94th Giro d'Italia May 7 - 29

[The Hitch]

Heres how I see favourites, based on climbing.

1 Contador
2 Purito
3 Scarponi
4 Anton
5 Rujano
6 Nibali
7 Di Luca
8 Menchov
9 Sastre
10 Kreuziger


Heres how I see them including ttts and tts. doesnt mean I predict theyll finish this way as its not taking into account, wind Strade Bianchi and downhill a lot of other factors come in.

1 Contador
2 Scarponi
3 Menchov
4 Nibali
5 Rujano
6 Anton
7 Rodriguez
8 Di Luca
9 Kreuziger
10 Sastre

 

[Ryaguas]

Rujano - hasn't done anything for ages
Duarte - still quite young and the giro is punishing to young riders with the amount of mountain stages.
Sella - hasn't shown much yet to say he will do much, even if he does do well in Trentino

Ah come on!
Sella is having a helluvah season mate! his problem is that He's crazy! He's always attacking and getting in the breakaways!
Duarte has proved that He can handle the mountains, He will have some bad jours cuz is his 1st GT but I'd bet that He will finish ahead of the 90% of the riders in your list...

 

[Ryaguas]

MOV MOVISTAR TEAM ESP
121 ESP19800107 ARROYO DURAN David ESP
122 ITA19740615 BRUSEGHIN Marzio ITA
123 CRC19860829 AMADOR BAKKAZAKOVA Andrey CRC
124 BLR19810628 KIRYIENKA Vasili BLR
125 ESP19760120 LASTRAS GARCIA Pablo ESP
126 ESP19840116 PARDILLA BELLON Sergio ESP
127 ESP19791002 PASAMONTES RODRIGUEZ Luis ESP
128 BLR19850525 SAMOILAU Branislau BLR
129 ESP19820506 VENTOSO ALBERDI Francisco J. ESP
D.S. ARRIETA Jose Luis

Just Imagine Contador in that team! Geezz... I still dont know how He could go to SBS... well Hope to see him in 2013 in this team

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Arroyo, Bruseghin and Pardilla will all finish between 6th and 20th. None will ever threaten the podium unless something insane happens.

Unzué's men will try a few things to see if they can fluke their way into it like 2006 and 2010 though.

Kiryienka will remember how much fun he had in 2008, and he will disappear up the road several times and maybe get a stage. He and Sella will find themselves in a couple of breaks together and reminisce about the days when Sella would leave Vasil behind with comically obviously charged performances.

 

[jens_attacks]

also when evans leaves bmc will you become a fan of that team again?? let's say he goes to astana?

that would be hilarious.imagine acf going ballistic when maxim gourov will be in a breakaway=)))))))))))))))))))

Hitch,i'm fainting when i see those lists...sweet mother of god.the line up is so good it's even hard to find pozzovivo a place in the top 10 and he's in great shape too.two weeks to wait?

 

[Duartista]

I would be very, very surprised if Di Luca makes the top 10. The route is much too hard for him.

 

[airstream]

Heres how I see favourites, based on climbing.

1 Contador
2 Purito
3 Scarponi
4 Anton
5 Rujano
6 Nibali
7 Di Luca
8 Menchov
9 Sastre
10 Kreuziger

I think you're too categorical. Do you think Menchov's worse than Rujano as a climber? To my mind Menchov's got a slight edge on the climbs over everyone besides Contador and Scarponi. Purito is a superclimber only if gradient 10% and steeper. Why dont you believe in Nibali so much? Is it joke about Rujano, no?)) Sorry, my english is bad, probably you understand my thoughts.

 

[Duartista]

Purito is a superclimber only when gradient 10% and steeper.

That could be very useful indeed in this Giro! His problem is more that he is not a guy who can open up a gap and keep going for 5-10 kms, so is unlikely to make big time gains on any given stage.

 

[Lanark]

I think you're too categorical. Do you think Menchov's worse than Rujano as a climber? To my mind Menchov's got a slight edge on the climbs over everyone besides Contador and Scarponi. Purito is a superclimber only when gradient 10% and steeper. Why dont you believe in Nibali so much? Is it joke about Rujano, no?)) Sorry, my english is bad, probably you understand my thoughts.

