Giro d'Italia 2022 Giro d'Italia, Stage 21: Verona – Verona 17.4 km ITT (Sunday, May 29th)

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Bora were the better team, four riders in the top 20. Porte dropping out late didn't matter much really for Carapaz as Carapaz simply didn't have the legs yesterday.
It's possible that if Porte had still been there (both on the stage and in the main peloton), then perhaps his presence could have had the effect of a Sepp Kuss, and Carapaz might not have lost time, or lost significantly less.

Having said that, historically Porte usually drilled the pace when a domestique if he was able to, and it seems that Ineos didn't realise that Carapaz was in trouble until it was too late.
 
Ineos might have been infected with Jumbovism - the fixation with trying to win races by as little as possible. It was like the 2020 Tour, they got the jersey, proceeded to do absolutely nothing, and then lost it on the penultimate day. Ironically enough, when they actually tried to do something.
Only they didn't do nothing. Ineos blew up the peloton as best as they could on both stage 9 & 17, leaving Carapaz to fend for himself for lengthy distances.
 
To me, the biggest shame is that Bilbao didn't drop down a spot in the ITT so that Bahrain could complete the coveted 3rd-6th-12th GC Trifecta. Would have been the icing on the cake after the tactical masterpiece in Stage 20 to clinch the Teams GC by tricking Kamna into dropping back to pull 200m for Hindley.
 
Don't expect Carapaz to make much time on Hindley if any. Tend to think Carapaz just had a bad day more than any illness otherwise he would have lost even more time on a climb like that. Hindley is finishing off the race with the best legs of the contenders.

Bora have four riders in the top 20. No doubts about the best team.
Spot on prediction. Also agree about Bora they played it perfectly.
 
To be fair though, there are a good few GTs in the period before the 2011 Tour that Evans could have won had he decided to focus on them. I mean, there was one point where Denis Menchov had 3 GT wins and Evans none. Why? Because Menchov went after races he could win (and Heras had yet to be reinstated) more often whereas Evans bashed his head against the Tour wall frequently and then was often overraced by the time he got to the Vuelta, having started his season early, done a full spring campaign because of targeting the Ardennes which Menchov wouldn't (as he had almost 0 one-day racing acumen) and then the build up to the Tour.


Obviously the parcours trends also play a large part in that, especially with the trend away from ITTs as that was why there have been many riders who retired without a win that they might have been capable of at a different time, and many for whom the Tour was the only GT that suited them, but they were unlikely to get all the pieces fall into place to be the best at a Tour without a Pereiro-sized slice of luck, whereas had the Vuelta still been using its early 2000s style routes from the post-Indurain generation with the likes of Olano and Casero then they might have been able to pick one up by targeting it à la Menchov.
I don't fully agree on this one. Especially the part regarding Menchov targetting races is inaccurate. Menchov basically never cared about anything else than TdF, which was a huge mistake.

Prime Menchov, which would be his Rabobank tenure (2005-2010) only once targeted as a primary objective a GT outside the TdF, which was 2009 Giro (the one he won).

2005 and 2007 Vuelta only came as an afterthought when he had to abandon or drop his TdF ambitions (2005 he left TdF mid-race, don't know if it was due to poor form or to a crash, but he was not targetting the Vuelta initially; 2007 he was the outright TdF Rabobank leader until Rasmussen raid on Tignes, then continued to play the SuperDom role until Rasmussen exclusion the second to last day). Only after those failures he lined up at Vuelta.

On 2005 Vuelta, Rabo wasn't even considering overall success, they fielded an atrocious team surrounding Denis (anyhow, Heras did beat Menchov fair-and-square on Pajares). On 2007 they managed to put together a decent team around Denis and he was super dominant throughout the race, he was miles above Evans and Sastre while completing TdF (except the last two days).

2008 Giro, Menchov entered the race trying a different approach to TdF after the two aforementioned failures and 2006 subpar performance, when he faded after being the second or third strongest rider on the race behind Floyd Landis on the first 10 days of racing.

He was so good on that Giro (finished 5th within a minute of 3rd place, Bruseghin) without having peaked for it and not being in top shape that he repeated the next year with a real focus on targetting the race. We all know what happened that year.

Then, on his Geox year, he did target the Giro and the Vuelta, since his team was not invited to TdF. His Giro performance was underwhelming, but he did a very good Vuelta, finished fifth despite playing second fiddle to Cobo and doing usual Menchov shenanigans (lost 1.30 by being on the wrong side of a split in one of the early stages, classic Menchov).

