49th Amstel Gold Race, 20 April 2014 (WT) 251km

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Last year almost 15 people were stronger than Gilbert in LBL despite Gilbert being the fastest man up the Cauberg.

So yeah. I don't really see your point. Yes I think Valverde, Kwiatkowski and other basque strongmen will do better than Gilbert in LBL.

 

[Jspear]

Last year almost 15 people were stronger than Gilbert in LBL despite Gilbert being the fastest man up the Cauberg.

So yeah. I don't really see your point. Yes I think Valverde, Kwiatkowski and other basque strongmen will do better than Gilbert in LBL.

Last year Gilbert might have been the fastest man up the Cauberg, but he wasn't the strongest....he couldn't hold the lead. This year he was the fastest and the strongest....I think he'll win LBL and Fleche....at least Fleche.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Last year Gilbert might have been the fastest man up the Cauberg, but he wasn't the strongest....he couldn't hold the lead. This year he was the fastest and the strongest....I think he'll win....at least Fleche.

Last year there wasn't a tailwind on and after the Cauberg. So that's not a good argument either

 

[BigMac]

Last year almost 15 people were stronger than Gilbert in LBL despite Gilbert being the fastest man up the Cauberg.

So yeah. I don't really see your point. Yes I think Valverde, Kwiatkowski and other basque strongmen will do better than Gilbert in LBL.

You forget to mention Alberto Rui Costa. Now, 15 people - you're exagerating. He finished 7th and who was it, from those who finished behind him, that was better? Only maybe Hesjedal.

Also, how do you think Mollema will perform? You're expectations were quite low before Amstel, but he seems to be building up.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Yeah Mollema surprised me. Didn't expect him to be the best Dutchman. Seems to have the best endurance, and lasts longer than riders who are supposed to be more punchy then him.

FW is probably too explosive, but he can still finish top 10 there like last two years. LBL is probably his best bet if it's a long finale and they start breaking it up early. But still hard for him to beat the best.

 

[BigMac]

I just watched the complete race as I could not do it live, and he looked good. I really am looking forward to see how he will do in Liége. I can see him dragging with the best in Ans, and who knows (let's wait for Fléche) riding away.

Also, I was curious to see why Costa finished 17th. It was Worlds '12 déjà vu. Very bad positioning coming into Valkenburg, he was down almost 20 positions. The fast pace coming into the town brought him back to the middle of the péloton. I'm still wondering why. So I still have some hope he will perform in LBL.

 

[hoolaparara]

I think Valverde has finally worn me down with his craven riding. I shall be cheering against him all the time now. What a terrible performance by the chasers.

 

[jaylew]

Have you watched his races this year?

 

[movingtarget]

BMC seemed to be getting it together much better in the classics this year. Riding much smarter. Valverde is much more aggressive in the shorter stage races than he is in the classics. It's like watching two different riders. Arashiro in the top 10, he seems to be riding much better in 2014.

 

[karlboss]

The only difference with BMC is their riders are stronger.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Also

Mr Belgian Schleck

Ugh.

And people ask why I don't like him.

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

Vanendert is even worse than Schleck though. He doesn't even really perform in the TDF except for that year where he won a stage.

 

[JRanton]

The only difference with BMC is their riders are stronger.

Exactly. It amazes me how much people talk at length about tactics when nine times out of ten it simply comes down to who has the best legs.

 

[Panda Claws]

Last year almost 15 people were stronger than Gilbert in LBL despite Gilbert being the fastest man up the Cauberg.

So yeah. I don't really see your point. Yes I think Valverde, Kwiatkowski and other basque strongmen will do better than Gilbert in LBL.

Fair point. Although, I do think that he is a bit stronger this time around.

 

[Flamin]

I just watched the complete race as I could not do it live, and he looked good. I really am looking forward to see how he will do in Liége. I can see him dragging with the best in Ans, and who knows (let's wait for Fléche) riding away.

Also, I was curious to see why Costa finished 17th. It was Worlds '12 déjà vu. Very bad positioning coming into Valkenburg, he was down almost 20 positions. The fast pace coming into the town brought him back to the middle of the péloton. I'm still wondering why. So I still have some hope he will perform in LBL.

No legs, that's why. He was next to Vanendert at the foot.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Fair point. Although, I do think that he is a bit stronger this time around.

Yeah, don't get me wrong, i'm not counting him out though. I'm not blind either. He is better than last year. And with Dan Martin looking unspectacular, Rodriguez being battered and Betancur having a knee injury, and no Henao, it's only logical he'll move up. But I still think when the moment is there on Roche Aux Faucons or Saint Nicolas, he'll be just out of it.

However, if he wins FW, I might rethink my opinion.

 

[Jagartrott]

If he wins FW, you may change your opinion?
You mean, if he wins 3/3 hilly classics, he might have a shot at LBL?

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

If he wins FW, you may change your opinion?
You mean, if he wins 3/3 hilly classics, he might have a shot at LBL?

Br pijl and amstel are that different from lbl and fw, because the hills are a lot shirter.

LBL has 4/5km hills.. it's a different terrain than 700/800m.

 

[Shardi]

Br pijl and amstel are that different from lbl and fw, because the hills are a lot shirter.

LBL has 4/5km hills.. it's a different terrain than 700/800m.

This can be approximated by looking through the top 10 lists of the three ardennes classics for the last couple of years. A larger proportion of GC climbers are present in the in FW and LBL top 10 than in AGR.

