2019 Strade Bianche, March 9th, 184 km 1.WT

[Bolder]

Fuglsang dumb as f*ck. Rookie mistake.

Dunno about that ... seems a little harsh ... he's 33 and a pretty seasoned veteran, but to have any chance against a smaller, lighter and much younger Ala he would have needed to go earlier, for sure. Last 1.5 km was made for Alaphilippe in any event. WVA with a heroic effort but did 2x the work as the top 2 in the final 15 k.

Overall it didn't look to me like there were a lot of tactical mistakes -- strongest guys were clearly there at the end. I did think/hope that Nibali would have been closer to the sharp end, love to see GC guys do well in one-day races.

 

[Anderis]

Fuglsang dumb as f*ck. Rookie mistake.

In which way could he have beaten Alaphilippe today? Seriously, I can't see any.

 

[Koronin]

Re:

Alaphilippe!!! How much could one make by just betting on QS race after race?

No kidding.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Wow, Bettiol dropped all the way from the first group to 22 minutes down. Heavy cramps!

 

[Nirvana]

Re:

I wonder who will be the first rider to complete the March Italian triple: Strade Bianche - Tirreno - MSR

Already done by Cancellara in 2008.

 

[Akuryo]

Re: Re:

I wonder who will be the first rider to complete the March Italian triple: Strade Bianche - Tirreno - MSR

Already done by Cancellara in 2008.

Good memory, already forgot that one. Still, with this years route of Tirreno it is not out of the question that Alaphilippe will also achieve this feat.

 

[Blanco]

Re: Re:

I wonder who will be the first rider to complete the March Italian triple: Strade Bianche - Tirreno - MSR

Alaphilippe said that MSR is also one of his main goals of the season but Tirreno could be hard.

Tirreno could be hard? And MSR as a goal not so
I could place a bet right now, while he's 26/27 years old, that he will never win Classicissima in his entire career!

 

[Nirvana]

Re: Re:

I wonder who will be the first rider to complete the March Italian triple: Strade Bianche - Tirreno - MSR

Already done by Cancellara in 2008.

Good memory, already forgot that one. Still, with this years route of Tirreno it is not out of the question that Alaphilippe will also achieve this feat.

His problem will be the TTT, without the TTT would have been a written win for him but his team doesn't look good for the TTT without Jungels and Gilbert and Viviani train with him.
And the changes in the route from the originally released one don't help him either, for example the easier second stage without the long climb to Volterra before the uphill finish will help riders like Sagan to stay in contention and so will be harder for him to get bonus seconds and the false flat added in stage five after the wall make harder to go all out on the wall to gain time like with the finish just at the top of the wall because in 1,8 kms there is plenty of time for riders behind to catch you after an all out effort.

Anyway for Sanremo is my favourite, I picked him also in the prediction thread, having Viviani there will help him because he could follow moves without pulling, already two years ago we saw that in a reduced sprint after 300 kms was close to Kwiatkowski and Sagan so he has the chance to win against everyone able to go away on the Poggio or maybe before (if a group with a Quick-Step rider will go on the Cipressa I don't know if some other teams will close on the Aurelia knowing that they are so strong and could both counter-attack on the Poggio or sprint).

 

[Akuryo]

Re: Re:

I wonder who will be the first rider to complete the March Italian triple: Strade Bianche - Tirreno - MSR

Alaphilippe said that MSR is also one of his main goals of the season but Tirreno could be hard.

Tirreno could be hard? And MSR as a goal not so
I could place a bet right now, while he's 26/27 years old, that he will never win Classicissima in his entire career!

He was already 3rd two years ago and just got outsprinted by Kwiatek and Sagan. Its not impossible for him to take it!

 

[Nirvana]

In the TG sport of Rai they showed his post race interview before the podium, asked about his favourite classics he said that he likes a lot of classics and wants to win all the ones he can but he also said that in the future he wants to win the Tour. I like this because I want to see a Tour route tailor made for him in the future, considering how boring is the Tour maybe taking out the high mountains could be a good idea and lead to a better race.

