49th Volta ao Algarve em Bicicleta (2.Pro) // February 15th - 19th 2023

[Danskebjerge]

Fantastic racing from the intermediate sprint till the finish. I already knew the results and have read the comments in this thread before watching the stage so I already knew what happened and it still was an incredible watch. I was laughing my ass off in the end. Amazing stuff!

I can watch this kind of finish over and over again. It's simply the core of what makes cycling interesting. I know most people think mountain stages are the most entertaining, and they do have qualities that flat sprinter stages don't - but the battle between a breakaway and a peloton has so much more suspense than Pogacar leading by a minute on some climb in the Alps.

 

[CHGJ2000]

What makes you sure he'll beat Foss tomorrow?

In 7 pro TT's against each other, Ganna's beaten him in 6, usually by quite a lot. Ganna's also came into this season saying he's gone back to his old preparation style (more weight training, less focus on low weight) that he used in 2020 and before (apparently focussed on weight a bit in 2021-2022), so would stand to reason with the way he's climbed today on a steep climb, he'll be absolutely flying tomorrow.

 

[Wvv]

Anyone knows if Herregodts is still around?

I can't imagine him being of relevance today.

I think he'll maybe be capable of doing decent climbing efforts in shorter stage races. Today he's not there, unfortunately.

He had a mechanical. Would've been there otherwise. Shame.

 

[theyoungest]

What makes you sure he'll beat Foss tomorrow?

Foss is not suddenly a world class time trialist. That worlds win was really a fluke, maybe not to the extent Evenepoel thought it was, but usually a top-5 is about all you can expect from him.

Maybe now that he is not trying to be a climber anymore this has changed, but I doubt it.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Van Wilder has 27 seconds to Ganna, but he only has 2 on Almeida. JA didn't ride good TTs last year, but he might have more luck this season.

 

[armchairclimber]

Pidcock doesn't win enough.

 

[armchairclimber]

I also think that all the blond riders in the peloton should grow a Cort-tash as a sign of respect. And to annoy the fella on here that hates Cort's tash.

 

[Salvarani]

Pidcock doesn't win enough.

I know it is a joke, but if I didnt make a mistake it is only his third 2. Pro stage-race.

First one he didnt finish. Algarve, last year.

Second one was Tour of Britain, last year as well, which he finished 2nd overall. He was 2nd and 3rd on two stages. Also 5th and 7th on a couple of other ones.

So in his third one he has finally won a stage and is leading the race going into the last stage.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I also think that all the blond riders in the peloton should grow a Cort-tash as a sign of respect. And to annoy the fella on here that hates Cort's tash.

Nobody hates his stache, just the rider attached to the moustache.

I'm kidding.

Van Wilder has 27 seconds to Ganna, but he only has 2 on Almeida. JA didn't ride good TTs last year, but he might have more luck this season.

Even before his decline at UAE, i would put Van Wilder above Almeida as a TT'er.

 

[postmanhat]

Mostly a fanboy post, but Pidcock's ridden so few stage races it's difficult to gauge his TT. In last year's TDF he was 14 seconds behind Ganna on a pan-flat 13K, which was probably the only one he's taken seriously since turning pro. He could still be in contention for the podium.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Mostly a fanboy post, but Pidcock's ridden so few stage races it's difficult to gauge his TT. In last year's TDF he was 14 seconds behind Ganna on a pan-flat 13K, which was probably the only one he's taken seriously since turning pro. He could still be in contention for the podium.

Also difficult to gauge since the last serious TT i've seen him try, was the 2020 ECC where he was only a few seconds behind Van Wilder iirc (it was 11 seconds). But podium is certainly possible, even a win is not completely out of the question, but i don't think he's a favourite.

 

[Netserk]

Final GC prediction:

1. Ganna
2. Van Wilder
3. Foss
4. Cort
5. Almeida
6. Pidcock
7. Mollema
8. Martinez
9. Küng
10. Costa

 

[postmanhat]

I know it is a joke, but if I didnt make a mistake it is only his third 2. Pro stage-race.

First one he didnt finish. Algarve, last year.

Second one was Tour of Britain, last year as well, which he finished 2nd overall. He was 2nd and 3rd on two stages. Also 5th and 7th on a couple of other ones.

So in his third one he has finally won a stage and is leading the race going into the last stage.

