2024-26 Emerging Riders CQ game

[jon ezeitza]

More than half of the team has fallen apart. They're a long way from achieving the points they earned last season. Except for the riders who are on most of the teams, only Harold López, Igor Arrieta, and Lorenzo Milesi have surpassed last year's score. I'll continue to lose places in the rankings .

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

End of year 2: 22nd Sept to 25 Oct (assuming little to no change hereafter)

If there were any doubt about the star rider of this cohort, it is removed now. But effectively null in the game as only two teams (the bottom two) didn't select him. The guy who won 9 stages is the month is overshadowed.

DEL TORO ROMERO Isaac	664​	41​	World Champs TT5th, RR 7th; Emilia/Piemonte/Veneto wins, Lombardia 5th; Nat's double win
MAGNIER Paul	329​	20​	4 stage wins in Croatia, 5 in Guangxi
SEIXAS Paul	246​	2 (18 Valve and Squire)​	2nd in WC TTT, 13th in WC RR, 3rd in Euros, 9th in Lombardia
WITHEN PHILIPSEN Albert	168​	9​	Emilia 10th, Tre Valli 2nd, Paris-Tours 3rd
KULSET Johannes	124​	25​	top tens in Agostino/Tre Valli/Tessile e Moda/Veneto
DE SCHUYTENEER Steffen	122​	2 (Los Brolin, RhD)​	Taihu Lake GC 3rd
RONDEL Mathys	120​	7​	Tessile e Moda 2ndm Japan Cup 4th
NORDHAGEN Jørgen	102​	23​	GC 5th in Guangxi

The top two in the overall are the top two in this update's scores:

1	Squire	1776​
2	SafeBet	1743​
3	Nyssinator	1730​
4	DevilsElbow	1639​
5	Salvarani	1616​
6	18Valve	1576​
7	Anderis	1534​
8	AmisVelo	1513​
9	Nakazar	1489​
10	Karaev	1452​
11	JumboVismaFan	1432​
12	RoteLaterne	1411​
13	EvansIsTheBest	1334​
14	Fivezzz	1333​
14	Kazistuta	1333​
16	Berflamand	1330​
17	Madrazo	1318​
18	Armchair_Cyclist	1274​
19	Hfgon1	1251​
20	Bminchow	1228​
21	Blues_in_the_Bottle	1218​
22	Boris98	1197​
23	Skidmark	1187​
24	Ingsve	1182​
25	Josedin	1149​
26	Cordi	1117​
27	JPettersen	1107​
28	Leadbelly	1101​
29	Houdini	1089​
30	Laurens147	1072​
31	Ray10	1067​
32	DJW	1042​
33	LosBrolin	1037​
34	Laarsland	1016​
35	Vladimir	1008​
36	Riverside	986​
37	JonEzeitza	950​
37	LarryLangosta	950​
39	Rufs	949​
40	Peixotini	931​
41	DJSprtsch	889​
42	RedheadDane	303​
43	SamuCuenca	123​
	CollectiveWisdom	1475​
	CollectiveIgnorance	638​
	MainGame2024	1289​
	Goodin2023	1068​
	PopularLastEdition	414​

End of Year 2 standings
(with the possibility of minor adjustments)

Very little between the top two in this batch of scores: those following them lost a bit of ground, but these are very closable gaps.

