47th Amstel Gold Race (The maze) - Sunday April 15, 2012

[El Pistolero]

A picture can say thousand words.

I agree, after his dominating performance at the Brabantse Pijl, he'll unleash hell on the hills of Limburg. Looking forward to it.

 

[Zam_Olyas]

A picture can say thousand words.

All aboard for a wild and ridiculous ride on the wagon.

 

[RHRH19861986]

Moreover, slightly disappointing to see Boonen not doing Amstel. One can understand him, he´s been racing since San Luis and won races every one, two weeks, and might be tired, but if he doens´t try Amstel this year, then probably never.
I remember Cancellara metioning he wanted to win LBL and Lombardia.
Instead, all the guys do their same races from year to year. You won´t see Valverde at Flanders, and no Cancellara in Liege.
I understand this, because they´d risk a lot, mainly leaving empty handed in all the races, but it´s great to also have few guys like Gilbert (who only leaves out Roubaix) or Sagan who is young and could be contender for the win in nearly every single big one day race. Fabio Felline is a guy who is also quite promising on what concerns a broad variety of one day races, unfortunately his development hasn´t been too impressive after a strong 2010.

 

[greenedge]

My tip for the race shall be Gerrans, i think the race suits him. If Gilbert is not in form yet and Valverde does not go well here usually i think he can beat JROD ( under his new found form ).
Gerrans
JROD
Gilbert
Valverde
Sagan

Now for my long list of going through each team/ riders.
Gilbert may not be in great for but the Cauberg suits him. Evans and GVA will probably co-lead but Gilbert can still be a factor.
Nocentini??? Otherwise just get onto breaks.
Ponzi could have a chance if some of the the other riders ( Freire/ Sagan are there ). Strong team but lacking Kreuziger.
No idea for EE.
FDJ will attack a lot.
Hesjedal, Kreder, Martin and Wegmann could all go well ( strong team and various options ). They will be present and probably force a split along with BMC, Katusha and Movistar.
GE have a good team in Albasini and Clarke to go on the attack, whilst Gerrans conserves energy for the Cauberg.
Katusha have Freire, Moreno and JROD. They have an option for a sprint and Moreno to perfectly place JROD. Paolini will attack a bit i think.
It would be nice to see Cunego go well.
Nibali will probably not go great here ( even though he is looking much more explosive- Green Mountain Oman ) i think he could do better at F-W/ LBL but he will want the experience before the WC. Has Sagan who could do anything ( but maybe not this year ).
Vanendert and JVDB will make sure Lotto are present. They will only win if they can go solo.
Movistar have a strong team with Visconti, Costa, Kiryienka and Valverde ( as leader ). They could attack or ride at the front. Probably the team with the most options to aminate the race.
Chavanel wants to go well here- but Velits could go great ( Alpe D Huez sprint last year )- and i think he should at least co-lead.
Rabo have 2 cards in Breschel/ Gesink. They will want to go well in front of their home crowd. Martens and Mollema could also do something.
No idea about RSNT but strong team.
CAS???
Hoogerland and Poels will do well here. Westra could also attack on some hills preceding the Cauberg.
Geschke, Gatto, Voeckler ( has to be considered ), Serry ( surprised ), Wallays ( to get in a break maybe??? )

 

[hrotha]

Rui Costa is not improving? After his superb 2011?

He must be one of the most underrated riders around here.

 

[uphillstruggle]

why couldn't he get the win from a tactical move

Ah yes, his trademark get in the break and do no work until the last K tactic

 

[Lexman]

Two certainties in this race:

1. Rabo will chase all day.
2. Rabo won't win.

Purito vs. Sagan vs. Gerrans (although the latter didn't seem that strong in Pais Vasco).

Sorry 3 certainties :
Yours two +
3. Hoogerland to launch suicidal attack

 

[aahmadhu]

strange.. usually the previous winner of Lombardia would be thrown into the mix of favorites in anticipation of the AGR n Ardennes..

 

[Lexman]

Favourites :

J. Rodriguez
Gerrans
Cunego
Valverde
Sagan
to complete top 10
Freire
Vanendert
GVA
someone from Rabo
Marcato
someone from Topsport Vlaanderen

is Thomas de Gendt participating?

 

[will10]

Rui Costa is not improving? After his superb 2011?

He must be one of the most underrated riders around here.

Are you joking? He is hyped to hell for every race with a hill in it.

 

[will10]

strange.. usually the previous winner of Lombardia would be thrown into the mix of favorites in anticipation of the AGR n Ardennes..

Usually the winner of Lombardia doesn't come from nowhere and has had results before and since such a victory.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

gilbert wasn't exactly destroying the ardennes when he was 25 either, and lets not forget costa rides for unzue who likes to develop his riders very carefully and slowly. And costa isn't exactly slow either, granted he is no valverde who can actually rely on his sprint to win one of the ardennes classics but he is no schleck either.



he isn't? do tell me why do you think he isn't improving.

becaus eunless I'm mistaken, which I think not he's never actaully even finished a classic race, expect lombardia 25th last year

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

Are you joking? He is hyped to hell for every race with a hill in it.

this exatcly. eveyr portugese rider is almost overrated here. for instance andre cardoso and hernani broco. they suck this year. I think cardoso is a great rider btw, but there was so much hype and I won't even begin about machado and rui costa

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

strange.. usually the previous winner of Lombardia would be thrown into the mix of favorites in anticipation of the AGR n Ardennes..

uh no, that never happens unles sthat winner ha sbeen proven agr contender

 

[Panda Claws]

Last year it was an 11 man group. If it's that selective, chances are Gilbert won't even be there for the finish.

