47th Amstel Gold Race (The maze) - Sunday April 15, 2012

[Parrulo]

what are ahis reuslts in those monuments then because I can't find them and 25th is his bets. that's quite pathetic at best for a so called hilly classical talent. betancourt finished 9th last year in lombardia at age 22. now that is a huge talent. uran finished on podium even at age 22

costa was still deciding btw the hills and the cobbles(mostly due to unzue forcing him to ride the cobbles) at the time tho. Do you think uran and betancourt, which i agree are immensely talented could finish PR at 22?

his PR result was not impressive or anything but not that bad either for some1 with no experience on the cobbles.

51 Gregory Henderson (NZl) Team Columbia - Highroad 11.11
52 Aleksandr Kuschynski (Blr) Liquigas
53 Marco Bandiera (Ita) Lampre - N.G.C.
54 Aleixei Markov (Rus) Team Katusha
55 Stijn Devolder (Bel) Quick Step
56 Tom Veelers (Ned) Skil-Shimano 12.12
57 Mauro Da Dalto (Ita) Lampre - N.G.C.
58 Rui Costa (Por) Caisse d'Epargne

 

[Woody22]

I don't have a clue who is going to win. I know for certain that Westra will come second, however.

Seriously, I think the order will be as follows:

Sagan
Gerrans
J-Rod
Purito
Sammy
Voeckler
Poels
Voeckler
Frandy
Someone from Rabo

The BMC in Disarray topic will go into meltdown if you are right.

 

[DominicDecoco]

1. JRod
2. Cunego
3. Evans
4. Breschel
5. Gilbert
6. Sagan

 

[The Hitch]

Actually i think Cadel might win. Seems to have the form and has been very good on hills last couple of years

 

[Cobblestoned]

47th Amstel Gold Race
Sunday April 15, 2012

Start: Maastricht
Finish: Valkenburg (Cauberg)
Starttime: 10:21
Finish: around 16.45

Homepage
http://www.amstelgoldrace.nl/
(Parental Advisory: Beer is bad, even Amstel!)

......cut

What a great thread-opening. Full of passion.

You will hear from my lawyer soon.
To prevent worst scenario, you could pay me a beer at Amstel.

 

[cineteq]

1. Rodriguez
2. Valverde
3. Sagan

 

[blaxland]

Sagan
Gilbert
Gerrans
Valverde
Evans
Poels
Jrod
Sanchez
Voeckler
"some little known Dutch guy"

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Agree with most the others, going to pick Gerrans for the win.

This is a hard race to win with any sort of luck at all, there's basically nowhere to hide for the last 50km, so I expect few if any surprises on the podium.

 

[Afrank]

If Sagan has recovered from his crash then I think he will take it. If he hasn't recovered then J-Rod for the win, and Gerrans will podium.

 

[quiqui]

I'd be really surprised if Gerrans could extend his form from Down Under to Milano - Sanremo until the Gold Race. The Vuelta a Pais Vasco doesn't give much hope either.

I was thinking the same thing. There was a lot of pressure on him to be good at TDU and it may have made him peak a bit too early.

 

[royalpig180]

If Sagan has recovered from his crash then I think he will take it. If he hasn't recovered then J-Rod for the win, and Gerrans will podium.

Sagan's crash didn't look bad. I agree with this, but he'll need to do a better job of staying out of trouble than he did on Wednesday. His team looked strong there too, but the competition will be a bit more fierce at Amstel (what with all the ProTeams present) I think.

 

[greenedge]

strange.. usually the previous winner of Lombardia would be thrown into the mix of favorites in anticipation of the AGR n Ardennes..

He will probably have to work for his team leaders.

 

[greenedge]

I know he is the lieutenant for Rodriguez, but Moreno could be a dangerous outsider as well.

So could Paolini ( based on his RvV ). I love both their riding styles.

I think however Moreno will not get a chance to feature ( except for being JROD's/ freires' last man ) because Katusha will have to ride at the front.

 

[greenedge]

The immensely strong Movistar squad:
Alejandro Valverde
Giovanni Visconti
Rui Costa
Jose Joaquin Rojas
Angel Madrazo
Pablo Lastras
Vasil Kiryienka
Imanol Erviti

They should have Arroyo for Erviti.

 

[greenedge]

I'd be really surprised if Gerrans could extend his form from Down Under to Milano - Sanremo until the Gold Race. The Vuelta a Pais Vasco doesn't give much hope either.

Maybe he can't but he wanted to peak for the Ardenes, not M-SR.

 

[karlboss]

Maybe he can't but he wanted to peak for the Ardenes, not M-SR.

