47th Amstel Gold Race (The maze) - Sunday April 15, 2012

[dlwssonic]

I got a feeling evans will surprise us in this race. His uphill sprint even on easier hills like the cauberg is really good when on form.

 

[dlwssonic]

is this race too hard for Sagan?? I can see him winning.

 

[BillytheKid]

It would be great for me if RNS could defeat the power contenders who pack an ultimate finish on these short climbs. How? Attack the last 4 or 5 climbs with everyone they have. The finishing climbs are stitched a little closer. This trio leading up to the Keutenberg (slotted closer to the Cauberg final) would be good place to attack and force a small but powerful break.

Kruisberg 21.3 KM 
Eyserbosweg 19.2 KM
Fromberg 15.5 KM

Chavenanel, Nibali, Kiserluvski, Horner, Hesjedal?
Catch the favorites looking at each other. They don't like hitting the wind to early.

INRNG says the designers want a climbers' rampage. There are a lot of combinations to be had from any given team. This might be more of a best team day. Monfort or Bakelants could do the same.

I think Horner could be a good rabbit for a Schleck counter on the Keutenberg. If not, all the said favorites like Sagan, Sanchez or Rodriguez will be tough to beat.

In 2010 Horner finished 10th at Amstel, 7th at Fleche and 8th at Liege, but didn't ride the Ardennes last year to train alone for the Cali. Glad he's back to the Ardennes Classics this year. Obviously he will get swamped in a bunch finish.
I hoping for something different. Others may have the same idea. Evans is very dangerous. It should be a big show today.

 

[Afrank]

is this race too hard for Sagan?? I can see him winning.

If Freire can get second in brabantse pijl, and Sagan can win the chieti stage at Tirreno-adriatico, Then Sagan can win Amstel Gold.

 

[dlwssonic]

I think now Jrod and Sagan are the main favourites.
How is Valverde? Heard he is not going very well.
This race is going to be VERY open.
There is Jrod, Sagan, Nibali, Valverde, Schlecks, GVA, Gilbert, Evans, Sanchez, VDB, cunego, freire, gerrans all with a good chance of winning it.

 

[Yingge]

Weather Report from Aachen at 07:30.

Raining steadily (since about 3AM), Temp around 5C, the sky is uniformly Grey.

Now I have to think about where I might go and get my free cold shower today - not pleasant for riders or spectators.

 

[Trofinios]

Interesting that they have shortened the distance between Keutenberg and Cauberg with a couple of kilometers. This will surely give riders who know they can't match J-Rod on Cuaberg an incentive to attack and get away after Keutenberg. We also know there is some descending to do a few kilometers from Cuberg. I could see riders like Nibali, Evans, Sanchez, Schlecks, Visconti, some rabo guy trying to attack late in the race. I get the feeling Evans could try something today.

 

[Forunculo]

I can see a 40 km solo from Andy. It can be one of the best moment this season.

 

[Trofinios]

I can see a 40 km solo from Andy. It can be one of the best moment this season.

Not sure about his shape, doesn't seem like he has had the best build up for the ardennes. Think he will use AGR as a good preparation for LBL. But sure, an attack from Andy would be nice.

 

[Trofinios]

From article on front page:

Notably, Bettini listed a troika of Spanish names among his non-Italian favourites for both Amstel Gold Race and the Worlds. "Peter Sagan, Alejandro Valverde, Samuel Sanchez, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Joaquim Rodriguez. They’re the most important names," he said.

What do you say maltiv? Any hope for EBH today? It was a hard blow to see EBH last weekend i P-R, totally exhausted after 220k. Different type of course but AGR is also damn tough. Only light I can see is that EBH looked decent in RVV and AGR is a bit like RVV without the cobbles. Still, with RVV and P-R in his legs I think AGR will be too much for him at this point and I don't expect anything from him today.

 

[crapna]

Samuel or TGBM ftw.

 

[kjetilraknerud]

I think EBH is racing to prepare for worlds, probably a domestique role for him today.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

No way Hagen will be a contender. Don't know who made that up!?

 

[kjetilraknerud]

Bettini made that up.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Bettini made that up.

That's true. I should have read the whole quote

 

[theyoungest]

It's interesting how the "experts" can make such a talented guy seem like such a failure, when once again he doesn't make it to the final of a race. EBH is not there yet, maybe someday he will be, but until then don't mention him among those names.

 

[kjetilraknerud]

Indeed

10chars

 

[airstream]

If Gasparotto was the 3rd, Hagen can even win. )

 

[Trofinios]

I think EBH is racing to prepare for worlds, probably a domestique role for him today.

Agree. Nordhaug and Henao are the main guys for Sky today, but I guess Sky might wait to late in the race to see how the guys feel until the decide who to go for. Nordhaug and Henao are uncertain cards, Lovkvist and EBH could be options if they feel well late in race.

 

[Trofinios]

Evans "will ride for Phil", had a "small virus" after CI, and believe Vuelta Pais Vasco guys will show themselves in the last 50k. From Velonews

The Aussie Tour champ reminded journalists at the Park Inn Hotel southwest of Liège what he said at the team’s training camp in January: “I will ride for Phil.”

“I’m here to help the team, that’s what I’ve already said,” Evans explained. “I will try to be there in the final to be a good helper for Phil or Greg. I know that Phil’s shape is not at 100 percent, but my shape’s the same.”

Evans gave BMC Racing its only win so far this season, a stage and overall in the Critérium International, at the end of March. Since the race, he hoped his form would improve, but a “small virus” set him back.

“I’m not bad, but if I’m good enough play a key role on Sunday,” he said. “I don’t know.”

/.../

“If you consider Amstel Gold is 260 kilometers, then the last 50 kilometers will logically be a little difficult for me. That’s where the guys from País Vasco will play a role: Joaquím Rodríguez, Samuel Sánchez and Bauke Mollema. In the last 50K, that’s where I’ll have a difficult time.”

I think Evans is just being modest, with Gilbert's form in doubt BMC will look for Evans and GVA to step up if needed.

 

[Mellow Velo]

Showing the signing on, at the moment, in the rain:
http://www.l1.nl/epg_nowon/popup/tv

 

[airstream]

omg, whom are they showing?!) Where is an interview with the Legend??

 

[Cancellator]

At least the commercials are not as bad as the Basque ones.

 

[greenedge]

You think Samu can follow an attack by Purito on the steep section in the final? Not so sure about that, it's 11-12% steep and Purito's punch in this situation might just be too much for Samu, thereby not saying that he can be close and maybe then catch Purito on the flatter section. Anyhow, I give a clear advantage to J-Rod.

We saw that Valverde lacks his punch to obliterate everyone on steep sections ( Mende, he was expected to attack non-stop to gap Wiggins ) so Samu logically steps into the main dude who can challenge JROD in the steepest part.

However he will not win it on that section but on the flatter part.

 

[ParfaitAmour]

The weather looks grim

I agree about EBH, don't think he looked good in the end during P-R