1​	Squire	14345	(-)
2​	SafeBet	14262	(-)
3​	DevilsElbow	14078	(-)
4​	RoteLaterne	13747	(-)
5​	Nakazar	13576	(+1)
6​	Salvarani	13561	(+1)
7​	Anderis	13431	(+1)
8​	Nyssinator	13238	(+3)
9​	JonEzeitza	13202	(-4)
10​	Cordi	12992	(-1)
11​	18Valve	12949	(+3)
12​	AmisVelo	12928	(+1)
13​	Leadbelly	12850	(-3)
14​	Armchair_Cyclist	12755	(-2)
15​	Karaev	12709	(-)
16​	JumboVismaFan	12634	(+1)
17​	EvansIsTheBest	12554	(-1)
18​	Kazistuta	12358	(+1)
19​	Madrazo	12323	(+1)
20​	JPettersen	12269	(-2)
21​	Ray10	12030	(-)
22​	Berflamand	11962	(+3)
23​	Hfgon1	11950	(+1)
24​	Houdini	11822	(-1)
25​	Riverside	11735	(-3)
26​	Blues_in_the_Bottle	11672	(+1)
27​	Rufs	11490	(-1)
28​	Bminchow	11471	(-)
29​	Boris98	11318	(-)
30​	Laarsland	11082	(-)
31​	Ingsve	11058	(+1)
32​	Skidmark	10955	(+1)
33​	Peixotini	10833	(-2)
34​	Fivezzz	10678	(+1)
35​	DJW	10503	(-1)
36​	Vladimir	10195	(-)
37​	DJSprtsch	9828	(-)
38​	Laurens147	9774	(-)
39​	LosBrolin	9721	(-)
40​	LarryLangosta	9394	(-)
41​	Josedin	8923	(-)
42​	SamuCuenca	3849	(-)
43​	RedheadDane	3816	(-)
	CollectiveWisdom	13565
	CollectiveIgnorance	10149
	MainGame2024	12028
	Goodin2023	11846
	PopularLastEdition	7764

At some stage I'll do an assessment of rider scores. It'll largely be a list of in-game records broken by Del Toro.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

I have every single one of the big scorers this month bar the super-rare Seixas and De Schuyteneer and I still lost ground to both teams ahead of me, yikes. On the plus side, the chances of me extending my trackrecord of 100% top-5 finishes to a third edition seem solid.

 

[Squire]

I have every single one of the big scorers this month bar the super-rare Seixas and De Schuyteneer and I still lost ground to both teams ahead of me, yikes. On the plus side, the chances of me extending my trackrecord of 100% top-5 finishes to a third edition seem solid.

I should have doubled down on the 2nd year juniors and picked AWP too, not just Seixas. But Seixas is leading that race so far.

Mine and @SafeBet's teams in 1st and 2nd place are remarkably similar. It's just Widar, Fredheim and Seixas for me vs Arrieta, Nerurkar and AWP for SafeBet. At the moment I'd take my trio.

 

[SafeBet]

I should have doubled down on the 2nd year juniors and picked AWP too, not just Seixas. But Seixas is leading that race so far.

Mine and @SafeBet's teams in 1st and 2nd place are remarkably similar. It's just Widar, Fredheim and Seixas for me vs Arrieta, Nerurkar and AWP for SafeBet. At the moment I'd take my trio.

I'd take your trio as well. I don't think I have a path to win this game unless Seixas has issues next year.
But yeah, extremely similar teams!

 

[Samu Cuenca]

I had close to an 800 point lead over RhD after year one and at the beginning of March it had grown to nearly 1000 points, but now it's almost entirely evaporated. It feels like being the manager of Wanty, but without having some Belgian suckers wanting to bail me out.

 

[Cordi333]

The abstract of this game for me will be "no Magnier no party" :'(

 

[RedheadDane]

I had close to an 800 point lead over RhD after year one and at the beginning of March it had grown to nearly 1000 points, but now it's almost entirely evaporated. It feels like being the manager of Wanty, but without having some Belgian suckers wanting to bail me out.

My guys have finally realised they're supposed to be emerging.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Year 2, late October to the year end

A handful of scorers since the official end of the season, which of course is not the end of the year.

DEL TORO ROMERO Isaac	45pts from the Double in the Mexican national championships​	41 teams: everyone except the last two​
NIYONKURU Samuel	16 for 4th in African championships RR​	1 for Samu Cuenca, one of the teams without DelToro​
CHUMIL GONZALEZ Sergio Geovani	15 from Central American games RR win and TT 3rd​	1: another of Samu's 12 unique picks​
KOGUT Oded	4 for 4th at the national TT championship​	3 for Boris, Leadbelly and Ray​
AMARI Hamza	2 from 3rd in mixed TTT relay in African championship​	2 for DJSprtsch and, yet again, Samu.​

So a very narrow range of scores, and no changes in position. We go into the last year thus:

1​	Squire	14390
2​	SafeBet	14307
3​	DevilsElbow	14123
4​	RoteLaterne	13792
5​	Nakazar	13621
6​	Salvarani	13606
7​	Anderis	13476
8​	Nyssinator	13283
9​	JonEzeitza	13247
10​	Cordi	13037
11​	18Valve	12994
12​	AmisVelo	12973
13​	Leadbelly	12899
14​	Armchair_Cyclist	12800
15​	Karaev	12754
16​	JumboVismaFan	12679
17​	EvansIsTheBest	12599
18​	Kazistuta	12403
19​	Madrazo	12368
20​	JPettersen	12314
21​	Ray10	12079
22​	Berflamand	12007
23​	Hfgon1	11995
24​	Houdini	11867
25​	Riverside	11780
26​	Blues_in_the_Bottle	11717
27​	Rufs	11535
28​	Bminchow	11516
29​	Boris98	11367
30​	Laarsland	11127
31​	Ingsve	11103
32​	Skidmark	11000
33​	Peixotini	10878
34​	Fivezzz	10723
35​	DJW	10548
36​	Vladimir	10240
37​	DJSprtsch	9875
38​	Laurens147	9819
39​	LosBrolin	9766
40​	LarryLangosta	9439
41​	Josedin	8968
42​	SamuCuenca	3882
43​	RedheadDane	3816
	CollectiveWisdom	13610
	CollectiveIgnorance	10149
	MainGame2024	12073
	Goodin2023	11893
	PopularLastEdition	7764

Spreadsheet

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

On the basis of the average of completed games, we have scored 58% of the points we will get. But the last 42% will be the decisive ones.

I said above that any analysis of riders' contributions to the game would be largely about Del Toro:

• Since CQ has been going (~ since the millennium), only 13 riders have reached 3000 points during this three year emergent period: Del Toro did that in a year.
• Only 4 riders previously reached 4000 in the three years: Del Toro did it in three years that included a low scoring first year such that he is still eligible for a further year.
• He only needs to score 52 to join the 4000 group in this edition, and only 740 to overhaul De Lie's record.
• The best ever score after 2 years was De Lie with 3154, although had the game been running, Valverde would have had 3503 in a 2003-05 edition: Del Toro has 3948, way ahead of both.

He is, however, almost entirely irrelevant in this game: only two teams don't have him, and they are the bottom pair adrift by more than 5000.

So who are the riders that do matter

Top scorers over the two years:

DEL TORO ROMERO Isaac	3948​	41​
MAGNIER Paul	1917​	20​
JEANNIERE Emilien	1787​	0​
CHRISTEN Jan	1358​	35​
BRENNAN Matthew	1261​	1 (Redhead Dane)​
MORGADO Antonio Tomas	1046​	36​
BLACKMORE Joseph	1002​	2 (Leadbelly, Riverside)​
SILVA COUSSAN Guillermo Thomas	985​	1 (Samu Cuenca)​
CHRISTEN Fabio	955​	3​
LOPEZ GRANIZO Harold Martin	922​	3​
BAUDIN Alex	893​	0​
ROMEO ABAD Ivan	807​	8​
LECERF William Junior	804​	33​
PARET PEINTRE Valentin	767​	4​
VAN DEN BROEK Frank	722​	15​
KULSET Johannes	698​	25​
DEL GROSSO Tibor	693​	1 (Amis Velo)​
TRONCHON Bastien	668​	3​
FOLDAGER Anders	666​	6​
SEIXAS Paul	661​	2​
GAUTHERAT Pierre	650​	17​
MIQUEL DELGADO Pau	631​	0​
GRUEL Thibaud	620​	2​

Magnier and Jeanniere are 13th and 14 in the list of points accrued two years into a game, so they are very significant, just a bit overshadowed in this round.

A few riders showing that getting in a year early can be well worthwhile: Brennan, Del Grosso, Seixas and Gruel are all in the 2025-27 game.

