Tour de France 2021 Tour de France: Who is going to win the green jersey?

[Netserk]

Rules:

Notice that unlike previous years, there's 50 points for the winner on the Mûr-de-Bretagne, and likewise full amount of points for stage 1's uphill finish.

Notice as well that none of the intermediates are placed after a cat 1 or HC mountain, and only 2 intermediates are placed after a cat 2 climb, so all of them are in play.

Poll is based on https://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/tour-de-france-2021/points-classification

 

[memyselfandI]

MVdP.

Edit: He seems to be bit leaner than usual, or is it my imagination (thinking who gets easier over mountain stages inside time limit).

 

[Netserk]

As it is not unlikely that we'll have 8 full-on bunch sprints (if not for echelons and breakaways, even if the latter is unlikely nowadays), Ewan and Bennett are likely to rack up a ton of points there alone. For others to win, they will have to get in the top-2 on several of those stages, I think.

 

[MADRAZO]

It will be very interesting to see if Ewan for once will bother to do the intermediate sprints. He might never get a better chance to win this again than this year with 8 easy sprintstages. And if he does he should be the clear favourite. Otherwise Demare, Sagan and Bennett should have a close battle.

Its difficult to see riders that wont sprint in the flat stages like MVDP have much chance.

 

[Red Rick]

As it is not unlikely that we'll have 8 full-on bunch sprints (if not for echelons and breakaways, even if the latter is unlikely nowadays), Ewan and Bennett are likely to rack up a ton of points there alone. For others to win, they will have to get in the top-2 on several of those stages, I think.

And here I am thinking "that doesn't sound right, surely there's at least 2 of them where Bora or so can drill some mid sized climb in the middle of the stage and prevent that" but nah. 8 sprint stages guaranteed. Absolutely brilliant.

 

[Red Rick]

Van der Poel won't finish anyway, so it's Ewan vs Bennett with Bennet probably winning by default cause of the way better train.

Maybe Ewan can contend stage 1?

 

[Netserk]

Maybe Ewan can contend stage 1?

I don't think so. In GTs, he doesn't climb like on the Poggio.

Sagan needs to step up from what he showed in the Giro and hope that he won't be too fatigued from the it to go in breaks repeatedly, but at least we know that he is fully committed to get points everywhere.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Looks like a Bennett vs Ewan battle. And a fun one as well. The heads up between the two is as close as you'll ever see a battle between the two top sprinters; in sprints they've both contested (both finished top 10), the score is 14-12 in favor of Ewan. 11 of those Ewan won, while Bennett won 7.

 

[Monte Serra]

What about Démare's chances? He seems to be in okay shape, and at least had a better preparation than Bennett.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Isn't there's still talk about Van der Poel making it to Paris due to sponsor commitments?
But still why would they ride the bunch sprints for him, when they got a rider who's much better at it?

It will depend on how strong Sagan is. He looked better in the Giro than last year, but he was also lucky that Nizzolo climbed bad and that Viviani sprinted even worse. But if he is even stronger now, then he definitely has a good chance, if one guy doesn't score of most of the big points.

 

[Red Rick]

I don't think so. In GTs, he doesn't climb like on the Poggio.

Sagan needs to step up from what he showed in the Giro and hope that he won't be too fatigued from the it to go in breaks repeatedly, but at least we know that he is fully committed to get points everywhere.

He contested stage 4 of the 2019 Giro, but granted that was after a crash decimated the peloton and vs far inferior puncheurs.

 

[Netserk]

The problem for Sagan is that one of Ewan and Bennett is likely to win at least five stages, and he is not favoured to win any stage. His best chances are stage 1 and 16 (if he is 'allowed' in the break or strong enough to force himself there).

If it wasn't for the knee troubles for Bennett, I wouldn't give Sagan any chance, but we'll see after the first four stages what shape they are in.

 

[CyclistAbi]

If he is healthy (knee injury) and well prepared then Bennett is likely the man to beat.

 

[saganftw]

considering the vomit inducing design of flat stages, it has to be a pure sprinter BOOOOORING

too bad cav and groenewegen arent in, at least a possibility of crash would be something to look forward to

 

[Leinster]

Isn't there's still talk about Van der Poel making it to Paris due to sponsor commitments?
But still why would they ride the bunch sprints for him, when they got a rider who's much better at it?

