3 reasons why menchov will not do much this year

[Thee_chisa]

1 - the pavé. denis won't like that and will either be on his arse or taking it steady and losing time.

2 - stages 9 and 15 have quick mountain descents where menchov will lose time - he isn't fond of going downhill.

3 - he always has a bad day. i reckon he might win the morzine stage but lose time in the pyrenees possible stage 16 or 17. if he struggles on 16 he could lose a lot of time as the cols are a good distance from the finish and if he is secluded by blowing on the aubisque he will have to work hard to get home with whoever is around him.

 

[Ripper]

A 4th reason

A 4th reason would be no more Human Plasma

 

[BullsFan22]

I think Menchov will do well. Who knows though. He has been sick lately, and hasn't done as much racing as in the past, although he did well in Romandie and a few other races earlier in the season. The thing for him is to stay in a rhythm and stay on his bike. If you look at his TDF in 2008, he was one of the fittest guys, but he also lost a lot of valuable time on the downhill portions (stage 16 or 17), fell right after he attacked at Prato Nevoso, and just had some misteps in one or two stages that he lost valuable seconds. He has to stay in touch. He was in pretty bad shape last year in the Tour, probably due to expanding physical and mental energy in the Giro. It's gonna be tough for him, at least he could go for stage wins if all else fails. His team is gonna have to be good as well, Gesing and one or two others should help him in the mountains, but the rest is up to him. He has won 3 GT's so he is capable of winning. Oh, and he needs to attack, if he is feeling good. No more wheel sucking! LOL.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

I have to like Denny's chances to take a stage, and hang tough in a few others, but I don't see him making the podium for the reasons you say. I don't see him winning the stage to Morzine unless he's somehow 5+ minutes behind going into it and gets into a break. I think Contador is going to attack there and try to toy with Armstrong and break him, even humiliate him, though the pitch may not be hard enough for anyone to get big enough gaps.

I like Menchov's chances more on the later climbs, such as Stages 16 or 17, though not the Tourmalet. Contador will look to completely crush everyone that day.

Despite Ripper's comment, there's likely truth there, sorry to say. But he's not the only one, just one with a scandal attached to his name.

Overall, I hope he does well and stays out of trouble.

 

[klmorgan]

1 - the pavé. denis won't like that and will either be on his arse or taking it steady and losing time.

2 - stages 9 and 15 have quick mountain descents where menchov will lose time - he isn't fond of going downhill.

3 - he always has a bad day. i reckon he might win the morzine stage but lose time in the pyrenees possible stage 16 or 17. if he struggles on 16 he could lose a lot of time as the cols are a good distance from the finish and if he is secluded by blowing on the aubisque he will have to work hard to get home with whoever is around him.

You are right about his decending ability - unless it is has significantly improved there are days that he will loose time (likely to be seconds, but they will add up).

Condador and the other GT condenders will not let him slip away to win a stage, until he has lost significant time, and he therefore may struggle to win even a stage

 

[Jan the Man]

Menchov is a threat. I think on form he might be Contador's toughest rival. Having said that I don't think he'll have it this year. Surprised if he didn't finish between 3 - 5.

 

[theyoungest]

3 - he always has a bad day.

Does he? blablabla

 

[Jan the Man]

Does he? blablabla

Perhaps in Tour de France...

 

[la.margna]

3 - he always has a bad day. i reckon he might win the morzine stage but lose time in the pyrenees possible stage 16 or 17. if he struggles on 16 he could lose a lot of time as the cols are a good distance from the finish and if he is secluded by blowing on the aubisque he will have to work hard to get home with whoever is around him.

He did win a Grant Tour last year (the Giro) without having a bad day. So "always" is incorrect. Let's hope this will also be incorrect for this Tour as well, which would be excellent for a thrilling 2010 Tour edition with a rather lame profile. Of course, he hasn't shown much convincing races this year, but maybe this is just an indication that he has a strong focus on this year's Tour... We will know more in a few weeks time.

 

[SpartacusRox]

Does he? blablabla

Nah, Denny will be fine as long as he doesn't have to ride downhill, ride in the wet or go around any 90 degree corners on his TT bike.

 

[Angliru]

You are right about his decending ability - unless it is has significantly improved there are days that he will loose time (likely to be seconds, but they will add up).

Condador and the other GT condenders will not let him slip away to win a stage, until he has lost significant time, and he therefore may struggle to win even a stage

Oddly enough though didn't Menchov really surprise everyone with his performance in last year's really techinical and challenging ITT that included a highly technical descent? Not an extended mountain descent but a technical one nonetheless that he aced. He has it in him to do well, just needs to maintain his focus for a longer period.

Edit: I was referring to the much publicized ITT in last year's Giro that Menchov won.