Not so many unpicked riders among these(Collective Ignorance would be 36th, by a long way its worst performance): Collective Wisdom is in virtual 6th place at the end of year 2 for the 5th time in the 11 editions, which is an odd statistical quirk.
There are a number of popular picks among these 600+ scorers, but we should also recognise that enough of us went for the likes of Theodore Storm (5 points so far) and Alexy Faure Prost (73) for them to be in the collective wisdom.

The two highest unique picks are from the two non-Del Toro teams.

The top eighteen, as far down as Tronchon, would constitute the best possible at the end of Year 2. They are at 21233 at the turn of the year, the highest that metric has been at this point (Del Toro helps...) Squire is at 67.6%, which is very much in line with where leaders have typically been at this point.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

If we were to only look at Year 2 points, our table would be:

			gains since end Y1
1​	Squire	10031​	(+12)
2​	DevilsElbow	9810​	(+12)
3​	SafeBet	9699​	(+1)
4​	Nyssinator	9427​	(+20)
5​	RoteLaterne	9247​	(+1)
6​	AmisVelo	9168​	(+18)
7​	Nakazar	9124​	(+4)
8​	Salvarani	9106​	(+2)
9​	Anderis	9096​	(+4)
10​	18Valve	8935​	(+10)
11​	JumboVismaFan	8609​	(+4)
12​	Karaev	8575​	(+2)
13​	Cordi	8489​	(-6)
14​	Armchair_Cyclist	8449​	(-)
15​	Kazistuta	8426​	(+8)
16​	EvansIsTheBest	8300​	(-1)
17​	Madrazo	8280​	(-1)
18​	Hfgon1	8141​	(+6)
19​	Blues_in_the_Bottle	7970​	(+7)
20​	Berflamand	7954​	(-)
21​	Bminchow	7895​	(+8)
22​	JonEzeitza	7864​	(-8)
23​	JPettersen	7800​	(-14)
24​	Houdini	7790​	(-5)
25​	Riverside	7764​	(-)
26​	Leadbelly	7695​	(-11)
27​	Laarsland	7612​	(+7)
28​	Boris98	7603​	(+2)
29​	Ray10	7603​	(-11)
30​	Fivezzz	7428​	(+5)
31​	Ingsve	7349​	(+1)
32​	Skidmark	7135​	(-5)
33​	Rufs	7021​	(-21)
34​	Vladimir	6553​	(-2)
35​	DJW	6507​	(-12)
36​	Peixotini	6501​	(-21)
37​	LosBrolin	6321​	(-1)
38​	LarryLangosta	6276​	(-)
39​	Josedin	6268​	(-)
40​	Laurens147	6148​	(-3)
41​	DJSprtsch	5840​	(-13)
42​	RedheadDane	2835​	(-)
43​	SamuCuenca	2108​	(-)
	CollectiveWisdom	8895​
	CollectiveIgnorance	5486​
	MainGame2024	8321​
	Goodin2023	7523​
	PopularLastEdition	4593​

The top 15 all beat the previous highest Y2 score, but Ray 10 in the 2022-24 version didn't have a 3000 point rider to draw upon.


And the riders' scores just in Y2:

DEL TORO ROMERO Isaac	3058​	41​
MAGNIER Paul	1512​	20​
BRENNAN Matthew	1115​	1​
JEANNIERE Emilien	918​	0​
CHRISTEN Jan	811​	35​
LOPEZ GRANIZO Harold Martin	714​	3​
SEIXAS Paul	661​	2​
MORGADO Antonio Tomas	635​	36​
DEL GROSSO Tibor	598​	1​
ROMEO ABAD Ivan	588​	8​
KULSET Johannes	575​	25​
CHRISTEN Fabio	568​	3​
SILVA COUSSAN Guillermo Thomas	563​	1​
LECERF William Junior	518​	33​
GRUEL Thibaud	480​	2​
WITHEN PHILIPSEN Albert	459​	9​
FRIGO Marco	454​	5​
RONDEL Mathys	450​	7​
TSARENKO Kyrylo	448​	0​
SALBY Alexander	437​	1​
TRONCHON Bastien	411​	3​
DELBOVE Joris	392​	0​
LANGELLOTTI Victor	383​	0​