Giro d'Italia 2022 Giro d'Italia: Who is going to win? Pre-race poll.

[gregrowlerson]

The problem for Almeida is that even if he takes that next step, it's still an awful route for him.

Barring him? We only have four former GT winners here. Two of those (Dumoulin and TGH) are almost certainly not winning this and Yates is flaky so it's hard to look past Carapaz, but I definitely agree that the circumstances for someone surprising stepping it up and winning the whole thing. Would love for that person to be Bilbao or Landa but I can't see it.

Nibali and Valverde have won GT's, or are you only talking relatively recent times (and therefore more realistic future winners)?

I find it almost impossible to see Nibali in contention, but Valverde you never know (stage race form still appears pretty good).

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Nibali and Valverde have won GT's, or are you only talking relatively recent times (and therefore more realistic future winners)?

I find it almost impossible to see Nibali in contention, but Valverde you never know (stage race form still appears pretty good).

I need to wake up.

*** it, let's heap more ridicule upon myself: Jan Hirt will continue Intermarché's crazy year by making the top-3 here.

 

[Unterlenkerfahrend]

Carapaz clear favorite simply because him and Ineos know how to aim for targets and stay consistent throughout a GT. I wouldn't be fooled by his season so far, he was similar subpar last year in spring and also had Covid but his Catalunya raid with Higuita did show that he's fully capable.
Very hard to assess MAL and Yates, in theory perfect route for them but it's just hard to bank on their consistency. Yates PN performance at least might have show promise regarding his inability to deal with cold weather - on the other hand it may simply be rain that is the problem.
I don't believe in Landa nor the Bora guys or Dumoulin. It's a shame Jumbo doesn't send Vingegaard. I reckon Almeida will be up there but I don't trust his team to be useful at all.
All in all, it's hard to see past Vincenzo taking his third crown.

 

[Cookster15]

I picked Almeida. Yes he’s an outsider but he is still only 23 and has shown steady improvement in his climbing. Everyone knows he can TT. We also know already that he can ride strong for three weeks.

 

[Laplaz]

Pout Woels will win this bike race.
On a more serious note I think his team here may be the strongest, and hopefully Bilbao will be the leader so Landa can unleash hell.

 

[Fantastico]

It seems odd considering Bernal is out of the Tour & we know Carapaz likes to build form towards his objective where he has a pretty good peak (like winning the Tour de Suisse last year before getting the podium in the Tour). We've seen nothing similar this year.

Has everyone just forgotten about Carapaz' monster break together with Higuita in Catalunya? He was also 2nd overall.

It's true that he has been inconsistent for the last few months, but I wouldn't read too much into that. At the end of last season he was simply exhausted in the Vuelta after doing the Tour and winning the Olympic Road Race. And this year, it feels like he's just slowly building up his form towards the Giro.

With his level from last Giro, I see Almeida as the second main contender. IMO López, Landa and Yates are all too inconsistent to win the race and also don't seem to be that great in dealing with pressure.

 

[YavorD]

Hard to see past Carapaz for this one, He is by far the most consistent and should have a strong team.

I like the Arernsman-Bardet duo for DSM although I don't see any of them on the podium.

And wishful thing: Pozzo on podium.. With the way IWG are riding this season, you never know

 

[Ilmaestro99]

5 stars: S.Yates, Carapaz
4 star: Landa, Superman Lopez,
3 star: Almida, Bardet, Lorenzo Fortunato
2 star: TGH, Buchman, Kelderman, Hindley
1 star: Sivakov, Porte, Valverde, Poels, Bilbao, Ciccone

8th overall: Guillaime Martin

 

[AlfaLum]

5 stars: S.Yates, Carapaz
4 star: Landa, Superman Lopez,
3 star: Almida, Bardet, Lorenzo Fortunato
2 star: TGH, Buchman, Kelderman, Hindley
1 star: Sivakov, Porte, Valverde, Poels, Bilbao, Ciccone

8th overall: Guillaime Martin

Fortunato the new Masnada? Why not Ciccone?

 

[Mayomaniac]

5 stars: S.Yates, Carapaz
4 star: Landa, Superman Lopez,
3 star: Almida, Bardet, Lorenzo Fortunato
2 star: TGH, Buchman, Kelderman, Hindley
1 star: Sivakov, Porte, Valverde, Poels, Bilbao, Ciccone

8th overall: Guillaime Martin

Overall I agree, but the Fortunato pick is pretty bold. Top 10 on the gc yes, but more is probably not in the cards.
With Ciccone I have little faith because he recently had bronchitis and had to skip the altitude training camp because of it.
He should skip the Giro, go stagehunting at the Tour and ride the Vuelta for the gc.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Overall I agree, but the Fortunato pick is pretty bold. Top 10 on the gc yes, but more is probably not in the cards.
With Ciccone I have little faith because he recently had bronchitis and had to skip the altitude training camp because of it.
He should skip the Giro, go stagehunting at the Tour and ride the Vuelta for the gc.

I didn't know about Ciccone, maybe he just want to win a stage here. But 100% he won't do anything on gc.
Fortunato will surprise

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Fortunato the new Masnada? Why not Ciccone?