Agree with you there, I don't think Gerrans had to be in great form for what he did at Nationals, TDU, P-N,or M-SR. Nor would any of these efforts burned him out.
I've derided Gerrans over the last few years, touted as a next big thing in Australian cycling but in my mind had not really achieved much to justify it. This year he's looked loads better and I'm hoping I'll eat my words.

 

[Swede1]

I wonder if Evans will be as strong as in 2010 in the classics (or stronger). He hasnt had any falls or sickness or anything to stop him. He would have to win by just grinding it out all the way up the final climb. Most likely the schlecks and him will try something earlier to at least try to make it hard for the others.

 

[karlboss]

I wonder if Evans will be as strong as in 2010 in the classics (or stronger). He hasnt had any falls or sickness or anything to stop him. He would have to win by just grinding it out all the way up the final climb. Most likely the schlecks and him will try something earlier to at least try to make it hard for the others.

I think the Cauberg finish is too fast for Evans, but if the race is tough all day he's a possibility. For BMC, GVA is in good form, but needs the opposite kind of race to make it to the finish in contention
I'm tipping Rodriguez, has finished second twice here and is arriving with good form and a strong team. Movistar look really good also for Valverde. Gerrans form has been good, but i think he'll be fending for himself a little in the finale.
Hoping for Sanchez

 

[Wilba60]

Agree with you there, I don't think Gerrans had to be in great form for what he did at Nationals, TDU, P-N,or M-SR. Nor would any of these efforts burned him out.
I've derided Gerrans over the last few years, touted as a next big thing in Australian cycling but in my mind had not really achieved much to justify it. This year he's looked loads better and I'm hoping I'll eat my words.

Maybe the lack of achievement was more to do with his time at Sky, as he seemed to go backwards once he moved from Cervelo, or possibly injury but he has certainly flourished with GE and the leadership role they have given him. I don't think fending for himself will hurt Gerrans as he did that with all of his big clashes this year but I am pretty confident that guys like Clarke, Impey and Albasini will look after him well. In fact GE may use the same ploy as MSR and have someone like Albasini or Clarke in the cover role that Gerrans played for Goss.

I think Evans does have the speed to go with them in the latter stages but not sure what the BMC tactics will be and how well Gilbert is travelling. Sanchez, Valverde and Sagan are rightfully amongst the favourites with my outsider being Voeckler at $26

Joaquin Rodriguez
6.50
P Sagan
9.00
S Gerrans
10.00
P Gilbert
11.00
A Valverde
13.00
S Sanchez
15.00
D Cunego
15.00
C Evans
19.00
O Freire
23.00
G Van Avermaet
26.00
J Van Den Broeck
26.00
T Voeckler
26.00
R Gesink
26.00
V Nibali
26.00
D Martin
36.00
R Hesjedal
36.00
C Horner
36.00
O Gatto
41.00
W Poels
41.00
F Schleck
41.00
G Meersman
41.00
B Mollema
41.00
J Hoogerland
41.00
E Boasson Hagen
51.00
Syl Chavanel
51.00

 

[Wilba60]

Sky betting is a little different and they have Gilbert and Evans even more closely bracketed. These betting prices would seem to suggest that BMC will be looking to Gilbert for the win and Evans to assist but ride for the win if Gilbert is dropped.

Matt Hayman, 200-1....gee one day Sky might let him loose and he could score a huge upset.

 

[42x16ss]

I was thinking the same thing. There was a lot of pressure on him to be good at TDU and it may have made him peak a bit too early.

At least Greenedge won't be expected to control the race. Gerrans also seemed to be riding well within himself at Pais Vasco.

I'm tipping top 5 after opening up the sprint a little early.

 

[CobbleStoner]

an open letter to the Belgian national road champ:
Crunch time is here, party time is over. You have 2 options on Sunday, win or die trying, no more cruising around with the peloton, finishing in the 50's with a clean jersey. If you don't win, you should be covered in sweat, snot, and a little blood. Please honor that jersey for the next 2 weeks.

 

[greenedge]

Matt Hayman, 200-1....gee one day Sky might let him loose and he could score a huge upset.

He is better on the flats.

 

[sTTevie]

What a great thread-opening. Full of passion.

You will hear from my lawyer soon.
To prevent worst scenario, you could pay me a beer at Amstel.

it should be 'parental advisory; beer is bad, Amstel is worse'

Gilbert knows

 

[sTTevie]

Is the new run-in shorter ?

I would have thought that wide straight descent would favour a chasing group as opposed to one or two riders in front

yep, it's about 2,5k shorter than the traditional route