Giro d'Italia 2022 Giro d'Italia: Who is going to win? Pre-race poll.

[Fantastico]

Yates one year ago was 3rd, but most important he had a strong third week, also winning one of the most difficult stages.
He's 30 so still perfect for a GT. I really think he will battle for the victory.

That's true. But even his strong third week was inconsistent. He lost 2 and a half minutes on Bernal, 2 minutes on Caruso and more than a minute to Almeida or Carthy on the Giau stage. He has to get rid of these off-days if he wants to win the race.

 

[BigCoward]

The Giro is too draining for Yates. If he rode the Vuelta as his season goal he could have about 6 now.

 

[Andre]

The Giro is too draining for Yates. If he rode the Vuelta as his season goal he could have about 6 now.

6? Roglic would not allow that

 

[Krzysztof_O]

So the Giro is around the corner!

1. Carapaz is generally the best GT rider out of these guys with podiums at all 3 GTs over the last 3 years and he should be considered the biggest favourite. However, I consider the race to be pretty open and a few other guys have a decent shot at victory.
2. In terms of pure w/kg fests Yates is maybe on par with Pog&Rog but consistent performances over 3 week race is obviously not his best side. Still, I would give him the second best chance to win the race.
3. Landa is also in form so it's time for his second GT podium, isn't it?
4. Lopez is kinda similar to Yates - super strong on his good days (but he prefers longer climbs than Yates) and too weak on his bad days.
5. And Almeida with his chance to shine as a standalone leader (unless Pog arrives at the last moment as a super domestique to try the double). Good chance for the podium but he has to avoid a bad day (this happened last year).

And last but not least - Van der Poel! It's a public secret that he's gunning for the Tour glory (that eluded his grandpa) and Giro is his warm-up race. However, if he peaks a bit earlier he can win the race by accident (even Alberto thinks so!)

 

[Bonimenier]

Yates one year ago was 3rd, but most important he had a strong third week, also winning one of the most difficult stages.
He's 30 so still perfect for a GT. I really think he will battle for the victory.

He was a bit lucky that his off day in last year's Giro was on the day of the shortened queen stage. He would have lost minutes and minutes if it wasn't, which he even admitted to himself. He definitely has the skills to win a GT and he showed it before, but I'm more confident in him in a 1 week race.

 

[HelloDolly]

I just watched a short Landa vid and he looks in very good shape

Needs to stay out of trouble and he will podium and who knows though Carapaz is favourite for a good reason

 

[Cookster15]

Landa is an enigma and has been teasing us since 2015. Would be great to see him finally string it together but I will believe it when I see it.

Lopez needs to stop collapsing after winning major MTFs. Until I see him back up in the 3rd week I remain sceptical of him. I am also sceptical that his collapses are only explained by his hot headedness. I think he might have a physical limitation.

Simon Yates is capable but he has question marks over him ever since that Giro.

Yes Carapaz is the obvious favorite but with young Almeida the dark horse. Never discount a young rider.

 

[Red Rick]

Lopez' limitation is that he's a bad rouleur which means that on stages that get drilled harder on the flat he just does worse, and it just limits his recovery inbetween climbs.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Been telling a punting mate of mine about the MVDP podium prediction fiasco, and he's already managed to lay him for $26 for the overall win on betfair

 

[staubsauger]

Chris Froome and Geraint Thomas still possess ‘enough quality to win any race’ – Alberto Contador

Chris Froome and Geraint Thomas still possess “enough quality to win any race”, according to two-time Tour de France champion Alberto Contador.

www.eurosport.com

But Contador believes another name could be in contention for victory: Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Fenix). The Dutchman is famed for his explosive one-day prowess but is yet to finish a Grand Tour.
“It's always a game of chance,” said Contador.
“But I think Joao Almeida, Richard Carapaz and I think Mathieu Van der Poel will be in contention for the top three places in the standings, although I don't know the order but I think the three of them have a little bit more chance than the rest.”

If this was the 2022 Vuelta a Espana and VdP hadn't made it back in time for the classics thus arriving in Spain fresh and fine I wouldn't rule him out for a smart top 10. We've seen weirder things in cycling. But at the upcoming Giro d'Italia? I don't think so.

