2020 Giro Route Rumors

[Mayomaniac]

La Gazzetta mentions a possible finish in Roccaraso instead of Campo Imperatore as the possible 2nd Abruzzo stage, so a downhill finish or a possible Aremogna MTF.
Edit: The climb before a downhill finish could be this one

Rifugio Aremogna is a decent first week uphill finish that would come shortly after the descent.

 

[Red Rick]

I mean it's hard to do worse than with those Hungary stages

It's easy.

Just start in the Netherlands

 

[Mayomaniac]

Any news about when the revamped route will be revealed?

 

[RedheadDane]

Any news about when the revamped route will be revealed?

It has been.

https://www.cyclingweekly.com/news/...-with-crowds-allowed-at-sicilian-start-458222

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

It has been.

https://www.cyclingweekly.com/news/...-with-crowds-allowed-at-sicilian-start-458222

Clearly you haven't read the article. They are still working on the actual stages.

 

[RedheadDane]

Oh, I thought "swapped with next year" meant that they would simply swap it with next year.

 

[Eshnar]

Any news about when the revamped route will be revealed?

Tuesday 30th.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

The opening stage will be a 13km ITT (12.9 to be exact) in Palermo.

 

[Lequack]

Chance for Evenepoel to get the jersey on the first day and keep it until the end. Not unlike Roglic last year.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Chance for Evenepoel to get the jersey on the first day and keep it until the end. Not unlike Roglic last year.

lol
I certainly hope he can pull something like that off, but i still don't think he will win (though i have started to believe there might be a possibility he can win, if the team is able to restrain him over 3 weeks). His temperament and inexperience will (i fear) cost him. I'm looking at Nibali first and foremost, as a sly experienced contender, who will take advantage of that. Pressure him in the descent, make Evenepoel work in the chase (laying all the responsibility on him when another top 10 rider is in the break) etc. I could certainly see a scenario, in which Evenepoel starts thinking things are going very well somewhere along the second week and gets ahead of himself, and gets hit by the hammer in the third week, losing minutes in one stage.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Provided he doesn't crash badly or something along those lines, he should enter the Alps in pink. There won't that many riders capable of winning a GT to challenge him, so either he fights for the win until the end, or he collapses on one of the four Alpine stages. Agree that his inexperience could decide the GC battle if he's still leading by the time we reach the Stelvio stage. Of the confirmed field, I would still put him as third favourite though (although there are arguably more riders who have a greater chance of making the podium than him).

 

[Laplaz]

Chance for Evenepoel to get the jersey on the first day and keep it until the end. Not unlike Roglic last year.

There will be strong contenders for the opening ITT though. Dennis, Ganna, Campenaerts, just to name a few.

 

[Bonimenier]

Is there a profile of the opening time trial yet? I hope it also ends on a little climb like the one in Hungary. That one looked pretty nice.

The level of Nibali's time trials are not always that consistent. If the level of his time trials in the Giro are close to his best ones in the last couple years, I would say he is favourite #1 for the GC.

 

[Bonimenier]

There will be strong contenders for the opening ITT though. Dennis, Ganna, Campenaerts, just to name a few.

I would put Remco ahead of Ganna and Campenaerts in TT's. I feel like Dennis gets better as TT's get longer. He should be the main favourite to win the opening ITT, but less of a main favourite than on a 30-40km ITT.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I would put Remco ahead of Ganna and Campenaerts in TT's. I feel like Dennis gets better as TT's get longer. He should be the main favourite to win the opening ITT, but less of a main favourite than on a 30-40km ITT.

That's debatable though. Dennis gained only 4 seconds on Evenepoel in the final 1/3rd of the world championships parcours. At one point he was even losing time compared to Evenepoel, around the 40k mark. Going from 1m5s back to 1m2s. Finally, he won with 1m9s. The fact that Roglic was able to keep up with him was also telling. That means it was almost a status quo for the final 15k of the parcours, and that Dennis gained 1m5s on the first 40km.

 

[Bonimenier]

That's debatable though. Dennis gained only 4 seconds on Evenepoel in the final 1/3rd of the world championships parcours. At one point he was even losing time compared to Evenepoel, around the 40k mark. Going from 1m5s back to 1m2s. Finally, he won with 1m9s. The fact that Roglic was able to keep up with him was also telling. That means it was almost a status quo for the final 15k of the parcours, and that Dennis gained 1m5s on the first 40km.

It is debatable, yes, but what you say, isn't really proving anything. At that point Dennis knew already he was 1 minute in front of the rest. Also if Remco would have been as fast as Dennis in the first half of the TT, it could possibly be that he would have lost more time than 1m9s in the second part.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

It is debatable, yes, but what you say, isn't really proving anything. At that point Dennis knew already he was 1 minute in front of the rest. Also if Remco would have been as fast as Dennis in the first half of the TT, it could possibly be that he would have lost more time than 1m9s in the second part.

You make it sound as if these guys don't have a plan before starting an ITT of this length. As if they are contemplating whether they will start fast or slow today, just because they feel like it. These guys are tested out the wazoo, and they come up with a plan, a schedule together with their trainer, that best fits their physical qualities for a certain course. A timetrialer also doesn't "slow down" or "hold back" because he has a 1 minute lead. Especially not when you just overtook one of your biggest rivals, and know he crashed and had a puncture. One minute is nothing when you crash and have to change bikes.