Thing is, Menchov won more GT than Cadel because, in my opinion, he had the higher celiing of the two riders. At least he was clearly a better climber than Cadel when being on the top of his game, while being close in ITT performance, maybe marginally worse than Cadel.

The problem with Denis was always consistency, bike handling skills and especially his ability to stay focused on the race, which was dismal. When he was able to avoid losing time on the first week and managed to stay focused he was nearly unbeatable. Particularly when seizing control of the race, he was almost unassailable.

Vuelta played a lot in his favor as a race since those races weren't as dangerous in terms of crashes or missing splits as TdF.
 
I don't fully agree on this one. Especially the part regarding Menchov targetting races is inaccurate. Menchov basically never cared about anything else than TdF, which was a huge mistake.

Prime Menchov, which would be his Rabobank tenure (2005-2010) only once targeted as a primary objective a GT outside the TdF, which was 2009 Giro (the one he won).

2005 and 2007 Vuelta only came as an afterthought when he had to abandon or drop his TdF ambitions (2005 he left TdF mid-race, don't know if it was due to poor form or to a crash, but he was not targetting the Vuelta initially; 2007 he was the outright TdF Rabobank leader until Rasmussen raid on Tignes, then continued to play the SuperDom role until Rasmussen exclusion the second to last day). Only after those failures he lined up at Vuelta.

On 2005 Vuelta, Rabo wasn't even considering overall success, they fielded an atrocious team surrounding Denis (anyhow, Heras did beat Menchov fair-and-square on Pajares). On 2007 they managed to put together a decent team around Denis and he was super dominant throughout the race, he was miles above Evans and Sastre while completing TdF (except the last two days).

2008 Giro, Menchov entered the race trying a different approach to TdF after the two aforementioned failures and 2006 subpar performance, when he faded after being the second or third strongest rider on the race behind Floyd Landis on the first 10 days of racing.

He was so good on that Giro (finished 5th within a minute of 3rd place, Bruseghin) without having peaked for it and not being in top shape that he repeated the next year with a real focus on targetting the race. We all know what happened that year.

Then, on his Geox year, he did target the Giro and the Vuelta, since his team was not invited to TdF. His Giro performance was underwhelming, but he did a very good Vuelta, finished fifth despite playing second fiddle to Cobo and doing usual Menchov shenanigans (lost 1.30 by being on the wrong side of a split in one of the early stages, classic Menchov).

Thing is, Menchov won more GT than Cadel because, in my opinion, he had the higher celiing of the two riders. At least he was clearly a better climber than Cadel when being on the top of his game, while being close in ITT performance, maybe marginally worse than Cadel.

The problem with Denis was always consistency, bike handling skills and especially his ability to stay focused on the race, which was dismal. When he was able to avoid losing time on the first week and managed to stay focused he was nearly unbeatable. Particularly when seizing control of the race, he was almost unassailable.

Vuelta played a lot in his favor as a race since those races weren't as dangerous in terms of crashes or missing splits as TdF.
Rabobank fires Rasmussen as certain Tour de France winner on behalf of cycling's image and suddenly Menchov has a higher ceiling for 3 years than ever before or after. (< 2007 Vuelta a Espana, >2010 Tour de France).

Breukink took over team leadership and he favors the Giro d'Italia much more than other Dutchmen. Hence why he convinced Menchov to try the 2008 Giro d'Italia. After it became clear that the Russian could've fought for the overall victory with a full peak and after the route of the 2009 Giro d'Italia was presented he insisted that Menchov should go for the pink jersey.
 
Rabobank fires Rasmussen as certain Tour de France winner on behalf of cycling's image and suddenly Menchov has a higher ceiling for 3 years than ever before or after. (< 2007 Vuelta a Espana, >2010 Tour de France).

Breukink took over team leadership and he favors the Giro d'Italia much more than other Dutchmen. Hence why he convinced Menchov to try the 2008 Giro d'Italia. After it became clear that the Russian could've fought for the overall victory with a full peak and after the route of the 2009 Giro d'Italia was presented he insisted that Menchov should go for the pink jersey.
Agree on the second part, you have made a better summary than I did on a few lines regarding Menchov history with Giro.

As for the first part, 2005 Menchov was super strong. Those were the reaaaally dark days when Heras while riding Vuelta a España morphed into a mix between prime Merckx, Pantani, Contador and Pogacar. Menchov was able to deal with him until he lost his wheel on a descent, then burned himself on the 20 flat kms until Pajares. He also had a good 2006 TdF despite fading on the 3rd week.
 
