Tour de France 2023 Tour de France rest day 1 poll-Who will win the GC?

[Jumbo Visma Fan :)]

Who will win the 2023 Tour de France?

 

[DNP-Old]

The margins are small, but Pogacar is on the up and should get better due to the not so ideal preparation because of the wrist, Vingegaard trajectory is downwards. Pogacar should be the favorite now.

 

[Jumbo Visma Fan :)]

I think the two are neck and neck, but I very slightly give the advantage to Jonas. Pogi’s most favorable terrain over Jonas is this super steep stuff that Pogi destroys most people on. I think Jonas will barely carry the yellow to Paris, but I think it will change hands.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Vingegaard has the lead, Pogacar has the momentum, neither has any sense of security. That being said, Pogacar being better on 2/3 mountain stages and a side helping of bonus seconds means he's a slight favourite now. Vingegaard will either need to reverse the momentum on the big climbs or pull off a great MTT.

As for third place, I'm leaning towards Rodriguez, who I think is better suited to the Alpine climbs than today's kind of effort.

 

[Red Rick]

Vingegaard is gonna need to do a lot better. Pogacar having more punch + moto draft + bonis + better TT bike is a deadly combination.

 

[Izzyeviel]

Advantage Vingegaard. Better team, looks steady, Pog looks a bit weak (by his standards). The way this is going the GC might be won by a few seconds.

 

[KZD]

Advantage Vingegaard. Better team, looks steady, Pog looks a bit weak (by his standards). The way this is going the GC might be won by a few seconds.

If Pogačar looks a bit weak and was able to drop Vingegård twice, I can only imagine what he would do if he looked strong...

I voted Pogačar, him dropping Vingegård twice including in these gradients is a very good sign but it will likely be a tight race until the end.

 

[Nick2413]

Momentum is with Pogacar but anything can change at any time. The concern for Vingegaard is he started showing weakness after the racing was its hardest and was dropped on both the hottest and highest days, so those theories about Pog‘s weaknesses haven’t materialized yet.

Main concern for Pog imo is that he loses more time than Vingegaard when dropped, so even if he finishes ahead on 2/3 of mountain stages that might not be enough.

Don’t really buy any of the theories about Pog riding into form, I think Jonas getting past peak is more likely but overall ability to handle these 3 weeks is still the main factor.

 

[Tricycle Rider]

It's very close between Pog and Vingo right now, and I like them both. But being I can't decide I'll just go with Hindley cause I like him too! (Hopefully, at the very least, he'll come in 3rd.)

 

[Rob5091]

Either Pogacar will ride Jumbo's coat tails to win in Paris. or lewd stories of late night ice tub parties with hookers and the "Devil's Dandruff" get Jonas and Teddy banned. The later sounds more fun but probably the former.

 

[BigCoward]

Advantage Vingegaard. Better team, looks steady, Pog looks a bit weak (by his standards). The way this is going the GC might be won by a few seconds.

I mean, everyone's entitled to their opinion, but what have you been watching?

 

[JosefK]

I voted for Pogacar in the first poll and would not change the vote, although Vingegaard has been very strong. I thought Pog would be a slight favorite going into the Tour based on how good his form was before the LBL injury, his okay recovery, his lessons from the 2022 Tour, and Jumbo's lack of Roglic.

Edit: I realize the bookies made Vingo a slight favorite before the Tour started, but in my little world, Pog was still the pick to win. ... Of course, anything can happen with this great duel.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Now this is interesting. Vinge struct an early blow and leads but tendency favours Pogacar more. Its tempting to say that the TT could be crucial and UAE look good there this but OTOH they've dropped each other in every mountain stage so far so mountains are likely to be decisive.

I predict Pogacar like before the race but its hard to predict. Every day brings surprises, he was surprisingly dropped like a stone on MB and can still be beaten by Vinge on fearsome Loze, Joux Plane or probably somewhere we dont expect at all. OTOH Vinge isnt a superman he seemed after stage 5, even he can be beatable if Pog has great legs. My prediction base on tendency, assumption that MB was Pog weak day, maybe better TT setup for UAE and being cooler under pressure.

 

[Miha81]

I voted for Pogacar but it is extremely hard to call this one. If somebody would tell me that Vinge will be marginally leading after week one prior to TDF I would say that he is strong favourite to win it all. But the eye test tells me Pogi is getting better every day.

They are very evenly matched so one bad day, tactical mistake or mishap and TDF can be decided in favor of one of them.

 

[Bolder]

I'd give Marie Blanque to Vingegaard ; Cauterets to Pog; but thought that Dôme was not a disaster for Vingegaard on the type of climb that suits Pogacar better. I'm still going with Vingegaard because I think he's going to be better on Joux Plane and Loze, but it's super close right now.

