Giro d'Italia 2022 Giro d'Italia, Stage 21: Verona – Verona 17.4 km ITT (Sunday, May 29th)

From @Eshnar's excellent 2022 Giro d'Italia: Stage-by-stage Analysis thread: https://forum.cyclingnews.com/threads/2022-giro-ditalia-stage-by-stage-analysis.37819/#post-2691581

Stage 21: Verona – Verona 17.4 km ITT
Sunday, May 29th, 13:55 CET





Technical Overview:
The “long” Time Trial of this Giro comes on the final day, and it is only 17 km long on the classic circuit in Verona, pretty much the same route as 2019. It features the last GPM of the Giro, Torricelle (GPM4, 4.6 km at 5.1%) which should not do much damage to anyone. If anything, its descent will make this ITT even less specialist friendly. All in all, only 8 km of this are flat…

Final km:



The Climbs:

Torricelle
: GPM4, 4.6 km at 5.1%
Little more than a false flat. No profile.

What to expect:
Small gaps that will be meaningful only if the GC is really close. And then the celebrations.


Verona
 
So Carapaz needs 4.89 seconds per km over Hindley

When they have TTed against each other previously:
RaceDistanceCarapaz's advantageseconds/km
Vuelta 2018 St 1840.50
Vuelta 2018 St 1632-78-2.44
Giro 2019 St 18445.50
Giro 2019 St 934.81474.22
Giro 2019 St 211760.35
Catalunya 2021 St 218.5321.73
T-Adriatico 2022 St 113.9181.29
Giro 2022 St 29.260.65

It happened once in 8 meetings, but I can't see it, barring some mechanical catastrophe. Nor do I see anyone else expecting it.

Giro 2019 St 21 was essentially the same ride, but Carapaz was enjoying the defence of a comfortable lead, and Hindley had nothing to ride for.

We've all been saying that Carapaz should beat Hindley on the TT, but I think that today's efforts will have hurt the Ecuadorian more. I place the difference between them tomorrow as <10s to Hindley's advantage. Or Carapaz will blow up entirely and lose second.
 

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