Also, Sagan is much faster than Gilbert and is climbing a lot better at the moment.

Sagan has yet to show that he is faster than Gilbert on something like the Cauberg.

 

[will10]

Sagan has yet to show that he is faster than Gilbert on something like the Cauberg.

I would say if the race isn't aggressive enough and there's a reasonably sized group together at the bottom of the Cauberg, and Gilbert is still there, then Gilbert will win. But I think he'll be long gone. So Sagan won't need to be faster than Gilbert.

 

[jens_attacks]

1.valverde
2.thomas dekker
3.tommy voeckler

or maybe voeckler first,i'm not sure

 

[aahmadhu]

uh no, that never happens unles sthat winner ha sbeen proven agr contender

Gilbert, Cunego, Bettini all are genuine Ardennes campaigners. I mean, it's been a while since the last time a preceeding Lombardia winner was not in the mix for a good Ardennes campaign. maybe it's just me.
Is Zaugg riding AGR btw?

 

[Panda Claws]

I would say if the race isn't aggressive enough and there's a reasonably sized group together at the bottom of the Cauberg, and Gilbert is still there, then Gilbert will win. But I think he'll be long gone. So Sagan won't need to be faster than Gilbert.

I have always wondered about how sprinters manage to win hard hilly stages exhausted as ****. It would seem to me that their explosiveness largely remained intact. (See Cavendish losing contact on the Poggio and still winning.)

Does the same go for a Cauberg sprint?

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I cringe when people say it's an easy race and a sprint at the cauberg.

Seriously? You people try to watch the race? There are 45 hills, of which 30 are categorized (some are too short to 'count')... usually there's a lot of selection (like last year, 10 men), and in many years groups and solo riders escaped before the cauberg. And when a bigger group sprinted, it was still very much a thinned out group

Since cauberg finish

2003 - Vinokourov, solo. 9-men group sprint for 2nd place (won by Boogerd lol)
2004 - Rebellin wins 2-man sprint against Boogerd. Then a group of 4, then a group of 6...
2005 - 30 men sprint up Cauberg, only 11 manage to finish in the same time in the end. Di Luca wins in front of.. Boogerd
2006 - Solo win by F.Schleck. Then solo Wesemann. Then 7 men of which Boogerd wins the sprint for 3rd place.
2007 - Schumacher wins solo. Then a 6 man group for 2nd place.
2008 - 9 man group sprint for the win, Cunego wins.
2009 - 2 man sprint between Kroon and Ivanov (Ivanov wns). Then Gesink who just stayed out of reach of the next group (20 men, Gilbert wins sprint 4th place)
2010 - 18 man group sprint, Gilbert wins
2011 - 10 men group sprint that catch Schleck just on the last climb (the 11th man). Gilbert wins

So clearly this race is a lot harder than some people here imagine it. Most of the time it didn't even end in a group sprint...And if it did, hardly ever bigger than 10 men.

 

[will10]

2005 was exceptional too as the weather was completely horrific.

 

[theyoungest]

It will be a question of whether Gilbert's explosiveness has taken as much as a hit as his stamina.

Amstel Gold Race is a pretty easy race for guys like Gilbert, Rodriguez, etc...

It is almost like awaiting a bunch sprint most of the time. If this happens then we have to keep in mind than an in-form Gilbert is much much faster here than anyone else.

Amstel isn't an easy race for "guys like Gilbert". Only 3 years ago he got his first good result in this race. Before, the Keutenberg was always a little too much for him.

There's a tendency (as Dekker_T explains as well) to regard this race as a kind of bunch sprint up the Cauberg, but it's nothing like that.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

Gilbert, Cunego, Bettini all are genuine Ardennes campaigners. I mean, it's been a while since the last time a preceeding Lombardia winner was not in the mix for a good Ardennes campaign. maybe it's just me.
Is Zaugg riding AGR btw?

lombardia and agr have about as much in common as msr and lbl

 

[jflemaire]

I cringe when people say it's an easy race and a sprint at the cauberg.

I agree completely. I live in Liège, which is pretty close to Maastricht, so I know very well both LBL's and AGR's courses. The Eijserbosweg/Fromberg/Keutenberg trilogy after 230 km of hard racing is murder. I'm not saying Roche aux Faucons is easy after the same mileage, mind you...
Anyway, I don't think AGR is any easier than LBL, for example. Now, maybe some people think LBL is an easy race ending with a sprint in Ans

 

[Panda Claws]

Amstel isn't an easy race for "guys like Gilbert". Only 3 years ago he got his first good result in this race. Before, the Keutenberg was always a little too much for him.

There's a tendency (as Dekker_T explains as well) to regard this race as a kind of bunch sprint up the Cauberg, but it's nothing like that.

Allright. Thanks to both of you for clearing that up.