2019 Giro d'Italia, stage 4: Orbetello - Frascati 235km

[Laplaz]

~6 hours on bike + rain. Will be a very long and stressful day.

My picks: Ulissi and Vendrame

Stage 4: Orbetello - Frascati 235 km

Tuesday, May 14th

START TIME: 11.15 CEST

FINISH TIME: ~17.15 CEST

Technical Overview:
The fourth stage of this Giro brings the riders further south, in a long stage on rolling terrain around Rome. There is only one categorized climb, Manciano (GPM4, 8 km at 3.7%), which is also the first difficulty of the day. It's not a particularly difficult day, but the route is full of false flats and ups and downs. For example, the road after Manciano heads slightly uphill all the way to Poggio Evangelista, an uncategorized climb of 13 km at 3% (with very irregular sections... the average here is misleading). After this, the riders will slowly descend and then slowly climb again, to another uphill drag of 7 km at 3% (again, hiding some good ramps). This kind of roads continue throughout the whole stage, with two more uncategorized climbs, Campagnano di Roma (4 km at 3.5%) and Monterotondo (1.5 km at 6.5%). After these climbs and the last intermediate sprint in Mentana, a short section of flat roads lead to another ascending false flat and then rough terrain all the way to the finishing line in Frascati. This will in fact be an uphill sprint, on a short climb of 2 km at 4.4%, with a maximum gradient of 7% at the beginning and then easing off to a steady 4% at the end.

The Climbs:
Manciano, GPM4, 8 km at 3.7%
No profile again. Does not seem to be much anyway.

What to expect:
An uphill sprint with a somewhat reduced peloton, with maybe a few proper sprinters still in the mix, but with an Ardennes kind of rider having the upper edge. The break of the day also has huge chances to reach the end, if the peloton is not in the mood. This is a very long and tough day, so there might be no teams willing to commit to the chase.

Castel Gandolfo and Lake Albano, a few km from Frascati

 

[yaco]

Uphill finish suits Ewan.

 

[Mayomaniac]

First (real) Italian win or a win for an Italian pct team (Lobato).

 

[Red Rick]

Roglic might get boni's?

 

[Lequack]

I don't think it's hard enough to shed most of the sprinters, so I'l go with Ewan or maybe even Gaviria again.

 

[Pantani_lives]

This isn't steep. I think Ewan and maybe Gaviria can handle this. It would have been a typical finish for Zabel or Freire (or the absent Sagan or Matthews).

 

[Valv.Piti]

Hoped this stage in particular would be significantly harder, it almost looks like the sprinters cant contest.

Rogla win.

 

[Rollthedice]

235 km, another opportunity for Sho, the Lone Rider.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Madouas or Roglic FTW!

 

[search]

Re:

I don't think it's hard enough to shed most of the sprinters, so I'l go with Ewan or maybe even Gaviria again.

almost 3000m of climbing over the day and 235k distance should not be undererstimated though

 

[Ciddaman]

It's too easy for Roglic. The steepest part of the hill is the first one and the bunch will reach it at 60 km/h...
I think that is a gold chance for Nizzolo

 

[Mayomaniac]

This kind of stage has Ulissi written all over it, his teammate Conti also has a decent chance.
The final is probably too easy for Roglic, other favourites would be Madouas, Vendrame, Canola, Lobato and Gibbons. Battaglin crashed today, so he's probably out of the picture.

 

[Amazinmets87]

Any chance for GC splits?

 

[Laplaz]

Re:

Any chance for GC splits?

Rain all day probably, so everyone will be super nervous. GC splits? Maybe when someone crashes.

 

[search]

it's classified as a category b) full points stage, but for some reason RCS doesn't seem to make use of the new UCI rules for stages "expected to finish in a bunch sprint". Which means gaps will be measured on from 1s difference between the riders, not 3 - so yeah, there should be some gaps

 

[Lequack]

 

[Stingishere1]

Good chance for PCT. I don't know if is quite to drop all the sprinters; for me Demaré can take the first win, but there are a lot of outsiders: this is perfect for Lobato. I expect a great performance by Moschetti, Vendrame also and Cimolai.

 

[Robert5091]

Rain, 235km, up and down all day - sounds like a spring race in Belgium. Would not be surprised if some riders have ear-marked this stage to get in the break. Could be the day that Jumbo give up the leader's jersey.

Ewan seems a good bet if they chase down the break. If not, and the rain causes havoc anything could happen. Skinny little climbers might well lose some time and would not be surprised to see Bahrain Merida at the front of the peloton in the later part.

Edit - see the Breakaway King De Gendt is already more then 13 minutes down, so he's saving himself for something.

 

[Eyeballs Out]

Battaglin would have been favourite for this in my book before today's crash. Katusha must be wondering what else can go wrong

 

[Red Rick]

Finish seems a lot like stage 8 of last year's Vuelta, where Valverde beat Sagan for the win and there were no time gaps in the main peloton. Overall the stage should be harder this time.

 

[sir fly]

I think the most important thing these days is keeping dry and eating well.
There's not enough fat on them to keep them healthy if they aren't taking care of themselves.

 

[Sestriere]

Let's just hope for a serious break today..

 

[Lequack]

No rain forecast today for either start or finish. Should be cloudy @ 15C.

 

[The Barb]

I don't see the breakaway getting it. It's too early in the race for the peloton to be tired and there will be enough teams fancying their chances that the break won't be given much leeway.

Jay McCarthy doesn't win as often as his skill set would suggest he should, but this finish should be perfect for him and his form is very strong (in Stage 1 he was well down overall but high up ranking for the climb) not to mention Bora flying at the moment.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Re:

Edit - see the Breakaway King De Gendt is already more then 13 minutes down, so he's saving himself for something.

The Breakaway King has been transformed into a working horse for Caleb Ewan.