I don't fully agree on this one. Especially the part regarding Menchov targetting races is inaccurate. Menchov basically never cared about anything else than TdF, which was a huge mistake.

Prime Menchov, which would be his Rabobank tenure (2005-2010) only once targeted as a primary objective a GT outside the TdF, which was 2009 Giro (the one he won).

2005 and 2007 Vuelta only came as an afterthought when he had to abandon or drop his TdF ambitions (2005 he left TdF mid-race, don't know if it was due to poor form or to a crash, but he was not targetting the Vuelta initially; 2007 he was the outright TdF Rabobank leader until Rasmussen raid on Tignes, then continued to play the SuperDom role until Rasmussen exclusion the second to last day). Only after those failures he lined up at Vuelta.

On 2005 Vuelta, Rabo wasn't even considering overall success, they fielded an atrocious team surrounding Denis (anyhow, Heras did beat Menchov fair-and-square on Pajares). On 2007 they managed to put together a decent team around Denis and he was super dominant throughout the race, he was miles above Evans and Sastre while completing TdF (except the last two days).

2008 Giro, Menchov entered the race trying a different approach to TdF after the two aforementioned failures and 2006 subpar performance, when he faded after being the second or third strongest rider on the race behind Floyd Landis on the first 10 days of racing.

He was so good on that Giro (finished 5th within a minute of 3rd place, Bruseghin) without having peaked for it and not being in top shape that he repeated the next year with a real focus on targetting the race. We all know what happened that year.

Then, on his Geox year, he did target the Giro and the Vuelta, since his team was not invited to TdF. His Giro performance was underwhelming, but he did a very good Vuelta, finished fifth despite playing second fiddle to Cobo and doing usual Menchov shenanigans (lost 1.30 by being on the wrong side of a split in one of the early stages, classic Menchov).

Thing is, Menchov won more GT than Cadel because, in my opinion, he had the higher celiing of the two riders. At least he was clearly a better climber than Cadel when being on the top of his game, while being close in ITT performance, maybe marginally worse than Cadel.

The problem with Denis was always consistency, bike handling skills and especially his ability to stay focused on the race, which was dismal. When he was able to avoid losing time on the first week and managed to stay focused he was nearly unbeatable. Particularly when seizing control of the race, he was almost unassailable.

Vuelta played a lot in his favor as a race since those races weren't as dangerous in terms of crashes or missing splits as TdF.
Disagree on your view that Menchov had a higher ceiling than Evans. For a start Evans had sky high lab numbers so not sure how you define “ceiling”? Even in 2008 TdF on the Alpe a relatively fresh Menchov should have finished that stage much further ahead of Evans if this ceiling idea was true. Instead Menchov couldn’t follow Sastre and had to drop back. You should also know Evans was injured then after a crash on stage 9.

Plus Evans only rode the Vuelta as a consolation prize after a poor TdF - in 2009. Bonus was winning the worlds at Mendrisio together with a healthy dose of self belief.

Evans usually targeted the TdF although to the possible detriment of his palmeres as the level at the Tour was usually higher. After his 2002 debut he belatedly targeted the Giro again in 2013 but was in physical decline by then.
 
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Disagree on your view that Menchov had a higher ceiling than Evans. For a start Evans had sky high lab numbers so not sure how you define “ceiling”? Even in 2008 TdF on the Alpe a relatively fresh Menchov should have finished that stage much further ahead of Evans if this ceiling idea was true. Instead Menchov couldn’t follow Sastre and had to drop back. You should also know Evans was injured then after a crash on stage 9.

Plus Evans only rode the Vuelta as a consolation prize after a poor TdF - in 2009. Bonus was winning the worlds at Mendrisio together with a healthy dose of self belief.

Evans usually targeted the TdF although to the possible detriment of his palmeres as the level at the Tour was usually higher. He belatedly targeted the Giro in 2013 but was in physical decline by then.
What I meant as ceiling is Menchov was able to produce better top-end results on GT but was not as consistent as Cadel. Evans rarely dropped off contention (except 2010 TdF) but Denis could easily flop, especially mentally, or start totally unprepared. I might be biased since I always was a Menchov fan, but his head and ambition never matched his legs.

Evans also rode 2007 Vuelta and was easily beaten by Menchov. Both had ridden TdF.

It's true your take on the crash back on 2008, but then again Denis also crashed on Prato Nevoso which killed his momentum and mentally hurt him a lot - don't know phisically, but he looked super strong until that crash.
 
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