Well, I did the power calculations for the climb to Arcalis for Contador only. Before I give you these values I must say that I went back to tune the formulas with the power outputs from this page.
1- I took the power numbers from this link to compare with my calculations:
Numbers from this link:
Lance Armstrong 2004 Time Trial Alpe D’Huez: 470 W (6.53 W/kg)
Marco Pantani Record Time 1995: 403 W (7.1 W/kg)
2- My calculated Numbers from this link are:
Lance Armstrong 2004 Time Trial Alpe D’Huez: 468 W (6.5 W/kg)
Marco Pantani Record Time 1995: 398 W (6.98 W/kg)
Take into account hot temperatures during the summer so an increase in rolling resistance (0.005), but air temperature is lower. I am also assuming some head wind but not much. 0 km/hr would be almost equivalent to complete draft which is not the case because they are both alone on the climb.
Armstrong’s Weight: 72 Kg (158.76 lbs)
Pantani’s Weight: 57 kg (126 lbs aprox)
3- My calculated numbers from this page (Lower Rolling resistance 0.004, cannot adjust and average drag, not drafting)
Lance Armstrong 2004 Time Trial Alpe D’Huez: 458 W (6.4 W/kg)
Marco Pantani Record Time 1995: 387 W (6.8 W/kg)
4- Final numbers for Contador on the climb to Arcalis are:
Weight: 61 kg (134.5 lbs)
Distance: 10.6 km
Average speed up the climb: 14.81685 mph (23.8403 km/hr)
Drag: Assume some head wind. Note that he was drafting for most of the climb but the wind still is going to drag you down from what I saw in the TV.
Power Output (#3): 402
W (6.6 W/kg) (Average drag)
Power Output (#2): 417
W (6.8 W/kg) (398
W if you assume 70% time drafting completely)
If you do what we call in engineering a “tornado chart” you’ll find that some variables are more important than others so don’t focus on the small details. Important variables are weight, speed and gradient. Wind can be a big factor had Contador been exposed to the head wind all the time which was not the case here. But if that was the case then his power output would have been closer to 450 W
Now we all know that this is not the same as having an actual power output machine, but this is a forum and what would we talk about if we can not speculate about things like this.
Now, you be the Judge.
BTW: In the link #2 there is a chart for time to exhaustion for a healthy person versus a first class athlete. The numbers from 390 to 470 W are off the chart. They don't fit that chart.