 

[Rackham]

Now this is interesting. Vinge struct an early blow and leads but tendency favours Pogacar more. Its tempting to say that the TT could be crucial and UAE look good there this but OTOH they've dropped each other in every mountain stage so far so mountains are likely to be decisive.

I predict Pogacar like before the race but its hard to predict. Every day brings surprises, he was surprisingly dropped like a stone on MB and can still be beaten by Vinge on fearsome Loze, Joux Plane or probably somewhere we dont expect at all. OTOH Vinge isnt a superman he seemed after stage 5, even he can be beatable if Pog has great legs. My prediction base on tendency, assumption that MB was Pog weak day, maybe better TT setup for UAE and being cooler under pressure.

It was the all-out assault on the Tourmalet with the attempt at a Granon repeat backfiring on Cauterets which has blown some holes in Jumbo's TdF.

Context matters, not just the time gaps. In that respect, Vingegaard had a 53 second lead on Thursday morning & it's now down to 17. But it's not just the time gap either, i.e. it's the tactical situation which plays into Pogačar's hands because he's now pretty much in the driving seat from the moment Vingegaard doesn't drop him again. So it's like a re-run of the 2020 TdF when Pog just had to shadow the Jumbo yellow train.

There's nothing Jumbo can do about that either, except isolate him, i.e. because he'll always be on Vingegaard's wheel. Jumbo went for broke on the Tourmalet stage because they wanted a big gap which would have put the Tour to bed. Now their ship is leaking & I really don't see what they can do about it, i.e. there's no miracle tactic against an opponent who just has to follow the wheel of the yellow jersey before mugging him at the end of a climb (whether there's 4 Jumbos with Vingegaard or not, it doesn't change much from the moment Pog will only ever focus on Vingegaard & nothing else).

 

[Krzysztof_O]

It was the all-out assault on the Tourmalet with the attempt at a Granon repeat backfiring on Cauterets which has blown some holes in Jumbo's TdF.

Context matters, not just the time gaps. In that respect, Vingegaard had a 53 second lead on Thursday morning & it's now down to 17. But it's not just the time gap either, i.e. it's the tactical situation which plays into Pogačar's hands because he's now pretty much in the driving seat from the moment Vingegaard doesn't drop him again. So it's like a re-run of the 2020 TdF when Pog just had to shadow the Jumbo yellow train.

There's nothing Jumbo can do about that either, except isolate him, i.e. because he'll always be on Vingegaard's wheel. Jumbo went for broke on the Tourmalet stage because they wanted a big gap which would have put the Tour to bed. Now their ship is leaking & I really don't see what they can do about it, i.e. there's no miracle tactic against an opponent who just has to follow the wheel of the yellow jersey before mugging him at the end of a climb (whether there's 4 Jumbos with Vingegaard or not, it doesn't change much from the moment Pog will only ever focus on Vingegaard & nothing else).

I agree that if Pog isn't dropped from now on then he's more like a favourite to win (he can snatch seconds at the end of stages or by bonuses due to his explosivity, maybe can drop Vinge by small margin like yesterday, and is more likely to gain some TT seconds IMO). That's a big if though: Pog's tactical situation is easier this year but Vinge will make Loze and Joux Plane hard for sure and Pog can't have a weaker day then.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

I just can't see Jodej Pogagaard being beaten.

Though Tadas Vingecar could run him close.

 

[Cookster15]

Picked Pogacar. Before the Tour I picked Vingegaard. I think the warning signs are already there for Vingegaard’s level. And I have doubts he can win the Tour on stage 17. I am also picking Pog to rectify the record in the TT. Great tour so far.

 

[gregrowlerson]

So.....no more over 3.5, under 3.5 talk?

 

[Ulle97]

It's going to be extremely tight. Despite the recent resurgence of Pogacar, I think Jonas will edge it in the Alps.

In my opinion, there are 6 stages left that I can see genuine GC action!
1. Grand Colombier
2. Joux Plane
3. St. Gervais Mont Blanc
4. Combloux ITT
5. Col de la Loze- Courchevel
6. Le Markstein

PS. There's always the caveat that a flat stage could cause a crash etc.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

So.....no more over 3.5, under 3.5 talk?

Only if we're talking the amount of Tour stages he'll win in his career.

 

[Salvarani]

Where is Pinots baby goat? Mountains coming up.

 

[Gigs_98]

Felix Gall is looking dangerous.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Where is Pinots baby goat? Mountains coming up.

I believe it's spelled Baby Goatdu.