally abandoned.
 
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jaylew said:
Carols said:
What race are you watching? He's had Little Support throughout. He's no Contador that can win even without a team, never mind not even a team car when you need one. I sure hope he podiums. Granted he may have come in too hot but with even De Plus around I think it would have been a different trip through the mountains for him.
I'm watching the race where he just lost 2:00 on the last two stages to the best climbers in the race because he couldn't keep the pace. I agree that his support has been lacking but the idea that he would have won with a better team doesn't make sense. At some point (in the high mountains) it's about having the legs.
Not denying there are better climbers than him in this race. Everybody sees that. But his support on the climbs is nonexistent. If he had a Pozzovivo and Caruso, nevermind Landa and Amador, he'd still be comfortably in pink. It was almost funny (well it's not, I know these guys suffer but you get the point) when Bouwman was caught by the Roglic group, the moto reporter on RAI said he was pushing the pace not even for 30m...lol Even Antonio Nibali stayed with his brother for almost a kilometer.
 
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johnymax said:
jaylew said:
Carols said:
What race are you watching? He's had Little Support throughout. He's no Contador that can win even without a team, never mind not even a team car when you need one. I sure hope he podiums. Granted he may have come in too hot but with even De Plus around I think it would have been a different trip through the mountains for him.
I'm watching the race where he just lost 2:00 on the last two stages to the best climbers in the race because he couldn't keep the pace. I agree that his support has been lacking but the idea that he would have won with a better team doesn't make sense. At some point (in the high mountains) it's about having the legs.
Not denying there are better climbers than him in this race. Everybody sees that. But his support on the climbs is nonexistent. If he had a Pozzovivo and Caruso, nevermind Landa and Amador, he'd still be comfortably in pink. It was almost funny (well it's not, I know these guys suffer but you get the point) when Bouwman was caught by the Roglic group, the moto reporter on RAI said he was pushing the pace not even for 30m...lol Even Antonio Nibali stayed with his brother for almost a kilometer.
I still think Carapaz would have lead the race, even if Roglic had better team support.

Today was a day of truth, where he lost almost 2 minutes on Mortirolo with or without team support.
 
Apr 3, 2016
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There’s no doubt he would still be comfortably in pink with a strong team. However, Carapaz would probably now be quite close and would pose a real threat. On the other hand, his level of fatigue would also be lower, so it’s hard to say. Not at all certain he would win even with a strong team, but today is the only day he would have lost significant time to main contenders even with help. Although not as much. Nibali seems to be the favorite to win now however.
 
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Oude Geuze said:
There’s no doubt he would still be comfortably in pink with a strong team. However, Carapaz would probably now be quite close and would pose a real threat. On the other hand, his level of fatigue would also be lower, so it’s hard to say. Not at all certain he would win even with a strong team, but today is the only day he would have lost significant time to main contenders even with help. Although not as much. Nibali seems to be the favorite to win now however.
There's a lot of doubt about that statement. I'd say it's false.
 
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perico said:
What race are you watching? He's had Little Support throughout. He's no Contador that can win even without a team, never mind not even a team car when you need one. I sure hope he podiums. Granted he may have come in too hot but with even De Plus around I think it would have been a different trip through the mountains for him.
De Plus may have helped some, but I don't know how much. He's matured this season and had been healthier, but he was pretty much worthless as help for Enric at the Vuelta last year. Rode well on the first climbing stage then was nowhere until he finally abandoned.
De Plus went through a long recovery due to a crash in Lombardia first and getting hit by a truck during recovery after that. The Vuelta was only a few months after his comeback.
 
With Abarcá holding the maglia rosa and an Astana GC contender up the road, with Nibali and some bad weather, I can count myself slightly disappointed that they caught Nibali before the top, because otherwise the parallels with 2010 would have dictated some godlike descending. Arroyo's Mortirolo is the kind of thing most people can dine out on for life, unless they're Paolo Savoldelli and that kind of thing is just routine.
 
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Oude Geuze said:
There’s no doubt he would still be comfortably in pink with a strong team. However, Carapaz would probably now be quite close and would pose a real threat. On the other hand, his level of fatigue would also be lower, so it’s hard to say. Not at all certain he would win even with a strong team, but today is the only day he would have lost significant time to main contenders even with help. Although not as much. Nibali seems to be the favorite to win now however.
There's plenty of doubt. Maybe not for you, but for others there is all the doubt in the world.
 
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Valv.Piti said:
Hmm, one of the more disappointing Mortirolo stages, only after 2008. I felt like it really needed Gavia, it was simply too easy beforehand and the gaps never really got big like we are used to seeing.
Very fast climbing time this year. In fact, only 7s slower than in 2006. In 2006 they were 2 full minutes faster on San Carlo. San Carlo produced bigger gaps than the Mortirolo
 
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Oude Geuze said:
There’s no doubt he would still be comfortably in pink with a strong team. However, Carapaz would probably now be quite close and would pose a real threat. On the other hand, his level of fatigue would also be lower, so it’s hard to say. Not at all certain he would win even with a strong team, but today is the only day he would have lost significant time to main contenders even with help. Although not as much. Nibali seems to be the favorite to win now however.
Looking at the previous mountain stages I honestly don't see where a better team would have made a huge difference for Roglic against Carapaz.

1) He would probably also have lost a decent amount of time to Carapaz on the climb to Lago Serru, as team mates are less useful on a climb that steep. The game with Nibali makes it impossible to say this, but given that he and Nibali distanced Sivakov, Formolo and MAL on their way to the top, it's probably safe to say that they did not play games all the way.
2) Maybe team support could have had a bigger impact on the stage to Courmayeur, but even there we saw how Carapaz basically created the huge gap against a super strong Caruso who was setting the pace behind. On the way to Courmayeur, it is highly doubtful that one more rider to chase down Carapaz in the form of a Jumbo domestique would have made a big impact. So I doubt that a teammate for Roglic there would have made a significant difference to the time Carapaz gained. It is quite clear that he did not have the legs to go with Carapaz on Colle San Carlo.
3) Then we have the Como stage, where obviously better support from the team car would have been appreciated. He was not far off from holding on to Nibali and Carapaz as they went on Civiglio, but I still have my reservations on whether he'd have lost time there anyway. Maybe not 40 seconds, but possibly 20 seconds.

Overall, it would probably take a 2017 level SKY train to to save a significant amount of the time lost against Carapaz. Yes, Jumbo Visma have been terrible (one might wonder why they brought such a **** team in the first place), but I don't find that the addition of Gesink or De Plus would have changed a whole lot for Roglic.
 

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