He could have won an extra second or two in the final 50 meters by not celebrating, yes. Or a second in one of the few turns there were in the course, by not taking risks. And if he was able to drop Roglic, he certainy would have done so.

 

[Rui Machado]

Who will be the gc contenders that this year will go to the giro?

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Who will be the gc contenders that this year will go to the giro?

There is a specific topic that people update with new info for which GC riders go to TDF/Giro/Vuelta. So far for Giro, the most notable confirmed GC candidates are:
Nibali, Carapaz, Majka, Fuglsang, Carthy, Soler, Hagen, De Plus, Evenepoel, Konrad, Ciccone, Knox, McNulty.

There is still a slim chance Simon Yates might do the Giro (but unlikely it seems due to the corona schedule changes). Kelderman seems more likely (but still not certain).

 

[Rui Machado]

There is a specific topic that people update with new info for which GC riders go to TDF/Giro/Vuelta. So far for Giro, the most notable confirmed GC candidates are:
Nibali, Carapaz, Majka, Fuglsang, Carthy, Soler, Hagen, De Plus, Evenepoel, Konrad, Ciccone, Knox, McNulty.

There is still a slim chance Simon Yates might do the Giro (but unlikely it seems due to the corona schedule changes). Kelderman seems more likely (but still not certain).

Thanks! I still believe that some of the best gc contenders that will do the tour, also will do the giro.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Thanks! I still believe that some of the best gc contenders that will do the tour, also will do the giro.

There is only two weeks in between the end of the Tour and the start of the Giro. What you are proposing is not a realistic option, unless those GC riders did not ride for GC in the tour or will not ride the Giro for GC. Chances are much greater that they will ride the Vuelta if they want to ride a 2nd GT. Only GC riders that crash in the Tour or loose too much time, could possibly quit the Tour and focus on the Giro instead.

 

[johnymax]

I would put Remco ahead of Ganna and Campenaerts in TT's. I feel like Dennis gets better as TT's get longer. He should be the main favourite to win the opening ITT, but less of a main favourite than on a 30-40km ITT.

I always thought it's the other way around. At least 3-5 years ago he was known to be somewhat of a short TT specialist. On flat courses up to 25km he was practically unbeatable. When the ITT got hillier and longer he was more vulnerable.

Nowadays he has become more complete as a TT rider and is hard to beat on any terrain that isn't a MTT.

 

[Bonimenier]

You make it sound as if these guys don't have a plan before starting an ITT of this length. As if they are contemplating whether they will start fast or slow today, just because they feel like it. These guys are tested out the wazoo, and the come up with a plan, a schedule together with their trainer, that best fits their physical qualities for a certain course.

No, I was saying exactly the opposite. If anything you were the one who was claiming anything that comes remotely close to what you describe in this post. You say that Dennis might be better in shorter time trials because the difference between him and the rest on the last part of the course was smaller than in the start. He obviously planned to start pretty strong and try to hold it the whole way through, because he knew he was capable of doing just that. Remco meanwhile started a bit more moderate because he knew he probably couldn't go as strong for the whole 50k.

I always thought it's the other way around. At least 3-5 years ago he was known to be somewhat of a short TT specialist. On flat courses up to 25km he was practically unbeatable. When the ITT got hillier and longer he was more vulnerable.

Nowadays he has become more complete as a TT rider and is hard to beat on any terrain that isn't a MTT.

I also thought it was the other way around a couple of years back. I didn't mean to imply that he became worse in short TT's, but he did mature in a more all-around TT'er. I feel like relatively to younger guys like Remco, he has more of an advantage in longer ITTs. Remco also might get (even) better in longer TT's as he ages.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

No, I was saying exactly the opposite. If anything you were the one who was claiming anything that comes remotely close to what you describe in this post. You say that Dennis might be better in shorter time trials because the difference between him and the rest on the last part of the course was smaller than in the start. He obviously planned to start pretty strong and try to hold it the whole way through, because he knew he was capable of doing just that. Remco meanwhile started a bit more moderate because he knew he probably couldn't go as strong for the whole 50k.

Eh, your explanation makes no sense. It was you who said "Also if Remco would have been as fast as Dennis in the first half of the TT, it could possibly be that he would have lost more time than 1m9s in the second part." This is completely besides the point as no rider would ever do this if it doesn't suit his abilities. If you are stronger in the second part, when most others get weaker, then that is the part were you make the gap. If he is stronger in the second part, he would risk blowing his race by going against his nature and push harder in the beginning than he normally is able to push, risking not being able to create a gap on the second part.

 

[Bonimenier]

Eh, your explanation makes no sense. It was you who said "Also if Remco would have been as fast as Dennis in the first half of the TT, it could possibly be that he would have lost more time than 1m9s in the second part." This is completely besides the point as no rider would ever do this if it doesn't suit his abilities. If you are stronger in the second part, when most others get weaker, then that is the part were you make the gap. If he is stronger in the second part, he would risk blowing his race by going against his nature and push harder in the beginning than he normally is able to push, risking not being able to create a gap on the second part.

Maybe I better said "If Remco tried to have been as fast as Dennis in the first half...". Because obviously noone would willingly blow himself up. For the rest you're pretty much repeating me, so no point in going in further.