2024-26 Emerging Riders CQ game

[EvansIsTheBest]

And this are the 4 last painful cuts:
Golliker
Magnier
Pescador
Tronchon

It's especially weird considering nobody picked him but Golliker was also my first alternate.

@Salvarani thanks for ruining my attempt at an unique pick with Gruel. At least I ruined your attempt at an unique pick with Gruel too

 

[Salvarani]

It's especially weird considering nobody picked him but Golliker was also my first alternate.

@Salvarani thanks for ruining my attempt at an unique pick with Gruel. At least I ruined your attempt at an unique pick with Gruel too

I saw that, but I just thought it might be a good pick then since you picked him as well.

We will see.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Looks like 40 of us have picked well.

 

[Cordi333]

Looks like 40 of us have picked well.

I would bet at the end of the game Samu is at the bottom of the table and Redhead just one spot avobe.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

So what of the comparison between how often a rider is chosen here and in the main game?

There are those who are not dead cheap in the MG, but that doesn't matter here. For example, William Lecerf is slightly more popular than Andrew August here (32 picks to 30), but with 182 points last year he is on only 13 MG teams compared to August's 53.
Others that have a similar disparity for presumably the same reason include

	Picks in MG	Picks in ER	Cost in MG
HUBY Antoine	2	17​	112​
VAN DEN BROEK Frank	3	14​	160​
PARET PEINTRE Valentin	0	4​	135​
GAUTHERAT Pierre	4	17​	148​
BERHE Welay Hagos	4	14​	134​
GRAAT Tijmen	2	7​	148​

And the same misbalance if favour of the ER game is found for the riders who will not be expected do much in Year 1, but to make up for that and more in 2025 and 26: foremost among those is PHILIPSEN Albert/PHILIPSEN WITHEN Albert/WITHEN PHILIPSEN Albert/PHILIPSEN Albert Withen (all 4 variations were submitted, I'm going with the last for now). In the same boat are riders like:

	in MG	in ER
WIDAR Jarno	3	12​
BISIAUX Léo	2	7​
CHAMBERLAIN Oscar	2	6​
SEIXAS Paul	0	2​

Rather harder to explain is why some riders eligible here were considerably more popular (even leaving aside the number of contestants) in MG than in ER, among them:

	in MG	in ER
HERZOG Emil	23	11​
VANDENABEELE Henri	21	8​
BELOKI FERNANDEZ Markel	16	7​
PICKERING Finlay	13	4​
LEONARD Michael	7	3​
LE HUITOUZE Eddy	5	2​
PICKRELL Riley	5	1​
LÜHRS Luis-Joe	4	1​

perhaps for some of these it is the case that players here do not like to pick the same riders that have let them down in previous editions.
The most popular riders in the main game that did not get chosen here are each on three teams there:

BASTIAENS Ayco

MORO Manlio

TURCONI Filippo

Maybe age was a factor in the non-selection of the first of these, but a few main game players would presumably bet on these three featuring in the Collective Ignorance list.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

EitB's comment in the 2023-25 ER thread, and my speculation above as to why riders like Herzog are more popular in the main game than here, got me thinking about those chosen last year, and still eligible this year. Are they just disappointing washouts, or should we be excited that we could have picked them for years 2 to 4 of their careers, rather than just the (presumably less lucrative) years 1 to 3.
There were some cases of a small number of players getting in early on what many of us now expect to be a good selection:

	picks in 2023-25	in 2024-26
RAFFERTY Darren	3​	35​
NORDHAGEN Jørgen	1​	22​
MILESI Lorenzo	2​	22​
BERHE Welay Hagos	1​	14​
VERGALLITO Luca	1​	11​
RONDEL Mathys	1​	7​

Some riders several people took an early risk on, perhaps expecting this year to be too late to include them

	2023-3	2024-6
MORGADO Antonio Tomas	18​	35​
CHRISTEN Jan	12​	34​
EDVARDSEN-FREDHEIM Stian	7​	11​
ROMEO ABAD Ivan	4​	8​

and some, several of us have given up hope on. Too soon?

	2023-5	2024-6
HERZOG Emil	21​	11​
QUICK Blake	10​	2​
SVRCEK Martin	16​	8​
VANDENABEELE Henri	13​	8​
PLOWRIGHT Jensen	9​	5​
TRONCHON Bastien	7​	3​

A couple have been abandoned altogether, although they still have ProTeam contracts

HEMING Mika	4​	0​
VERCHER Mattéo	4​	0​

And Alex BAUDIN, selected 6 times last year and not at all for this cycle (I considered him): I guess none of us know what to make of his news.