It will depend on how strong Sagan is. He looked better in the Giro than last year, but he was also lucky that Nizzolo climbed bad and that Viviani sprinted even worse. But if he is even stronger now, then he definitely has a good chance, if one guy doesn't score of most of the big points.

Agree with all of this. I'd say Alpecin would be much more likely to support Merlier in the bunch sprints, maybe even using vdP as (part of) his leadout. vdP is more likely to aim for stage wins (1,2, 7, maybe 14, probably 15 if he stays on past rest day 2)

Sagan is going to finish top 5 in all the sprint stages, and top 3 in a few, and contest all the intermediates, so anyone else who is chasing green can't afford to miss any days. Last year Bennett won with 380 points to Sagan's 284; given the higher number of sprint stages I suspect the winner might have to clear 400 or more. And not in a mid-2010s-style, "1 Sagan 450 pts, 2 Somebody Else 200 pts, 3 Jonny GC Rider 180 pts".

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Agree with all of this. I'd say Alpecin would be much more likely to support Merlier in the bunch sprints, maybe even using vdP as (part of) his leadout. vdP is more likely to aim for stage wins (1,2, 7, maybe 14, probably 15 if he stays on past rest day 2)

Sagan is going to finish top 5 in all the sprint stages, and top 3 in a few, and contest all the intermediates, so anyone else who is chasing green can't afford to miss any days. Last year Bennett won with 380 points to Sagan's 284; given the higher number of sprint stages I suspect the winner might have to clear 400 or more. And not in a mid-2010s-style, "1 Sagan 450 pts, 2 Somebody Else 200 pts, 3 Jonny GC Rider 180 pts".

And if DQS don't have any GC aspirations, there would be nothing stopping them from closing Sagan down on the harder stages. The same goes for Lotto, but Ewan doens't even seem interessed in ever wearing points jersey in a GT let alone win it

But because haven't seen many of the favourites in races this month, it's hard to predict. Mørkøv gives Bennett the edge in the bunch and intermediate sprints, if he isn't too far from peak condition.

 

[carolina]

Bennett's preparation wasn't ideal, so I'm going with Sagan to take the green again.

 

[happytramp]

If DQS can't figure out how to stop Ewan from jumping off bennett's wheel and piping him at the line Ewan will be very hard to beat.... Assuming he finishes the tour of course.

 

[happytramp]

considering the vomit inducing design of flat stages, it has to be a pure sprinter BOOOOORING

too bad cav and groenewegen arent in, at least a possibility of crash would be something to look forward to

Classy guy.

 

[will-10]

Hopefully we get another pure sprinter v. Sagan battle. VdP won't do enough bunch sprints to contend.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

And if DQS don't have any GC aspirations, there would be nothing stopping them from closing Sagan down on the harder stages. The same goes for Lotto, but Ewan doens't even seem interessed in ever wearing points jersey in a GT let alone win it

But because haven't seen many of the favourites in races this month, it's hard to predict. Mørkøv gives Bennett the edge in the bunch and intermediate sprints, if he isn't too far from peak condition.

Ewan has talked a lot - or at least some - about contesting the green jersey this year.

 

[memyselfandI]

From actual sprinters I think Demare is interesting one. He did very nice Giro last year and if that brings any uplift and if FDJ tgv gets going as well as it did last year, who knows..

 

[Rackham]

Caleb Ewan, IMO.

He's the fastest out of the pure sprinters & I believe he can pass the mountains better than before (in fact he was pretty impressive in Milan-San Remo earlier this year).

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Caleb Ewan, IMO.

He's the fastest out of the pure sprinters & I believe he can pass the mountains better than before (in fact he was pretty impressive in Milan-San Remo earlier this year).

One thing is doing a short effort like on Poggio; another is climbing long mountain passes in the third week of a Grand Tour. Ewan is very good at the former, very bad at the latter. That said, it shouldn't hinder him that much in regards to the green jersey, and he for sure is one of the 3 biggest favorites.

 

[Netserk]

Since 2018 where several sprinters didn't make through the mountain stages, I don't we've seen (m)any drop out? I don't think any of the stages this year are the least threatening.