For the case of Gilbert, last year he managed to get a gap on the cauberg while he almost fell off his bike at Mur de Huy and was dropped by valverde/betancour/martin on st:nicholas. In 2013 he looked significantly heavier compared to the 2010/11 and 2014 versions. I dont think it was only the champ outfit that made that figure.
More weight should have a larger effect on longer/steeper climbs in LBL and Huy.

Anyone who agrees with this observation?

The 2014 Gilbert looks slimmer than last year, and the attack was sustained better (better wind conditions is a possible explaination) in this AGR edition than the 2013 one.

Allthough if the weight theory holds, he should be doing better in both FW and LBL this time.

 

[VeloHuman]

This can be approximated by looking through the top 10 lists of the three ardennes classics for the last couple of years. A larger proportion of GC climbers are present in the in FW and LBL top 10 than in AGR.

For the case of Gilbert, last year he managed to get a gap on the cauberg while he almost fell off his bike at Mur de Huy and was dropped by valverde/betancour/martin on st:nicholas. In 2013 he looked significantly heavier compared to the 2010/11 and 2014 versions. I dont think it was only the champ outfit that made that figure.
More weight should have a larger effect on longer/steeper climbs in LBL and Huy.

Anyone who agrees with this observation?

The 2014 Gilbert looks slimmer than last year, and the attack was sustained better (better wind conditions is a possible explaination) in this AGR edition than the 2013 one.

Allthough if the weight theory holds, he should be doing better in both FW and LBL this time.

You asked for people who agree: I do, completely. Even with Gilbert's awesome race yesterday, I still wouldn't name him favorite were it not for so many injury concerns with Purito, Betancur, and Martin, all of whom are more GC style climbers.

 

[Panda Claws]

So Gilbert mainly has to look out for the better climbers than him.

Simon Gerrans is at around the same level, I think.

Alejandro Valverde is better and has looked good so far, but in my opinion not stellar. The Valverde we saw at Vuelta Pais Vasco was not really his top form, I think although he might of course have reached it by sunday.

Michal Kwiatkowski is still young etc. I cannot imagine him being a serious danger in a tough race like Liège.

Joaquim Rodriguez will be tough to beat especially with Moreno by his side.

Other contenders like Bauke Mollema and Jelle Vanendert also showed form, but even in absolute top form I think they would have a hard time winning.


To me Philippe Gilbert looked pretty much identical to his 2012 WC form, and with that form he easily bested Valverde/Rodriguez on an other uphill finish in the Vuelta.

We have to keep in mind that the 2010 Gilbert had a good shot at winning LBL (was one of the strongest riders in the race).

 

[Shardi]

Looking towards LBL the usual contenders are the more explosive GC-climbers who contend for podiums in the GTs, sprinkled with a few punchy one-day riders on top form.
Among the LBL contenders Gilbert is the one who does best in AGR, relative to the general LBL competition. So the AGR performance does not give a definitive indication of Gilbert's LBL prospects.

However, one can approximate his 2014 LBL prospects by comparing his annual AGR/LBL performances and make some sort of fit. This is my rating of his performances 2010-2014.

Gilbert-AGR: 2012 < 2013 < 2010 < 2014 < 2011
Gilbert-LBL: 2012 < 2013 < 2010 < [?] < 2011

Based on previous performances he should be stronger than in last years LBL. In 2010 he attacked with A.Schleck on roche, did not match Vinos attack afterwards, despite trying to bridge, then doing one last attempt to close the gap at st:nicholas dropping valverde and evans like stones. He definitively was one of the strongest contenders that edition, having significant amounts of dry powder at nicholas of which he had none left in 2013.

 

[dlwssonic]

Looking towards LBL the usual contenders are the more explosive GC-climbers who contend for podiums in the GTs, sprinkled with a few punchy one-day riders on top form.
Among the LBL contenders Gilbert is the one who does best in AGR, relative to the general LBL competition. So the AGR performance does not give a definitive indication of Gilbert's LBL prospects.

However, one can approximate his 2014 LBL prospects by comparing his annual AGR/LBL performances and make some sort of fit. This is my rating of his performances 2010-2014.

Gilbert-AGR: 2012 < 2013 < 2010 < 2014 < 2011
Gilbert-LBL: 2012 < 2013 < 2010 < [?] < 2011

Based on previous performances he should be stronger than in last years LBL. In 2010 he attacked with A.Schleck on roche, did not match Vinos attack afterwards, despite trying to bridge, then doing one last attempt to close the gap at st:nicholas dropping valverde and evans like stones. He definitively was one of the strongest contenders that edition, having significant amounts of dry powder at nicholas of which he had none left in 2013.

Actually to be honest in my opinion I found his 2010 and his 2014 amstel gold race performance slightly more impressive than in 2011. Maybe it was because of the lack of rodriguez in both races. He also looked really good in 2010 LBL maybe more impressive than his 2011 lbl performance as he really didn't have to do much in 2011 lbl.

 

[Volderke]

Ugh.

And people ask why I don't like him.

You hopefully know Vanendert broke his elbow in January, so he couldn't get results in Feb-March? I see no reason to not like him, actually. He is always cheerful and open for conversation pre and post race. I had the pleasure to speak to him once. He is one of the Ardennes favorites for me!

 

[Panda Claws]

Actually to be honest in my opinion I found his 2010 and his 2014 amstel gold race performance slightly more impressive than in 2011. Maybe it was because of the lack of rodriguez in both races. He also looked really good in 2010 LBL maybe more impressive than his 2011 lbl performance as he really didn't have to do much in 2011 lbl.

You have to keep in mind that he did quite some work before the Cauberg in 2011.