 

[Wyndbrook]

I voted for Yates, but beginning to think Bardet.

 

[Escarabajo]

Reality dictates that people look very much at results and not at all at how these results happened. Just look at who finished below him in the 2020 Vuelta and 2021 Tour.

Yeah, but the other ones are very weak compared to him. That's the reason for the high odds!. It is more relative to the others as many have said in here.

I believe that Landa, Lopez and Simon Yates are better climbers than him on a given day or week. But not for three weeks.

 

[Tonton]

Nibali will win this bike race...

2014 TdF: Froome at his peak, Contador cresting his peak, Vinnie had nothing to lose and was overlooked. Like now. He won!

Froome and Contador then, in this GT Carapaz and Simon. Carapaz and Yates are no Froome and Contador.

Can Il Squalo mitigate his shortcomings through experience and by outsmarting the contenders and pull one more heist?

This time Vincenzo doesn't have to play mind games: he's an underdog. Good news, because he's not great at it, and Carapaz wins. Remember?

It's me praying to the Gods of Cycling: give him health and good fortune,

Vai Vincenzo!!!

 

[Oldermanish]

I just watched a short Landa vid and he looks in very good shape

Needs to stay out of trouble and he will podium and who knows though Carapaz is favourite for a good reason

I like Landa but he seems to lack the attentive mental game. When he overcommits; he pays dearly.

 

[Oldermanish]

I voted for Yates, but beginning to think Bardet.

Bardet has some of the same recovery problems as Landa. Bardet needs some leash to get GC time and usually pays for the effort. I like the guy's style and wish him a good year but the Giro is tough.

 

[Pantani_lives]

I voted for Yates, but beginning to think Bardet.

I can see Bardet in the top 10, winning a stage and perhaps the KoM, but not winning the whole thing.

Yates himself is an interesting case too. He usually has a bad day (or two) in the high mountains, but many stages suit him well.

For Landa and Lopez it will be important to avoid time loss in the first two weeks. Blockhaus and the third week should suit them.

Almeida is a weird case of being over- and underrated at the same time. He's often named as underrated, but he finishes second in the poll, which seems too high to me.

Carapaz is the obvious favorite, because he has the team to control the race and no big weaknesses.

 

[Netserk]

In this poll, Lopez is underrated. He has the ability to drop everyone else on the hardest climbs.

 

[DenisMenchov]

In this poll, Lopez is underrated. He has the ability to drop everyone else on the hardest climbs.

He also tends to toss a lot of time in the stage(s) after his biggest efforts.

 

[BigCoward]

In this poll, Lopez is underrated. He has the ability to drop everyone else on the hardest climbs.

Climb singular. Has he ever delivered a knockout performance twice in a grand tour?

 

[Bonimenier]

Climb singular. Has he ever delivered a knockout performance twice in a grand tour?

Vuelta 2017?

 

[BigCoward]

Vuelta 2017?

He did win 2 stages, but one was only by 14 seconds. I wouldn't call them knockout performances. And as he wasn't a threat for the GC podium I'm not sure how much anyone cared about him.

 

[Escarabajo]

Climb singular. Has he ever delivered a knockout performance twice in a grand tour?

The problem is not doing the effort twice or three times for that matter. The problem is avoiding the bad day or minimizing losses. Additionally the positioning in some stages of week 1 is also problematic. But multiple efforts, no.

 

[Carrick-On-Seine]

I voted Other. Forza Pello!

 

[Taxus4a]

I voted Landa., I think he can win this race, although Carapaz is the main favourite and is going to be much more d.fficult than last year would have been with Bernal.

But as well, I think Bardet is main favourite. He has been second and third on le Tour, and that is another level, and the Giro is a better race for him, without Pogacar....I cant understand how lot of analist put Almeida before Bardet...Who has beat Almeida in a Grand Tour...When he has been close to the big names at the end of a Gran Tour in the mountains?? and you need that for this Giro. even Dumoulin is more favourite than Almeida.

Of copurse almedia can give and step forward,,but it is something to demostrate, no now.

 

[SafeBet]

When he has been close to the big names at the end of a Gran Tour in the mountains??

Last year.
He was arguably the strongest climber in the final week and certainly much stronger than Bardet.