2019 Tour de France, stage 3: Binche - Epernay, 215km

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Rollthedice said:
Bonus seconds here:

Stage 3 (Epernay): cote de Mutigny
Stage 6 (La Planche des Belles Filles): col des Chevreres
Stage 8 (Saint-Etienne): cote de la Jailliere
Stage 9 (Brioude): cote de Saint-Just
Stage 12 (Bagneres-de-Bigorre): Hourquette d’Ancizan
Stage 15 (Foix Prat d’Albis): mur de Peguere
Stage 18 (Valloire): col du Galibier
Stage 19 (Tignes): col de l’Iseran
Laurent Fignon could have told you how important eight seconds can be. :geek:
 
Max Rockatansky said:


Actually you don't need any bonus on a finale like that. Looks like Tirreno to me.
Yes, it's way harder than most think, they should really softpedal every climb to make possible for Sagan survive like many are suggesting, if raced properly I think is too much even for Matthews and van Avermaet, more likely a sprint between riders like Alaphilippe, Bettiol, Lutsenko, Pinot (and Valverde if he's interested).
 
Both Valgren and Wurtz have said they are targeting this one, so there should be some action for the Danes.

Too tough a finish for the pure sprinters, but Sagan, Matthews and Colbrelli will all try to stick with the puncheurs, who will keep attacking them in the last 50 k.

Amstel kind of day :)
 
Nirvana said:
Max Rockatansky said:


Actually you don't need any bonus on a finale like that. Looks like Tirreno to me.
Yes, it's way harder than most think, they should really softpedal every climb to make possible for Sagan survive like many are suggesting, if raced properly I think is too much even for Matthews and van Avermaet, more likely a sprint between riders like Alaphilippe, Bettiol, Lutsenko, Pinot (and Valverde if he's interested).
It's certainly not harder than the Tirreno stage Sagan won in 2017!

The question is if he is as good as back then.
 
Actually, it's only 6/7 meters most of the time. That is more like Amstel Gold Race than LBL/Tirreno

And, another important thing, the rest of the stage isn't that hard. So like Valkenburg finish in the TDF, there will be FAR less selection. Really I think guys like Ewan, Teunissen (why not) stand as much chance as the real punchers..
 
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Dekker_Tifosi said:
Actually, it's only 6/7 meters most of the time. That is more like Amstel Gold Race than LBL/Tirreno

And, another important thing, the rest of the stage isn't that hard. So like Valkenburg finish in the TDF, there will be FAR less selection. Really I think guys like Ewan, Teunissen (why not) stand as much chance as the real punchers..
It really depends on how hard the climbs are ridden. Given QS will probably ride for Alaphilippe I guess they'll want to shred the peloton.

Bonus seconds up for grabs may also just cause attacks from dudes like Dan Martin who don't think they can win but can take some time back there.

The finale is actually harder than the 2014 stage to Sheffield that Nibali won, where the peloton was whittled down to only 20 men, many of which were GC riders.
 
tobydawq said:
Nirvana said:
Max Rockatansky said:


Actually you don't need any bonus on a finale like that. Looks like Tirreno to me.
Yes, it's way harder than most think, they should really softpedal every climb to make possible for Sagan survive like many are suggesting, if raced properly I think is too much even for Matthews and van Avermaet, more likely a sprint between riders like Alaphilippe, Bettiol, Lutsenko, Pinot (and Valverde if he's interested).
It's certainly not harder than the Tirreno stage Sagan won in 2017!

The question is if he is as good as back then.
On the paper yes, in that stage there was more climbing and altitude gain spreaded on the route but they let Bora setting the pace that Sagan wanted until the wall (that was only 600 meters with double digits) on which he was still dropped before recatching the climbers on a slight descent stretch after it while they were watching each other. Anyway today, if raced properly, the finale could be very hard with the two 1 km long walls, the 2,3 kms long climb at 6,6% and the final stretch to the line, I can see him surviving only if no one will try something and a 70/100 men group will approach the sprint, but still in that case the last 300 meters at 10% should be enough to take him out of contention against lighter puncheurs/fast climbers. That regardless of how good he is this year, to be the favourite here IMHO he should have been the 2010-2015 lighter version of Sagan.
 
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Pirazziattacks said:
Flamin said:
Nice stage, pretty unpredictable. This would have been one for peak Sagan but now I'm going with Alaphilippe.

I wonder how far Ewan can go in a stage like this.
I'm surprised Ewan hasn't been mentioned by anyone else, he was by far the quickest when Carapaz won on a similar finish at the Giro but just left his sprint too late.
Thought he was mentioned, and of the real sprinters probably the one with the biggest shot. He was also impressive in a steep finish in te UAE Tour.
 
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Logic-is-your-friend said:
Pirazziattacks said:
Flamin said:
Nice stage, pretty unpredictable. This would have been one for peak Sagan but now I'm going with Alaphilippe.

I wonder how far Ewan can go in a stage like this.
I'm surprised Ewan hasn't been mentioned by anyone else, he was by far the quickest when Carapaz won on a similar finish at the Giro but just left his sprint too late.
Thought he was mentioned, and of the real sprinters probably the one with the biggest shot. He was also impressive in a steep finish in te UAE Tour.
I agree. I believe this finish suits him much better than than Frascati in the Giro where he reacted too late to Carapaz but easily beat all the puncheurs there.
 
I agree that if this was 2012 or 2013, he would be the overwhelming favourite but I still don't agree with you when you say there has to be 70-100 people left for him to be in contention.

I mean, last year at Amstel, the guy was on the level of Valverde and stronger than Alaphilippe.
 
The finish shouldn't be a problem for the any of the hardy sprinters/heavy puncheurs. It's the hills before that.

The elimination order list starts with Ewan and ends with Alaphilippe. It all depends on the mood of the peloton.. are they soft-pedaling or will there be any GC action?
 
I think Sagan can power through those 1km ramps, don't know if he'll be the fastest in the end afterwards though. And I'm not optimistic for the break in a stage where so many riders from different teams want to win.
 

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