His stage racing career has been so unconventional due to him riding two other disciplines, combined with his/Ineo's ambitions to win The TDF. So he's finished two GTs, but only ridden one WT stage race, which he didn't complete due to covid

 

[Samamba]

I think it will be between Ganna and Van Wilder. Pidcock will do a good TT tho but not enough. Looks like his form is good tho, Ineos has a strong team for Omloop. I rate Almeida a slightly bit worse than Van Wilder, but not like it's impossible for him to win ofcourse.

And then there is Foss ofcourse, but even tho he is WC, I doubt he'll win a lot of TTs this year.

 

[groogster]

Yes, i think he can. I actually think it's going to be between the two of them. The problem is that he hasn't done a TT of that length all out for 2 years now. But he is a superb TT'er and he is in great shape.

I think that Ganna will put easily around 1 minute to Van Wilder and Almeida. The big question for tomorrow will be Foss

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I think that Ganna will put easily around 1 minute to Van Wilder and Almeida. The big question for tomorrow will be Foss

If Foss can beat Ganna tomorrow, it will be because Ganna does a subpar TT. In which case about 5 other guys are more likely to take GC than Foss considerring how things stand.

 

[Netserk]

If Foss can beat Ganna tomorrow, it will be because Ganna does a subpar TT. In which case about 5 other guys are more likely to take GC than Foss considerring how things stand.

Let's hear your top-10 after tomorrow.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Let's hear your top-10 after tomorrow.

As i stated in my OP, this could come down to seconds, so making a prediction when the top 5 could be within 30 seconds seems nonsensical. My pre race favorites were Martinez, Ganna, Küng, followed by Van Wilder, Almeida, Arensman (with doubts after Valencia), Foss, Higuita and Pidcock.

Arensman, Higuita and Küng are out.
Foss and Marinez are below expectations.
Ganna and Van Wilder are above expectations. They are also among the best TTers and unlike Foss and Martinez, seem in better shape.

I think the top 5 will be Ganna, Van Wilder, Martinez, Pidcock and Almeida, in GC. Not necessarily in that order.

 

[Escarabajo]

Almeida, Ganna and Foss for the podium. Maybe Pidcock and Martinez can pull a good TT but the others are just too good!

 

[groogster]

As i stated in my OP, this could come down to seconds, so making a prediction when the top 5 could be within 30 seconds seems nonsensical. My pre race favorites were Martinez, Ganna, Küng, followed by Van Wilder, Almeida, Arensman (with doubts after Valencia), Foss, Higuita and Pidcock.

Arensman, Higuita and Küng are out.
Foss and Marinez are below expectations.
Ganna and Van Wilder are above expectations. They are also among the best TTers and unlike Foss and Martinez, seem in better shape.

I think the top 5 will be Ganna, Van Wilder, Martinez, Pidcock and Almeida, in GC. Not necessarily in that order.

I would only make a change in your prediction, I would put Foss instead of Martinez. But as you said as things stands anything can happen with Ganna being the clear favourite for the win. If Ganna underperforms my bet would be between Van Wilder and Almeida for the GC victory.

 

[Lequack]

 

[noob]

Didn't watch this stage live. Watching the rerun of the end and it looks like Almeida more or less halted to look behind him to time his sprint. If he had kept going I'm not fully sure Pidcock would've beaten him? At least not that much. Looks like Almeida's gotten back some of the explosivity he lost last year.

Incredibly fascinating last minutes overall and amazing finish of Pidcock!

 

[Berniece]

Yes, i think he can. I actually think it's going to be between the two of them. The problem is that he hasn't done a TT of that length all out for 2 years now. But he is a superb TT'er and he is in great shape.

Sure, but 25s isn't a lot against Ganna. Pretty sure he won't be able to hold on. I do hope he wins though, he's a great guy and deserves to get some wins for himself if he has to help Evenepoel in GT's.

 

[Sciatic]

I can watch this kind of finish over and over again. It's simply the core of what makes cycling interesting. I know most people think mountain stages are the most entertaining, and they do have qualities that flat sprinter stages don't - but the battle between a breakaway and a peloton has so much more suspense than Pogacar leading by a minute on some climb in the Alps.

It was a great stage to watch —or at least the 25 K were great, which is what I could catch on reply.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Sure, but 25s isn't a lot against Ganna. Pretty sure he won't be able to hold on. I do hope he wins though, he's a great guy and deserves to get some wins for himself if he has to help Evenepoel in GT's.

Not saying it's the most likely outcome. But i think as things stand, he's the most likely to do it, if anyone is going to be able to keep Ganna from winning GC.