Agree about the last point that much of his wins were a result of steamrollering the opposition and winning solo much as Remco did in the juniors which is hard to replicate in the pro ranks unless you are generationally special.
- Sep 26, 2020
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Due to my self-imposed rule of not wanting to have the same riders in multiple games at a time, I purposely included one of them in the Main Game and the other one here. Now it may very well prove to be a stupid choice to go with Filippo for this, but if Mattia ends up having more of a Markel Beloki kind of rookie season he'll still be available for next year's ERG. Speaking of Beloki, I have only had him in the 2024 Main Game and in last year's Vuelta game, so he would have been available, but I decided to give a second chance to a different 2024 MG pick in math wizard Yago Aguirre.
On the topic of riders with similar names, I did consider selecting Samuel Fernández Heres since I have the other Samuel Fernández in the 2024-26 game. They used to be teammates at Samu's MMR Academy team, so I assume they've tried being mistaken for one another.
Which is something that also happened to Seff Van Kerckhove.
- Mar 22, 2010
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I've managed to do the task for which I wish that @Shakes was in this game: I've done the copying and pasting marathon to generate the Team similarity table.
The highest overlap is 14 (Qazaqstan and Squire)
13: Bminchow-Devil's Elbow; Bminchow-Skidmark; Madrazo-Qazaqstan
12: Bminchow-Madrazo; Bminchow-Qazaqstan; Bminchow-SafeBet; Madrazo-Squire;
That, and everything else knowable at this stage, is in the spreadsheet here.
But the fun of a game is what is not knowable at the beginning. I'll aim to update early each month.
The highest overlap is 14 (Qazaqstan and Squire)
13: Bminchow-Devil's Elbow; Bminchow-Skidmark; Madrazo-Qazaqstan
12: Bminchow-Madrazo; Bminchow-Qazaqstan; Bminchow-SafeBet; Madrazo-Squire;
That, and everything else knowable at this stage, is in the spreadsheet here.
But the fun of a game is what is not knowable at the beginning. I'll aim to update early each month.
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Oops, I am that '1' that still has both Kajamini and Svrcek.
I fear my rather big lead in this table is not good news at all but rather proof that I don't follow the youth scene (and cycling in general) nearly enough to be a relevant factor in these kind of games. I still enjoy playing them though and reading everyones way more knowledgeable analysis.
But hey, it looks like I'm the first leader on the board so I'll take that as it's probably going to be the only time it happens.
- Sep 2, 2011
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Word from Finn and Donati is Magagnotti was already dropping the pros during the first team training camp.
Which is no guarantee he'll score many points in his first year (or ever) but yeah the guy has insane power numbers.
- Sep 2, 2011
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I share your opinion on Thornley, and I would extend it to Tuckwell as well.
At the same time I can understand why in an edition with very limited amount of proven riders to choose from, you might want a couple of "safe" picks that you're at least sure are good enough to be pros.
That's the reason why I had riders like Novak, De La Calle and Turconi in my shortlist despite not necessarily believing they're elite talents. In the end I picked only one of them (Turconi) and decided for Karl Herzog as my 18th rider, but I would probably go for a more conservative strategy if I hadn't won this game before.
- Mar 22, 2010
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And after an underwhelmong prologue, he was one of only 4 guys to lose time today.
He's not going to justify his 20 picks in this event, but I'm one of those who hopes he will make up for it over the next 33 months.
That's surely cause he's been working at the front of the peloton, as the other 3 guys you mentioned (all of them are good rouleurs). I don't think in this game you should choose every rider hoping they will be world class talents at top level. You can also choose good riders that simply you think can score good. And Thornley sure will have some opportunities down the road, probably in the classics where Red Bull isn't as deep (now has become mostly a GC team).
About the "too many leaders at Red Bull" that they say also about Tuckwell... well they have a point but I think is more important to focus on talent than in which team they land (as far as you know they are going to be pros). If there are too many strong riders in one team, some of them will eventually move to another team. See last season with Ayuso for example.
