Giro d'Italia 2022 Giro d'Italia: Who is going to win? Pre-race poll.

[Netserk]

Both list and order of options are derived from oddschecker.

 

[Escarabajo]

Both list and order of options are derived from oddschecker.

Including Vin(cenz)o?

 

[Netserk]

Including Vin(cenz)o?

Vin(cenz)o covers all other options. I was limited to 10 options in the poll.

 

[Jumbo Visma Fan :)]

Personally, I’m rooting for MAL to win a GT, and this will be his best shot.

 

[johnymax]

Personally, I’m rooting for MAL to win a GT, and this will be his best shot.

I'm with you here. I want MAL to win, too.

 

[Ricco']

Sometimes I don't get the odds, as having Bardet with the same value as Buchmann or below 2022 Dumoulin.

 

[sir fly]

Publicly visible votes, results unavailable without voting... I'm not participating under such undemocratic standards.

 

[OlavEH]

Voted for Carapaz.
Second favorite: Almeida
Outsiders: MAL, Landa, Yates
Question marks: The Bora guys and especially Buchmann. Him, Kelderman, Hindley and Kämna are in theory a really strong team.

 

[AlfaLum]

Voted for Landa. I think this will finally be his year after already being in a super shape last year. I think he also has a team to back him up with Bilbao, Poels, Tratnik and LLS already listed.

The lack of TTs and some of the mountain finishes will really suit him I think.

 

[glassmoon]

The brain says Carapaz, the heart says Landa... voted by brain though.

 

[Salvarani]

I have a feeling Tom Dumoulin will be good here.

He has done an old school type of preparation, like he has done in 2017 in 2018. Not racing much before, with only the Giro in mind. He is flying under the radar a bit but over three weeks of attrition... he will be up there with a chance for a podium. He will be ready for this race, I believe.

 

[Netserk]

Sometimes I don't get the odds, as having Bardet with the same value as Buchmann or below 2022 Dumoulin.

Yeah, I think there might be a mistake, as Bardet is not on the oddschecker page for the Giro. Weird. I really should have noticed that and included him in the poll instead of Geoghegan Hart.

When I look up bet365 as an example, his odds are 15, on par with Dumoulin.

 

[Netserk]

My personal ranking:

* * * * * - Carapaz
* * * * - Landa, Yates
* * * - Almeida, Lopez
* * - Bardet, Dumoulin, Hindley, Ciccone
* - Foss, Valverde, Bilbao, Kelderman, Carthy

 

[Remy55]

Voted for Carapaz.
Second favorite: Almeida
Outsiders: MAL, Landa, Yates
Question marks: The Bora guys and especially Buchmann. Him, Kelderman, Hindley and Kämna are in theory a really strong team.

The Bora guys will achieve nothing.
Kelderman was sick and now crashed at Liege, Hindley got sick before Liege.

Buchmann is interesting, a source told me despite his bad results this year he was right on track to be in best shape for Giro, but he also got sick at the end of Itzulia and lost some days of practice. He is feeling good again, but now a top 5 would be a miracle.

 

[Red Rick]

1. Carapaz, probably a default top 3 favorite, but hasn't done much this year.
2. Simon Yates, so good on his good days and too bad on his bad days. If he can not suck for 3 weeks and fly for a day or two he's the out and out favorite.
3. Almeida. Very solid top 5 bet but I don't think I've seen the improvement to put him on top of the list
4. Landa. #freelanda will live forever. No other man may get 4th place.
5. MAL. This may be his single biggest shot at a GT win. The route is very good for him. The ball is in his court, the bag is in his team.
6. Buchmann. Has he even done anything in the last 2 years? Should probably just go for stages.
7. Dumoulin. I can see him taking pink on stage 2. Dumoulin can be top 3, can be outside top 20. I just hope he wins the first ITT and has a good Giro afterwards
8. Kelderman. Never gonna eclipse that 3rd place, but I hope he goes for stages and picks one off.
9. Geoghan Hart. Can confirm meme GT winner status.
10. Vincenzo. He's the God. Obviously. Results don't matter. All we matter is if we believe.
11. Valverde. Can probably top 10 but top 5 will be hard. Hard for him to win a stage I think if he goes for GC but then the sprinty climby boy field isn't that strong here. Stage 1 looks a bit too easy for him to have a shot vs MvdP.
12. Richie Porte. Can low key get a good result. Kinda root for him to win a stage. If he wins the whole thing it is for the memes and he was the true God all along.