But that looks like an interesting sub-set: I think I'll make another statistical team, "Popular in Last Edition" to track at the bottom of the leader board, on the most popular picks last time, still eligible this time.
So that team will be:

HERZOG Emil	21​
MORGADO Antonio Tomas	18​
SVRCEK Martin	16​
ARRIETA LIZARRAGA Igor	14​
VANDENABEELE Henri	13​
CHRISTEN Jan	12​
QUICK Blake	10​
PLOWRIGHT Jensen	9​
EDVARDSEN-FREDHEIM Stian	7​
TRONCHON Bastien	7​
BAUDIN Alex	6​
ROMEO ABAD Ivan	4​
LEONARD Michael	4​
DE POOTER Dries	4​
HEMING Mika	4​
VERCHER Mattéo	4​

which is only 16 riders, so I shall add in the average of the next 4 twice to make up 18

RAFFERTY Darren	3​
SALBY Alexander	3​
LÜHRS Luis-Joe	3​
CHANGIZI Sebastian Kolze	3​

We''ll see how they do...

 

[Anderis]

Rather harder to explain is why some riders eligible here were considerably more popular (even leaving aside the number of contestants) in MG than in ER, among them:

I can explain that on the example of Herzog.

Since Herzog's price in the main game was just 4 CQ points, he was a really good filler. There may have been young riders I would've preffered to take in the main game but they were often around 100 points, so yeah, 4 points and 100 points is a big difference for main game, but for emerging riders it doesn't matter as long as the rider is under 200 points total.

 

[Cordi333]

The most popular riders in the main game that did not get chosen here are each on three teams there:

BASTIAENS Ayco

MORO Manlio

TURCONI Filippo

Maybe age was a factor in the non-selection of the first of these, but a few main game players would presumably bet on these three featuring in the Collective Ignorance list.

Personally, I don't see any of those 3 even close to make the best ignorance team.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Personally, I don't see any of those 3 even close to make the best ignorance team.

I might have read a bit too much into it I suppose: only 3 out of 94 there picked them.

But all rare picks lie somewhere along the spectrum from inspiration to idiosyncrasy: who is to say just which picks are where?

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

I can explain that on the example of Herzog.

Since Herzog's price in the main game was just 4 CQ points, he was a really good filler. There may have been young riders I would've preffered to take in the main game but they were often around 100 points, so yeah, 4 points and 100 points is a big difference for main game, but for emerging riders it doesn't matter as long as the rider is under 200 points total.

Understood, and he wasn't the most extreme example, but he only has half as many picks here as he had last year, whereas there he has more picks than last year (23 of 94 rather than 19 of 103) from a lower number of entries, and at a (very slightly) higher price.

In this game, August, Storm, Widar and Nordhagen are all more popular than he is: they are all free picks in MG, but only August is ahead of him in popularity there. So there is some difference in the selections. Which is good, because it is a different game.

 

[Anderis]

In this game, August, Storm, Widar and Nordhagen are all more popular than he is: they are all free picks in MG, but only August is ahead of him in popularity there. So there is some difference in the selections. Which is good, because it is a different game.

Widar and Nordhagen are on u-23 squads for now so that severely limits their scoring potential in the main game. Of course they're going to be more appealing over a 3 year period.

Storm wasn't announced to be on WT this year until some people have already made their provisional selection, I guess that may be affecting his popularity in the MG to an extent.

 

[laarsland]

Herzog had an underwhelming 2023 and Bora has a mixed bag of moving young riders up to their squad - Cian versus Luis-Joe Luhrs.

Both Nordhagen and Widar are in teams which actively and purposefully let their U23-riders participate for the senior squad. Both currently also look like bigger talents than Herzog.

 

[Squire]

I can explain that on the example of Herzog.

Since Herzog's price in the main game was just 4 CQ points, he was a really good filler. There may have been young riders I would've preffered to take in the main game but they were often around 100 points, so yeah, 4 points and 100 points is a big difference for main game, but for emerging riders it doesn't matter as long as the rider is under 200 points total.

For me, Herzog was an obvious pick for this game and an obvious non-pick for the main game. Heart problems last year, so I don't expect him to do much in the WT this year in what is effectively his first U23 year, but the fact remains that he is a massive talent judging by his junior results so there are good chances he might break through in the next few years.

So I agree with Armchair cyclist on that one.

Vandenabeele is a more understandable discrepancy. Makes sense to take a short-term gamble in the main game on him having overcome his long Covid issues, but having him do potentially nothing in this game for three years is a much less alluring prospect when you can choose riders who are way more likely to get at least a decent haul.

 

[Cordi333]

Herzog had an underwhelming 2023 and Bora has a mixed bag of moving young riders up to their squad - Cian versus Luis-Joe Luhrs.

Imo Cian and Luhrs always were at different levels so there's not much comparation.