Masnada would be 4 or 5 stars with this route. Ciccone isn't strong enough especially with bronchitis. I think fortunato is very exciting

 

[AlfaLum]

Masnada would be 4 or 5 stars with this route. Ciccone isn't strong enough especially with bronchitis. I think fortunato is very exciting

But you honestly think that Fortunato is the 7th favorite for winning this Giro? Honestly?

 

[Ranagazoo]

All 3 GT's last year were a bit anti-climactic in terms of the GC winner so hoping this one will be close fought to the end. I'm voting Carapaz but it will be close, MAL is definitely being underrated here and I think Bilbao will podium. Also what the hell is Buchmann doing as 6th favourite lol.

 

[hayneplane]

I think Carapaz is rightly the favourite but the odds are way too short. Yates and Landa are capable of magical days where they climb on a similar level to peak Pogacar but also prone to flakiness and jour sans.

Almeida can podium but the low ITT kms is not in his favour.

I would like to see Almeida, Landa and Bardet go well.

In terms of the odds the best value is Bilbao and Valverde as each way podium shots.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

It is extremely likely that a new record for most editions in a row without an Italian winner will be set this year (if Merckx hadn't been thrown out in '69 there might have been a longer streak back then).

I really hope one of the Italian riders has the luck and the legs to fight for the overall win, though it doesn't seem to be a real possibility at the moment.

 

[Kaptain Kool]

Masnada would be 4 or 5 stars with this route. Ciccone isn't strong enough especially with bronchitis. I think fortunato is very exciting

I can understand penalizing Masnada for not being on the Start List. But at most a 2-star deduction. Off the favorites list completely is too harsh IMHO.

 

[Extinction]

Carapez

 

[Escarabajo]

My personal ranking:

* * * * * - Carapaz
* * * * - Landa, Yates
* * * - Almeida, Lopez
* * - Bardet, Dumoulin, Hindley, Ciccone
* - Foss, Valverde, Bilbao, Kelderman, Carthy

I would switch line 2 with 3:

* * * * * - Carapaz
* * * * - Almeida, Lopez
* * * - Landa, Yates
* * - Bardet, Dumoulin, Hindley, Ciccone
* - Foss, Valverde, Bilbao, Kelderman, Carthy

 

[Escarabajo]

I agree with the general consensus here that this race is wide open. It's ridiculous to me that Carapaz is being given a 50% chance to win by bookmakers. He is clearly the most consistent of the contenders, but his best isn't necessarily better, and if it is then there isn't much of a difference between he and Yates/Landa/Lopez on their good days.

Something really weird could happen, like Porte or Valverde winning; though still admittedly unlikely.

Let's see too if Hart and/or Hindley can remove the shackles of their one hit wonder tags. All in all I think this will be a fascinating race, even if the course is slightly underwhelming.

Right there you gave yourself the answers as to why he is the heavy favorite. The rest are very good just inconsistent.

 

[greyclouds]

I'm quite confident that he will reach the next level and fight for the win of a GT within the next 13 months, but I'm unsure if he steps up now. Currently, I think he'll get there in the Vuelta.

Assuming that he will be one step above 21 Giro and doesn’t have any bad days, there’s still a question of how well UAE can be at supporting a GC rider that is not Poga - i.e. someone that just rides off everyone and could even show up without a team.

 

[hayneplane]

Assuming that he will be one step above 21 Giro and doesn’t have any bad days, there’s still a question of how well UAE can be at supporting a GC rider that is not Poga - i.e. someone that just rides off everyone and could even show up without a team.

Yeah could be an issue as they don’t seem to be riding in a disciplined way as a team in races without Pogacar.

 

[Gigs_98]

It's honestly a really interesting field. The giro often has one of the big gc stars deciding to go there as the clear favorite and then absolutely no depth behind him. This time none of the absolute top tier gc riders decided to go there but there are a lot of names on the startlist who I could see winning.

Carapaz as the favorite kind of makes sense since he is by far the best known quantity in this field. He has finished each the last 3 gt's he rode for gc on the podium and I find it very likely he will again in this one. That said, he isn't the kind of guy I would ever see as the outstanding favorite for a gt. He is very good but not great and there are multiple riders in this race who I think have a higher ceiling than him. And even if those guys don't step up I can't see him win in a dominant fashion which always makes you vulnerable to surprise attacks or losing the gc due to a bad day.

I voted Landa which is 100% a heart and not a head pick but I guess one can dream. If I had picked entirely with my head I would have gone for Carapaz but as I wrote, I wouldn't exactly feel great with that pick either. I think Yates and Almeida in particular might be very dangerous for him (even though I can much easier see them completely disappointing).

 

[postmanhat]

Hart has been removed from the start list.

Somehow, I've convinced myself that this is the other year in his career when Simon Yates, isn't Simon Yates. And even more dreamily, would love to see him and Landa battling it out in the best GT in years.

Also not sure why Bardet isn't more favoured after his showing in The Tour of The Alps. Though i don't know how many TT Kms there in the Giro this year?

 

[Bonimenier]

Can we expect Eshnar to be the biggest winner of the Giro again?