Spoiler

Please Vinnie do not go for 11th place in GC

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Everyone wants Landa to win. But we know what always happens. So I can't say he will

 

[OlavEH]

Almeida. Very solid top 5 bet but I don't think I've seen the improvement to put him on top of the list

Still waiting for him to have his final breakthrough. Maybe it will happen this Giro?

 

[Netserk]

While the Giro misses all three GT winners of 2021 (and all three 2nd places), I think the field is quite good at the level below that. So despite the massive amount of votes for Carapaz (understandable with his track record and his team), the race should be quite open.

 

[OlavEH]

While the Giro misses all three GT winners of 2021 (and all three 2nd places), I think the field is quite good at the level below that.

Agreed. I miss a guy like Enric Mas and perhaps one more good GC rider from Jumbo Visma , but otherwise I think the peloton is almost as good as it can be as the others are aiming for the Tour.

 

[Rackham]

I did not realize Carapaz is doing the Giro.

It seems odd considering Bernal is out of the Tour & we know Carapaz likes to build form towards his objective where he has a pretty good peak (like winning the Tour de Suisse last year before getting the podium in the Tour). We've seen nothing similar this year. Simon Yates should be favorite, even just based on his Paris-Nice form. But he then had problems in Catalunya so he hasn't had a linear progression towards the Giro either.

My bet is someone totally new (not on the list), almost unrated, but with loads of untapped potential steps up & wins. Or maybe not & Ineos just smash it like they're smashing most races this spring. But whatever happens, I don't find that list of 'favorites' particularly inspiring or offering guarantees. Beaucoup uncertainty, basically.

 

[Netserk]

I did not realize Carapaz is doing the Giro.

It seems odd considering Bernal is out of the Tour & we know Carapaz likes to build form towards his objective where he has a pretty good peak (like winning the Tour de Suisse last year before getting the podium in the Tour). We've seen nothing similar this year. Simon Yates should be favorite, even just based on his Paris-Nice form. But he then had problems in Catalunya so he hasn't had a linear progression towards the Giro either.

My bet is someone totally new (not on the list), almost unrated, but with loads of untapped potential steps up & wins. Or maybe not & Ineos just smash it like they're smashing most races this spring. But whatever happens, I don't find that list of 'favorites' particularly inspiring or offering guarantees. Beaucoup uncertainty, basically.

He only raced (and won) Asturias in the month before the Giro the two previous times he has done the Giro, and it's getting quite common to skip Romandie and Trentino, so I wouldn't put much emphasis on that.

 

[gregrowlerson]

I agree with the general consensus here that this race is wide open. It's ridiculous to me that Carapaz is being given a 50% chance to win by bookmakers. He is clearly the most consistent of the contenders, but his best isn't necessarily better, and if it is then there isn't much of a difference between he and Yates/Landa/Lopez on their good days.

Something really weird could happen, like Porte or Valverde winning; though still admittedly unlikely.

Let's see too if Hart and/or Hindley can remove the shackles of their one hit wonder tags. All in all I think this will be a fascinating race, even if the course is slightly underwhelming.

 

[SafeBet]

Bota Lume.

 

[Netserk]

Bota Lume.

I'm quite confident that he will reach the next level and fight for the win of a GT within the next 13 months, but I'm unsure if he steps up now. Currently, I think he'll get there in the Vuelta.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

The problem for Almeida is that even if he takes that next step, it's still an awful route for him.

Barring him? We only have six former GT winners here. Four of those (Nibali, Valverde, Dumoulin and TGH) are almost certainly not winning this and Yates is flaky so it's hard to look past Carapaz, but I definitely agree that the circumstances for someone surprising stepping it up and winning the whole thing. Would love for that person to be Bilbao or Landa but I can't see it.