Herzog is a big talent but last season hsd health problems that dragged him down. Theoretically if he's healthy now he should improve fast, but in this cases exist always certain risk of things not going right so I too dumped him from my team, to take instead riders that are in a more positive dynamic at this point in their careers.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

A lovely 15 points for my man Josh Burnett in the Gravel and Tar Classic.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

I spend the last half an hour before the deadline trying to decide which rider I could replace with Jeison Rujano, but I couldn't figure it out. Hopefully he won't go on to do well at Vuelta al Táchira.

He did end up scoring his first CQ point since the 2021 NC. Maybe he can still win the Giro, if Savio signs him.

 

[Cordi333]

He did end up scoring his first CQ point since the 2021 NC. Maybe he can still win the Giro, if Savio signs him.

Sorry to be the one telling you this awful news, but Androni folded at the end of 2022 😂

Btw, Gautherat looking like a good bet

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Sorry to be the one telling you this awful news, but Androni folded at the end of 2022 😂

But it lives on as Petrolike - Androni, which may or may not turn pro in 2025.

 

[skidmark]

I'm sad to miss this game for the first time - I told AC on PM when I realized I missed the deadline, but I had some personal stuff take me away from computer and online games last week (good thing CQ didn't post an update I guess for the main game) and just didn't think about the deadline. For my own interest, I'm gonna post the team I had selected from my regular CQ longlist so I can have some incentive to follow along:

AUGUST Andrew
BELOKI Fernandez Markel
BERHE Welay Hagos
CHRISTEN Jan
CHRISTOPHERSEN Cedrik Bakke
DEL TORO ROMERO Isaac
FAURE PROST Alexy
GELDERS Gil
HERZOG Emil
HUBY Antoine
KULSET Johannes
KYFFIN Zeb
LECERF William Junior
MORGADO Antonio Tomas
NORDHAGEN Jørgen
RAFFERTY Darren
VAN DEN BROEK Frank
VERGALLITO Luca

Good luck to all who made a team on time and are playing officially!

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

I eventually got around to doing the teams similarity tab: we have two pairs of teams that share 15 riders:
Devil's Elbow/Nyssinator
SafeBet/Squire
so the performance of some of the more marginal selections may be important to separate those.

Duos with 14 men squeezed into the intersection in their Venn diagram are:
18Valve/Devil's Elbow
Cordi/JPettersen
JonEzeitza/Peixotini
Nyssinator/SafeBet
Nyssinator/Squire

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

I'm sad to miss this game for the first time - I told AC on PM when I realized I missed the deadline, but I had some personal stuff take me away from computer and online games last week (good thing CQ didn't post an update I guess for the main game) and just didn't think about the deadline. For my own interest, I'm gonna post the team I had selected from my regular CQ longlist so I can have some incentive to follow along:

AUGUST Andrew
BELOKI Fernandez Markel
BERHE Welay Hagos
CHRISTEN Jan
CHRISTOPHERSEN Cedrik Bakke
DEL TORO ROMERO Isaac
FAURE PROST Alexy
GELDERS Gil
HERZOG Emil
HUBY Antoine
KULSET Johannes
KYFFIN Zeb
LECERF William Junior
MORGADO Antonio Tomas
NORDHAGEN Jørgen
RAFFERTY Darren
VAN DEN BROEK Frank
VERGALLITO Luca

Good luck to all who made a team on time and are playing officially!

I've added Skidmark's team to the spreadsheet, at the moment at the bottom of the table with the statistical teams so not included in the rankings. Votes for or against moving his team up into the rankings part of the table will be tallied on Sunday. If you have an opinion, post it in thread or by PM if you prefer it to be (almost) anonymous.

 

[laarsland]

I've added Skidmark's team to the spreadsheet, at the moment at the bottom of the table with the statistical teams so not included in the rankings. Votes for or against moving his team up into the rankings part of the table will be tallied on Sunday. If you have an opinion, post it in thread or by PM if you prefer it to be (almost) anonymous.

All good on my part, and can't see why anyone else would think differently. In the unlikely event of a very close battle for the podium, any points gained by the riders before the team was entered can be deducted.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

So I need Arrieta, Van den Broek and Widar to beat Milesi, Huby and Herzog, and Kulset, Arrieta, Fredheim and AWP to beat Bruttomesso, Chamberlain, Sentjens and Seixas, if I want to have a shot. Guess I will be cheering extra hard for Arrieta then.

 

[Cordi333]

In my case, my duel with JPettersen will be decided by...

Bisiaux, Romeo, VdB, Vergallito
vs
Widar, Foldager, Boven, Huby

 

[Boris98]

I've added Skidmark's team to the spreadsheet, at the moment at the bottom of the table with the statistical teams so not included in the rankings. Votes for or against moving his team up into the rankings part of the table will be tallied on Sunday. If you have an opinion, post it in thread or by PM if you prefer it to be (almost) anonymous.

No problem for me. It will however mean that my only unique pick Zeb Kyffin will not be as unique anymore. I don't know anything about him, so maybe feel a little bit of relief that Skidmark is also including him.