Yeah, I agree, Menchov may not have the most flashy climbing style, but he is really good, you don't win mountaintop finishes in the Giro, Tour and Vuelta unless you're a good climber. He was probably the fourth best climber in last year's Tour. For Rujano to look for anything that comes close to Menchovs best in recent years, you have to go back to 2005, and even then it's debatable if that was better.

I'm not sure how he'll handle himself on the really steep climbs, but if he is in good shape I believe he will do fine on those as well.

 

[airstream]

That could be very useful indeed in this Giro! His problem is more that he is not a guy who can open up a gap and keep going for 5-10 kms, so is unlikely to make big time gains on any given stage.

Yes. I'm agree with you сompletely. Plus I can imagine Purito cracking very seriously on one of the stages. It's very unlikely as for Nibali.

 

[The Hitch]

Yeah, I agree, Menchov may not have the most flashy climbing style, but he is really good, you don't win mountaintop finishes in the Giro, Tour and Vuelta unless you're a good climber. He was probably the fourth best climber in last year's Tour. For Rujano to look for anything that comes close to Menchovs best in recent years, you have to go back to 2005, and even then it's debatable if that was better.

I'm not sure how he'll handle himself on the really steep climbs, but if he is in good shape I believe he will do fine on those as well.

Out of interest, who do you rank as the top 3 climbers in last years tour btw?

And the point is if Menchov contends he will get a lot of time from tt. If rujano contends it will be all in the mountains. Rujano might not show up but if he does I think his climbing will be better than the Popes.

As for J rod, im starting to think Rujano was onto something when he said Purito was the 2nd best climber in the world.

And its not just 10%. The Cauberg isnt that steep is it? He was awsesome there.

 

[Sasquatch]

It was just a general list, some riders like Rujano and Sella I haven't really followed at all but I just went on my instincts if I thought they should go on the list.

lol and this is coming from someone who thinks this.

I think he [Morabito] could ride a top 11-15 but probably not a top 10. .

You need to take off those rose-coloured glasses you have for BMC and riders you think are attractive and look to other riders. Your credibility has now totally been shot (if it wasn't beforehand).

You have no idea what you're saying and this proves it. You think Morabito can go well but refuse to rate guys like Sella (who has won stages of the Giro) and Rujano (who has come top 10 in the giro) who have all shown more than what Morabito ever will.

You my friend need to take off those rose-coloured glasses.

 

[Sasquatch]

And the other riders on your list have?



And the other riders on your list arent?



And the other riders on your list have?

Seriously ACF what have you got agains these guys. You similarly left Sella out of the list for Trentino on the basis that "he was a doper" while including Schumacher and Garzelli

Don't pay attention to what he says. He clearly has no knowledge of cycling considering he rates Morabito higher than these guys and other guys. lol.

 

[bicing]

Contador is the man. He will win!

Igor Anton is the 2nd man for this Giro. Super at the Vuelta, and this is a more mountainous course which will suit him better. TTs won't be decisive. Anton.

If it weren't for his illness I'd have said Sastre to top 5 for similar reasons, despite his age. But in addition, he's in a hot-shot team again like Le Tour 2008, he's in a new team like Giro 2009. Sastre.

 

[Sasquatch]

*** edited by mod ***

 

[Duartista]

Yes. I'm agree with you сompletely. Plus I can imagine Purito cracking very seriously on one of the stages. It's very unlikely as for Nibali.

Yep, that's why I'd put Nibali and Menchov ahead of Rujano and Purito as well. If in form they will keep going for three weeks, which you can't guarantee with Rodriguez, let alone Rujano.

That said, the toughness of this year's route makes predictions difficult. We might see riders cracking who don't normally do so. Maybe even Contador will struggle with the succession of 200km plus stages during the final week.

 

[Sasquatch]

Out of interest, who do you rank as the top 3 climbers in last years tour btw?

And the point is if Menchov contends he will get a lot of time from tt. If rujano contends it will be all in the mountains. Rujano might not show up but if he does I think his climbing will be better than the Popes.

As for J rod, im starting to think Rujano was onto something when he said Purito was the 2nd best climber in the world.

And its not just 10%. The Cauberg isnt that steep is it? He was awsesome there.