 

[Blanco]

Re: Re:

I wonder who will be the first rider to complete the March Italian triple: Strade Bianche - Tirreno - MSR

Alaphilippe said that MSR is also one of his main goals of the season but Tirreno could be hard.

Tirreno could be hard? And MSR as a goal not so
I could place a bet right now, while he's 26/27 years old, that he will never win Classicissima in his entire career!

He was already 3rd two years ago and just got outsprinted by Kwiatek and Sagan. Its not impossible for him to take it!

Of course it's not impossible, but many, many things should go in his favor in order to win it. He was just outsprinted by Kwiat and Sagan you say, but he was 3rd out of three, and that's a really rare ocassion - 3 men sprinting for the win. Usually it is 20-30 or even 40 men sprinting on Via Roma. I can't see him winning this unless he solos to the line, but that magic was already done recently by The Shark. He might find himself in a small group sprinting for the win, but I bet there will always be some Sagan, Kwiatkowski, Van Avermaet, Trentin or Matthews sprinting with him. There will not be Fuglsang or Van Aert with him there...

 

[Anderis]

Re:

Wow, Bettiol dropped all the way from the first group to 22 minutes down. Heavy cramps!

I was so excited when I saw him in the first group and then spent 15 minutes trying to figure out what happened to him as in case of dropping from the 1st chase group due to a mechanical or a moment of weakness or a little crash he should still be in that 2nd chase group but I couldn't see him there. Only found out about cramps after the race.

I hope he is back in form and in the next races he can be up there without cramps!

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Well done by Alaphilippe, and wow Fuglsang looked strong. Overall a pretty dull edition of Strade though.

 

[boneshaker]

Re: Re:

I wonder who will be the first rider to complete the March Italian triple: Strade Bianche - Tirreno - MSR

Already done by Cancellara in 2008.

Good memory, already forgot that one. Still, with this years route of Tirreno it is not out of the question that Alaphilippe will also achieve this feat.

Kwiatkowski did it too. Nibali is missing only Strade. In my opinion Van Avermaet has better chances than Allaphillipe.

And the ways Sagan manages not to win any of these is fascinating.

 

[spalco]

Re: Re:

He was already 3rd two years ago and just got outsprinted by Kwiatek and Sagan. Its not impossible for him to take it!

"Just outsprinted"? That's the problem with MSR - getting to the finish line without bringing a better sprinter with you, and I don't see Alaphillipe doing that.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

He was already 3rd two years ago and just got outsprinted by Kwiatek and Sagan. Its not impossible for him to take it!

"Just outsprinted"? That's the problem with MSR - getting to the finish line without bringing a better sprinter with you, and I don't see Alaphillipe doing that.

And there's basically very few attackers without a decent finish in the first place.

Basically the best bet is the exact same scenario as last year and then just sitting on Nibali. BUt I don't think Nibali will get any room ever again in MSR.

Or you need to outsmart a small group in the last few kms. Could use the numbers in that situation over the Poggio.

 

[Blanco]

Re: Re:

I wonder who will be the first rider to complete the March Italian triple: Strade Bianche - Tirreno - MSR

Already done by Cancellara in 2008.

Good memory, already forgot that one. Still, with this years route of Tirreno it is not out of the question that Alaphilippe will also achieve this feat.

Kwiatkowski did it too. Nibali is missing only Strade. In my opinion Van Avermaet has better chances than Allaphillipe.

And the ways Sagan manages not to win any of these is fascinating.

Cancellara did it in one year, Kwiat didn't...

 

[Bolder]

Re:

In the TG sport of Rai they showed his post race interview before the podium, asked about his favourite classics he said that he likes a lot of classics and wants to win all the ones he can but he also said that in the future he wants to win the Tour. I like this because I want to see a Tour route tailor made for him in the future, considering how boring is the Tour maybe taking out the high mountains could be a good idea and lead to a better race.

