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2019 Milano-Torino: 179 km

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SafeBet

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Rollthedice said:
He was very impressive last year on the Sormano descent and that's about all.
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That's really underselling his effort. He pulled a lot on the flat after bridging to Nibali, Pinot and Roglic and was still good enough on the final two climbs to finish with the likes of Valverde and Woods.

He was 12th, 1'31" behind Pinot.
Roglic finished more than 3 minutes behind Pinot after being in the same break.

I'm genuinely convinced he was the third strongest rider on that day.
 
Blanco

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SafeBet said:
That's really underselling his effort. He pulled a lot on the flat after bridging to Nibali, Pinot and Roglic and was still good enough on the final two climbs to finish with the likes of Valverde and Woods.

He was 12th, 1'31" behind Pinot.
Roglic finished more than 3 minutes behind Pinot after being in the same break.

I'm genuinely convinced he was the third strongest rider on that day.
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No, he was not. Only descent was impressive, uphill he was average, or even below. He was not good on Sormano (not in the first 10), he was not good at Civiglio, and he was not good on San Fermo.
Dan Martin was probably the 3rd strongest guy, Rafal Majka was strong too. Roglic was probably more impressive too despite finishing 1.5 min behind.
 
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Blanco said:
No, he was not. Only descent was impressive, uphill he was average, or even below. He was not good on Sormano (not in the first 10), he was not good at Civiglio, and he was not good on San Fermo.
Dan Martin was probably the 3rd strongest guy, Rafal Majka was strong too. Roglic was probably more impressive too despite finishing 1.5 min behind.
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This take on Bernal's performance in last year's Lombardia truly surprises me.
I have very different feelings about it. He was not bad on Sormano. I know the following descent and if you don't have good legs you can't attack on your own and close a 20/30 sec gap to competent descenders like Nibali and Roglic. After bridging he takes his fair share of pulls on the flat, drops once Civiglio starts but manages his effort well and only loses 1'30" to the winner.
You don't finish 12th in a 240km hard classic by only descending fast from one hill, which I understand is your (and rollethedice's) opinion. Or by being below average uphill. Mollema was below average uphill on that day and he finished 10 minutes down.

One could make a case for Martin or Majka being stronger than him (although the way they managed to be redropped by the post-surgery grandpa version of Nibali was quite something) and I sure have no way to prove they weren't. But to me Roglic was a clear case of someone who was weaker than him (impressive attack on Sormano, but how long did it last before Nibali and Pinot caught him and immediately dropped him?). They rode a very similar race, and Roglic finished more than a minute behind.

Anyway, my main point is that I believe Lombardia is more suited as a race to Bernal's skills than Milano Torino is. We'll know more on Saturday.
 
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Blanco

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When I said average, I meant average by his own standards. 12th in a Monument as hard as Lombardia is not a fluke, but for the one of the very best climbers of the World I would say his climbing that day was pretty average.
Take Valverde for example, he finished 11th that day, but for me he was below average.

And I don't see why is Lombardia more suited to his skills then MiTo. He's not particularly known as an endurance rider (at least for now), so why would a race of 250 km which ends up on a flat finish suit him better than a race of 180 km which ends on a hard MTF, raced twice in the last 23 km?

But, anyway, as you said, we'll see on Saturday.
 
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shalgo said:
I agree. In addition, Bernal was already 13th at Lombardia as a 20-year-old in 2017. That certainly suggests that he has the potential to do very well in this race.
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I have zero doubts Bernal will be competitive in this race for many years. Most riders we consider contenders for Saturday failed to crack the top 30 of this race before turning 25. He was 13th at 20.

The question mark is not on his potential, which is obviously there. It's on his shape. And his climbing time of Oropa casts more doubts on that than him being outpunched by the likes of Valverde and Woods on the way to Superga.
 
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