- Dec 28, 2010
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But I think the main argument, at least for me, is that I don't rate the talent of Thornley and Tuckwell that highly, considering they only really performed as 'old' U23s. But one benefit to turning pro that late is that they presumably will have an easier time settling in quickly even if they might not have that much development left.
But you are the master of this type of game, so your opinions are always interesting to read!
I have also selected some that I don't think are world class talents but I think they can score decently across three years. Like Turconi and De La Calle, two riders that @SafeBet mentioned as 'safe' picks. But for me they are a bit more exciting than Tuckwell or Thornley, because they will have more opportunities. And part of it is of course also that I'd love to see them do well, and I don't really care too much about the Red Bull pair.
In terms of riders I'm worried about not having, the likes of Lindholm, Herzog, Barry are surely more scary than T&T. And now also Magagnotti, when I read all the hype about him! Don't think I've really noticed him before. As I'm mostly just looking at results, I probably wouldn't be too convinced by just seeing some Italian junior calendar dominance. I'm curious if you guys have any tips on how to follow junior cycling more closely? Are you mainly just following riders/teams on socials and paying close attention to the tiny bit of coverage there is on junior races? Or are there some other good sources I'm not aware of?
There's not a magic recipe to do well here. In the end you can only select 18 riders and see how they do over 3 years
In my case, some editions a lay more on youngster and others in more experienced riders, but I usually try to take different profiles to try to cover it all. Obviously a junior star is more exciting, but also a late bloomer with a good progression over his u23 years is interesting too. I think here the key is progression, if you see they are growing and they are in a good dinamic, you can choose them. Both Thornley and Tuckwell grew a lot last season, although I wasn't completely sold in them (as usually happens with older u23) but as the 2007 cohort wasn't the most exciting I finally made room for them...
Also I made room for even more odd picks like Huber (huge gamble with almost no background), Boichis (also a huge gamble, could end bad if he sticks to mtb) or veterans that already showed things at WT level despite being still under 200 cq points (Pickering cause had a bad dynamic after a great 1st year u23 but looks again on the right track, Verstrynge cause comes from cx). But maybe the older riders are more risky cause if they have a upside that means that they arrived late for the sport, do other disciplines or had some issues, so that's not you typical linear progression you can see in young stars that have been rocking it since u19s.
In fact, the 2 editions I've won the game are so far the 2 editions I bet on more younger riders. This year is for me an outlier in the older side so maybe I didn't nail it laying so much in older riders, we'll see.
PD: for the juniors is mostly social + results. No secret there for my side haha
- Sep 2, 2011
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I reckon Barry is a major gamble, The hype when he entered the junior ranks was unreal and I gotta say it's still the main reason why I picked him, but as you stated in a previous post, he's really not the type of rider who should score massively in his first couple of years among the pros (and he's not turning pro until 2027 at least).
Herzog looked incredible in year 1 as a junior but there are at least two red flags here: his brother struggling as soon as he turned pro AND the ridiculous Grenke dominance, which makes evaluating their riders almost impossible (hello Noah Lindholm!).
As for how to follow juniors I second @Cordi333's take: a few IG / X accounts are very informative. Plus DNP-OLD / Coffeplanter whenever he feels like sharing his knowledge with us mortals...
- Dec 28, 2010
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Yeah, the Grenke dominance is why I didn't pick any of the Grenke riders. They seem to be much more professionalized than others like Agostinacchio who has been coached by his dad. And when they just Gewiss-Ballan a lot of races and probably abuse their numbers a bit tactically, it's hard to know what their real level is. Lindholm obviously seems very, very good, but he's not only a Grenke rider, he's also a January kid. And then there's the injury that toby mentioned in the main game thread. Herzog has at least performed really well while still being among the youngest in the peloton, so he might be a legit super talent. But with one year left in juniors and all the Grenke factors, I didn't feel the absolute need to pick him. He also hasn't shown as much as Seixas did. Herzog wasn't too solid on the MTF in Valromey.
But the best juniors, and now even the best 1st year juniors, have historically been very good picks for this game, so it's still a bit of a gamble not having any of them.
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