Interesting thought. Ala would have to basically take a year or so to experiment with becoming a climber. He appears to have the race smarts and the mental toughness to cope with being under pressure for 3 weeks, so that's already a big plus.

In this era of team trains it's about where you could take time , and without the ability to drop a small group of elite contenders in the high mountains he's left with...what? not an itt, can't bank on a ttt, so I don't really see it happening without a big shift in training/program.

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

In the TG sport of Rai they showed his post race interview before the podium, asked about his favourite classics he said that he likes a lot of classics and wants to win all the ones he can but he also said that in the future he wants to win the Tour. I like this because I want to see a Tour route tailor made for him in the future, considering how boring is the Tour maybe taking out the high mountains could be a good idea and lead to a better race.

A Tour for Alaphilippe to win would be an atrocity of a design probably.

 

[tobydawq]

Re: Re:

I wonder who will be the first rider to complete the March Italian triple: Strade Bianche - Tirreno - MSR

Already done by Cancellara in 2008.

Good memory, already forgot that one. Still, with this years route of Tirreno it is not out of the question that Alaphilippe will also achieve this feat.

Kwiatkowski did it too. Nibali is missing only Strade. In my opinion Van Avermaet has better chances than Allaphillipe.

And the ways Sagan manages not to win any of these is fascinating.

I think Alexandre meant in the same year. Which Cancellara - quite incredibly - did in 2008.

 

[tobydawq]

Also, it's a real pity with the forum issues. We all know that the real way to assess the prestige of a race is by its race thread length. So Strade majorly loses out this year

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

Also, it's a real pity with the forum issues. We all know that the real way to assess the prestige of a race is by its race thread length. So Strade majorly loses out this year

I knew the finishing TT of 2011 Suisse was more prestigious than most MSRs

 

[Alexandre B.]

Re: Re:

I wonder who will be the first rider to complete the March Italian triple: Strade Bianche - Tirreno - MSR

Already done by Cancellara in 2008.

Good memory, already forgot that one. Still, with this years route of Tirreno it is not out of the question that Alaphilippe will also achieve this feat.

Kwiatkowski did it too. Nibali is missing only Strade. In my opinion Van Avermaet has better chances than Allaphillipe.

And the ways Sagan manages not to win any of these is fascinating.

I think Alexandre meant in the same year. Which Cancellara - quite incredibly - did in 2008.

That's exactly what I meant.

 

[Koronin]

Re:

In the TG sport of Rai they showed his post race interview before the podium, asked about his favourite classics he said that he likes a lot of classics and wants to win all the ones he can but he also said that in the future he wants to win the Tour. I like this because I want to see a Tour route tailor made for him in the future, considering how boring is the Tour maybe taking out the high mountains could be a good idea and lead to a better race.

He's going to have to become a much better climber if he wants to win or podium at a Grand Tour. In reality last year's Worlds showed us the he still has a ways to go in the climbing department as he wasn't able to climb with Bardet, Woods, Moscon, and Valverde. A Tour route made for Alaphilippe would be a disaster of a route. I like Alaphilippe, but unless he becomes a better climber he's not going to be a GT GC threat.

 

[Nirvana]

Re: Re:

In the TG sport of Rai they showed his post race interview before the podium, asked about his favourite classics he said that he likes a lot of classics and wants to win all the ones he can but he also said that in the future he wants to win the Tour. I like this because I want to see a Tour route tailor made for him in the future, considering how boring is the Tour maybe taking out the high mountains could be a good idea and lead to a better race.

A Tour for Alaphilippe to win would be an atrocity of a design probably.

The train make high mountains a borefest, taking out the high mountains IMHO could be a good idea to try, I don't think a lot of hilly/medium mountain stages could be controlled in the same way.