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In other words, the Vuelta will be a better test of who the best U23 riders are than Avenir itself.
The roadbook is still not publicly available despite the grand départ being only two weeks away (seriously, *** you ASO), however I have managed to track down the profiles and maps of the intermediate sprints and the final kilometres of each stage. They can be found here:
Stage 2 finale looks trickier than I thought. Not technical, but that bump at 3km to go looks like MvdPs dream if he makes it over Jaizkibel
It's the same run-in as the old San Sebastian finale, except that the finish-line is ~500 m earlier.
Guess it depends on how reduced the peloton is. If UAE torch it, I don't expect MvdP to survive.
I'm still confused about where the bonus seconds are all located.
According to the official rules book (on the website at Rules book here! )
"Time bonuses are awarded at the end of every road stage and, therefore, not in the individual time trials. The first three riders receive 10, 6 and 4 seconds, respectively. Bonus seconds will also be available at Bonus Points located at the top of mountain passes or other climbs at strategic points on the course. There are 6 Bonus Points (stages 1, 2, 5, 12, 14 and 17). These bonuses come with 8, 5 and 2 seconds for the top three riders"
Also the daily Combative award is 2,000 Euros - not to be sniffed at!
"Time bonuses are awarded at the end of every road stage and, therefore, not in the individual time trials. The first three riders receive 10, 6 and 4 seconds, respectively. Bonus seconds will also be available at Bonus Points located at the top of mountain passes or other climbs at strategic points on the course. There are 6 Bonus Points (stages 1, 2, 5, 12, 14 and 17). These bonuses come with 8, 5 and 2 seconds for the top three riders"
Also the daily Combative award is 2,000 Euros - not to be sniffed at!
Thank you. I think bonus points will make the GC race more interesting but bad luck for escapee.
I have a hard time imagining that MvdP will outperform Pogačar and Vingegaard on those Basque climbs. Maybe if Tadej is not yet on top form, and if Jonas is racing conservatively.
If Pogačar isn´t on top form, Vignegaard won´t be racing conservatively. I can see Jumbo push the pace in the opening stage to test Pog, and there won´t be many that will be alle to follow Vignegaard on that final climb. 1km @ nearly 14% maybe even to hard for Alaphilippe.
Those first two stages end with a descent to the finish so I don't suppose they'll be big gaps. Stage 5 is when we'll see who has the best legs.
A scenario I could see is Jumbo following Pogacar to see what shape he's in. Pogacar easing himself into the race seems also likely, but ... Pogacar can be like certain dogs and cars, and has a hair trigger when someone attacks so we'll see. Team UAE, having spent millions on Pogacar's team, would probably like to see them be of some use beyond being water carriers.
I honestly just can't believe people who think Pog won't be Pog as usual this TdF.
MVdP don't need to drop pogacar and vingegaard on cote de pike. He can beat the two in the final sprint.
It's not the perfect stage for Vingegaard. The first perfect stage to vingegaard do something is on the stage of tourmalet. Jumbo make everything to put van aert in the breakaway, then later in the stage jumbo starts to make the hard race on col d' aspin, and in the first 10 km of tourmalet. Then vingegaard attacks in the final 7 km of tourmalet, and if he will be able to make a good gap to pogacar, then van aert waits for Vingegaard in the top of tourmalet. Van aert helps vingegaard in the descent of tourmalet, in the valley and in the first kms of cambasque until vingegaard makes the last kms of the climb alone.
This could be a good strategy for jumbo. Tourmalet is a 50 min climb. Perfect for Vingegaard.
Why would Vingegaard go onto a long-range attack when he doesn‘t need to? Who was the last to do that, Merckx?
MVP will be dropped like a stone. Pike is way harder than the Huy. This is perfect for Pogacar if he is in top shape. Don't forget Yates can rip the peloton in pieces before Pogacar's final attack.
If he wants to try to test pogacar in the first days of the tour, it would be the better option. That's what they where talking about.
I also don't think he needs to make long range attacks. I think he just needs to follow pogacar wheels until col de la loze stage.Then, on col de la loze he can win the tour.
Carpe Diem, gotta take what you can where you can. It’s a stage tailor made for Vingegaard
They are not gonna "test" Pog on the first stage.
If he gets dropped he might as well leave the race immediately.
Some people are dreaming. Not in a million years, WVA will go to the break or pass Aspin before the main peloton.
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