J-Rod is clearly one of the best top 3 climbers in the world. If he could time trial, he would win a few GT's.

 

[Sasquatch]

Yep, that's why I'd put Nibali and Menchov ahead of Rujano and Purito as well. If in form they will keep going for three weeks, which you can't guarantee with Rodriguez, let alone Rujano.

That said, the toughness of this year's route makes predictions difficult. We might see riders cracking who don't normally do so. Maybe even Contador will struggle with the succession of 200km plus stages during the final week.

Rodriguez has shown twice last year in the space of 3 months that he can last 3 weeks without cracking.

TDF last year he was the third best climber in the race behind Andy Schleck and Alberto Contador.

In the Vuelta he was the 2nd best climber over the duration of the three weeks.

The reason why he didn't have the results he could have was because of his poor time trials which wasn't him cracking. It was just he can't time trial.

He proved himself in those 2 tours that he can climb consistently. He should be able to last the Giro if he has the same form. And from what we can tell, he is in that form or maybe even better.

 

[airstream]

And the point is if Menchov contends he will get a lot of time from tt. If rujano contends it will be all in the mountains. Rujano might not show up but if he does I think his climbing will be better than the Popes.

As for J rod, im starting to think Rujano was onto something when he said Purito was the 2nd best climber in the world.

And its not just 10%. The Cauberg isnt that steep is it? He was awsesome there.

Are you serious? What didn't Rujano contend in 2006, 2008? His time is over. He doesn't even dream more than about one stage.

 

[Duartista]

J-Rod is clearly one of the best top 3 climbers in the world. If he could time trial, he would win a few GT's.

No he isn't. Contador, Schleck and Anton are all better if we're talking high mountains, for a start.

 

[Sasquatch]

No he isn't. Contador, Schleck and Anton are all better if we're talking high mountains, for a start.

Rodriguez is better than Anton.

Rodriguez has shown he is. Anton has not.

Rodriguez is the third best climber in the world and will soon overtake Andy Schleck.

I guarantee that a lot of the MTF's in this years Giro will be Contador/Rodriguez in no particular order.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

rodriguez is a great climber but not when climbs are longer than 20 km or above 2000 metres, he has the same problem as evans but even more so.

 

[hrotha]

TDF last year he was the third best climber in the race behind Andy Schleck and Alberto Contador.

No, he wasn't. He lost time to Menchov and Samu almost every day. The only time he outclimbed them (Mende excluded, since it's tailor-made for him) was at the Tourmalet.

 

[Duartista]

Rodriguez has shown twice last year in the space of 3 months that he can last 3 weeks without cracking.

TDF last year he was the third best climber in the race behind Andy Schleck and Alberto Contador.

In the Vuelta he was the 2nd best climber over the duration of the three weeks.

The reason why he didn't have the results he could have was because of his poor time trials which wasn't him cracking. It was just he can't time trial.

He proved himself in those 2 tours that he can climb consistently. He should be able to last the Giro if he has the same form. And from what we can tell, he is in that form or maybe even better.

He cracked on the Andorra stage in the Vuelta. In the tour he lost time on the Madeleine and Port de Bales stages.

 

[Lanark]

Out of interest, who do you rank as the top 3 climbers in last years tour btw?

And the point is if Menchov contends he will get a lot of time from tt. If rujano contends it will be all in the mountains. Rujano might not show up but if he does I think his climbing will be better than the Popes.

As for J rod, im starting to think Rujano was onto something when he said Purito was the 2nd best climber in the world.

And its not just 10%. The Cauberg isnt that steep is it? He was awsesome there.

Last years Tour I would put Contador and Schleck as the two best (probably on the same level), Samuel Sanchez behind that, and Menchov after that.

I would love to see Rujano find his 2005 legs again, but I just don't think it's very likely. Over the last five years, Menchovs climbing palmares is clearly superior to Rujanos.

Rodriguez is a wild card. He seems to have a great shape maybe a bit too early, but he should still be fresh because he hasn't shown much before this week. The part of the Cauberg where he attacked is about 12% btw. But the Zoncolan, Grossglockner and Finestre should suit him very well.

If everyone arrives in shape, this could be one of the most hotly contested Giro's in ages, I really can't wait. The only potential to spoil the party is a too dominant Contador.