Tour de France 2021 Tour de France: Who is going to win the green jersey?

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Who will win the points classification?


  • Total voters
    67
  • Poll closed .
  • Ewan literally doesn't care
  • Van Aert will have to babysit Roglic in the mountains
  • Bennett is banned
  • Demare doesn't look nearly as good as in last year's Giro
  • MvdP won't contest many sprints as Merlier and Philipsen are also there
  • Merlier same problem as MvdP
  • High chance that some of these guys won't even finish (Olympics, Vuelta...)
  • Cav might win a stage, but he has no path to green
  • Matthews just can't
Sagan is my pick. He's been looking pretty good and I think he can both place well in the flat sprints and maybe even go with the Crazy Trio in the punchy hills. People like to sh*t on him these days but I think he's still a monster just waiting to be unleashed.

Colbrelli is my dark horse. Spectacular climbing form and still impressively fast, but I have to rate him below Sagan and most others on the list for the pancakes.
 
I think Mathieu will not finish the Tour. I think Merlier won't finish it either for different reasons. I think the only one in that team that could go for green is Philipsen (but he won't win).
Can't imagine Cav chasing green, as it will hamper his chances for actual stagewin(s).
Can't see Van Aert chasing green, not only isn't he 100%, he has other priorities during the Tour, and should work towards the Olympics, rather than get caught in battle for green.
Somehow i can't see Ewan for it either.

I could see Démare take a swing, but not sure about his form.
My bet would probably still be Sagan.
 
  • Ewan literally doesn't care
  • Van Aert will have to babysit Roglic in the mountains
  • Bennett is banned
  • Demare doesn't look nearly as good as in last year's Giro
  • MvdP won't contest many sprints as Merlier and Philipsen are also there
  • Merlier same problem as MvdP
  • High chance that some of these guys won't even finish (Olympics, Vuelta...)
  • Cav might win a stage, but he has no path to green
  • Matthews just can't
Sagan is my pick. He's been looking pretty good and I think he can both place well in the flat sprints and maybe even go with the Crazy Trio in the punchy hills. People like to sh*t on him these days but I think he's still a monster just waiting to be unleashed.

Colbrelli is my dark horse. Spectacular climbing form and still impressively fast, but I have to rate him below Sagan and most others on the list for the pancakes.
Pretty much agree on all counts. With Bennett there, I would think Sagan would be beaten by him again but now things look good for Sagan.

But yeah, I have a more flat feeling about it (if you can have flat feelings, I don't know if it makes sense) than usually, because Van Aert would win it with two fingers in his nose if he so wished, so it will not be as enjoyable to watch Sagan scramble for points as usual when you know there is a guy who is much better than him.
 
Reactions: Andre and Sandisfan
Pretty much agree on all counts. With Bennett there, I would think Sagan would be beaten by him again but now things look good for Sagan.

But yeah, I have a more flat feeling about it (if you can have flat feelings, I don't know if it makes sense) than usually, because Van Aert would win it with two fingers in his nose if he so wished, so it will not be as enjoyable to watch Sagan scramble for points as usual when you know there is a guy who is much better than him.
I don't know about that. I still think we haven't seen top Sagan vs top Van Aert yet, as last year Peter was off his best by quite a bit while VA's form was just off the charts. This year I think it will be closer, as Sagan looks better and Van Aert has had a few physical issues to hinder his preparation.

Regardless, imho even if Roglic crashed on day one and Van Aert had complete freedom to chase green (or yellow, lol), it would still be pretty difficult to take it from Sagan, who is just a lot more experienced (together with his team) in the "scramble for points" as you put it. Wout doesn't dominate flat bunch sprints enough to offset that.
 
Reactions: Sandisfan
I don't know about that. I still think we haven't seen top Sagan vs top Van Aert yet, as last year Peter was off his best by quite a bit while VA's form was just off the charts. This year I think it will be closer, as Sagan looks better and Van Aert has had a few physical issues to hinder his preparation.

Regardless, imho even if Roglic crashed on day one and Van Aert had complete freedom to chase green (or yellow, lol), it would still be pretty difficult to take it from Sagan, who is just a lot more experienced (together with his team) in the "scramble for points" as you put it. Wout doesn't dominate flat bunch sprints enough to offset that.
No, but a peak Wout could literally take points on every stage in the race. Time trials, mountains, sprints, no problem. It's just sick.
 
Reactions: hayneplane
Demare, Cavendish or Merlier is the 2nd best sprinter here (Van Aert won't really go for it).

No Bennett. Groenewegen neither. Viviani and Gaviria have lost their previous level, likewise with Ackermann.

A year ago, this field would be seen as a total walkover for Ewan.
So the field is weak, because some sprinters who are not that fast anymore are not in the race...? It makes no sense to say, riders A B and C did better than X a year ago, so if today X does better then everybody else is sucking.

You gotta accept that you now live in a timeline where Cav is going stronger than Viviani and Gaviria, and Merlier is among the fastest guys around. Form changes, and especially quickly for sprinters.

Bennett's presence could have made a difference, but he's weak at the knee, either literally or metaphorically. Also I can't believe VA will never be allowed to sprint on those flat stages, there are too many of them and other guys can look after Roglic for a while.
 
Demare, Cavendish or Merlier is the 2nd best sprinter here (Van Aert won't really go for it).

No Bennett. Groenewegen neither. Viviani and Gaviria have lost their previous level, likewise with Ackermann.

A year ago, this field would be seen as a total walkover for Ewan.
Right but Merlier seemed to have the measure of Ewan early in the Giro but he seemed to fall off early. And as you say, Gaviria, Viviani, Groenewegen, Ackermann and Jakobsen are all not at a high level. Maybe Nizzolo will be more missed than those (and it's a bit weird he is not present given the team's awful lineup).

If Bol can find the same speed that won him his stage in Paris-Nice, he can win stages. Pedersen probably needs some luck but is quite fast too. But okay, maybe it is not the best sprint field but I think it reflects a general drop-off in quality since 18 months ago.
 
Weak field?? What are you talking about?
? I only reckon Ewan as a superstar sprinter. I remember loads of Tours with 4-5 of those riders, but this year theres a lot of great hilly sprinter/explosive riders (Wout, Mathieu, Sagan, Colbrelli, Mattthews, Alaf) compared to real top tier sprinters.

And please, it should not be illegal to discuss the level of competition. Sometimes it higher than average, and sometimes its lower. Its not controversial
 
Demare, Cavendish or Merlier is the 2nd best sprinter here (Van Aert won't really go for it).

No Bennett. Groenewegen neither. Viviani and Gaviria have lost their previous level, likewise with Ackermann.

A year ago, this field would be seen as a total walkover for Ewan.
Agree. But we cannot talk about relative strength to previous editions/years, the level is static and the likehunters will come forth with their "weak field argument, what a dumbass" comments.
 

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