 

[theyoungest]

Nah, Denny will be fine as long as he doesn't have to ride downhill, ride in the wet or go around any 90 degree corners on his TT bike.

Amazing how a multiple GT winner (and excellent time trialist) is repeatedly buried under a heap of clichés.

 

[Kwibus]

Amazing how a multiple GT winner (and excellent time trialist) is repeatedly buried under a heap of clichés.

True, but do you expect him to do well? I for sure do not.

 

[theyoungest]

True, but do you expect him to do well? I for sure do not.

Don't know, he only seems to perform if the whole team is working for him, and him only. Which they definitely won't. But these cycling forum truisms about his bike handling skills are boring.

 

[Nicoper]

Denis Menchov does not win Grand Tours on even years.

Best of luck to him and may all his rivals dismiss him as people on this forum.

 

[The Hitch]

He looked good in Romandie, coming second in a decent field. I think he will do well in the tour. Dont underestimate him.

 

[Bernardus]

Denis Menchov does not win Grand Tours on even years.

But his best performances in the Tour are in even years.

 

[SpartacusRox]

Amazing how a multiple GT winner (and excellent time trialist) is repeatedly buried under a heap of clichés.

Its called humour. Are you telling me that him falling off in the final Giro TT last year and then coming off in the dry at last years TdF TT were not comical in the tragic sense?? Couple that with the time he always seems to lose on downhills...

Yeah he has won two GT's but ones without the top 5 riders competing. Different story with AC and the others present.

 

[TheDude]

If the guy could finish one grand tour without falling off his bike, I think he would win. I like Denny, but his handeling skills aren't much better than mine.

 

[Francois the Postman]

Amazing how a multiple GT winner (and excellent time trialist) is repeatedly buried under a heap of clichés.

One who could afford to fall of his bike in the final TT and still win a GT comfortably. (Evans, look and learn, look and learn).

 

[Francois the Postman]

Yeah he has won two GT's but ones without the top 5 riders competing. Different story with AC and the others present.

Three, but who is counting? It wasn't against real opposition, just non-top-5 soft peddlers like these Sastre, Sanchez, Di Luca, Pellizotti, Basso and Evans fellas, who also weren't challenging hard to win.

They didn't show up and he won. End of story for me really, as it would otherwise trigger endless what-if discussions. What if the others had shown up in all these to compete for real? Would they still be as fit to snatch the same TdF places? What if Menchov hadn't (and also had spared the legs in his team too)? Would Rabo have managed to squeeze more out of the TdFs if they had targeted just those?

No-one flukes his way to 3 GTs, and certainly not one which was arguably the hardest GT that year. But it seems you can win 3 without people even noticing, much. His mistake for not having English as a first language, or Ozzie blood. We wouldn't hear the end of it then. A Russian on a Dutch team. That defines "under the radar", no? I mean, come on, the guy hasn't even been able to bag a cool nickname yet. Tsss...

 

[SpartacusRox]

Three, but who is counting? It wasn't against real opposition, just non-top-5 soft peddlers like these Sastre, Sanchez, Di Luca, Pellizotti, Basso and Evans fellas, who also weren't challenging hard to win.

They didn't show up and he won. End of story for me really, as it would otherwise trigger endless what-if discussions. What if the others had shown up in all these to compete for real? Would they still be as fit to snatch the same TdF places? What if Menchov hadn't (and also had spared the legs in his team too)? Would Rabo have managed to squeeze more out of the TdFs if they had targeted just those?

No-one flukes his way to 3 GTs, and certainly not one which was arguably the hardest GT that year. But it seems you can win 3 without people even noticing, much. His mistake for not having English as a first language, or Ozzie blood. We wouldn't hear the end of it then. A Russian on a Dutch team. That defines "under the radar", no? I mean, come on, the guy hasn't even been able to bag a cool nickname yet. Tsss...

Sorry I didn't mean to imply that his victories were not worthy, they were, and I agree, 'what if' discussions are meaningless. However, the TdF is not a 'what if' question as he has generally underachieved in it. Last year it was undoubtedly due to fatigue from the Giro. This year that will not be a factor, I just don't think he has it against the leading contenders in a number of areas, team strength included.

 

[Horizon Deep]

How about Gesink being Rabo's main man at the tour? He's not great going downhill but at least he doesn't fall off going up them!

 

[Bala Verde]

Does anyone know for sure: doesn't Menchov prefer the Pyrenees and hasn't he had better results there as well? I also always seem to believe he does better when it's very hot. So the last week, could/should be his better week?

 

[blaxland]

Reasons why Menchov will not do much this year;
1=He never does a good TDF for overall
2=Rabobank is undecided on who is team Leader.(Menchoz or Gesink)
3=He only follows wheels and doesnt attack enough.